Senate Democrats say they'll expand the battlefield to Texas and Florida
But victory means pulling off a feat no Democrat has managed in 16 years
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced on Thursday that it would air TV ads for the first time in Florida and Texas, saying it was making a "multi-million dollar investment" in the hopes of unseating Sens. Rick Scott and Ted Cruz.The DSCC, which did not disclose how much it would devote to these two expensive states, is hoping its opening offensive will give it a chance to expand the battleground in a year that, until now, it's been entirely on the defensive.
With Senate Republicans all but assured of flipping West Virginia and polling ahead of Sen. Jon Tester in Montana, Democrats are looking for any opportunity to shift the map onto red turf. Should Tester's opponent, Republican Tim Sheehy, prevail, that would likely hand the Senate to the GOP unless Democrats can break through elsewhere.
But if Texas Rep. Colin Allred and former Florida Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell are to win, they'll likely need to pull off an accomplishment that only three challengers have managed in the last 30 years: Since 1992, only three sitting senators have lost reelection while their party's presidential nominee was carrying their state.
The most recent instance came in 2008, when Alaska Republican Ted Stevens lost a tight race to Democrat Mark Begich. Notably, Stevens' defeat came just eight days after he was convicted on federal corruption charges.
Both Florida and Texas are likely to remain red at the top of the ticket: Donald Trump carried both states during each of his presidential bids, and Kamala Harris' campaign currently isn't targeting either state.
And while these two giant Sun Belt states attract far less attention from pollsters than battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, what limited data there is shows the GOP ticket in the lead. Polling averages from 538 have Trump ahead in Florida 50-46, while Scott has a similar 46-42 advantage. The situation is a bit different for Cruz, though: While he outpaces Allred 47-44, that's smaller than Trump's 51-45 edge.
But both Democratic candidates are hoping their opponents' flaws will give them an opening to win over crossover support.
Scott's main weakness may be a plan he unveiled in 2022 to "sunset" all federal legislation after five years—including Social Security. Democrats across the nation were all too happy to highlight Scott's proposal, including Joe Biden, who attacked it in his State of the Union address the next year. But some of the most damning criticism came from a fellow Republican.
"I think it will be a challenge for him to deal with this in his own reelection in Florida, a state with more elderly people than any state in America," said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of the Floridian who months earlier had tried to oust him as the GOP's Senate leader. Mucarsel-Powell has also attacked Scott for opposing a ballot measure that would undo Florida's six-week abortion ban.
Cruz, for his part, has tried to soften his far-right image. Allred, though, has other ideas. "We should gradually increase the retirement age," the audience sees Cruz declare in one of the congressman's ads. The commercial goes on to highlight the senator's infamous vacation to Cancun during the 2021 freeze that left his constituents in the cold, an attack that Allred's used against him in other spots.
The DSCC's opening buys come at a time when Republicans appeared poised to dominate the airwaves. AdImpact, which does not yet factor in the committee's investment, says that Cruz's side has $18 million in ad time reserved for the rest of the campaign, which is 10 times what Democrats have booked.
And while Democrats in Florida hold a $1.2 million to $380,000 advantage, Scott's massive wealth allows him to regain the initiative if he feels threatened. The senator self-funded $14 million through the end of July and can easily contribute much more: In 2018, he poured in $64 million in his successful campaign to defeat Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson.
Morning Digest: Senate Democrats say they'll expand the battlefield to Texas and Florida
But victory means pulling off a feat no Democrat has managed in 16 years
www.the-downballot.com