Amazon Will Be a Three Trillion Dollar Company (AMZN)

[Mask]

Amazon Will Be a Three Trillion Dollar Company (AMZN)

Investors looking to go long in retail should seriously consider Amazon.com Inc (AMZN), according to venture capitalist ChamathPalihapitiya.

Palihapitiya, CEO and founder of Social Capital LP, speaking at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York Wednesday, said Amazon was a “multi-trillion dollar monopoly hiding in plain sight”. He predicts that within 10 years the company will be worth $3 trillion.

Amazon's trillion dollar leap will be helped by three main components of its business: Retail, web services and innovative business practices, according to Palihapitiya. Further breaking down the numbers, he clarified -- $1 trillion will come from its retail operations, $1.5 trillion from Amazon Web Services (AWS) and $0.5 trillion from cash and other investments. (See also: What is Amazon Web Services and Why Is It So Successful? )

Where Is This Valuation Coming From?
The leading driver of increased retail sales would be Amazon Prime, he said. Amazon’s Prime members are estimated to be between 60 and 80 million and increasing. With Prime members spending almost double the amount of non-Prime members (and paying a $99 a year fee), focus has been on growing the membership with value-added services.

Palihapitiya elaborated on the “unbelievable opportunity” that is Amazon Web Services. He stated that under-estimating the value of the quickly growing cloud web services division of Amazon would be a mistake. Within 10 years, Palihapitiya believes that the AWS will have a monopoly in the Internet services. The AWS will have a disruptive effect on the IT market space. This monopoly would spin-off an estimated $432 billion in high-margin revenue and would add $1.5 trillion to Amazon’s market cap, he said. (See also: Patience Will Pay With Amazon Prime.)

“In order to understand the value of AWS, we think that Jeff [Bezos] is going to completely disrupt this market. There are going to be unbelievable numbers of losers as AWS gets to scale,” Palihapitiya elaborated.

On the retail side Palihapitiya reasoned that the company would only have to quintuple its sales units from 6 billion to 30 billion a year to reach a $1 trillion valuation. The final $0.5 trillion would be made up of cash and other inventions that Amazon has in the works.

The Bottom Line
Palihapitiya bets on consumer consumption and the power of the Internet. But his ringing endorsement of Amazon had little effect on its share price. After falling overnight, Amazon opened at $662.59 and was up 1.25% to close at $670.90.

 

[futureshock]

A few years ago, it was said that this was the only company that was viewed as a "threat" to google's search engine.


Amazon Is the Starting Point For 44 Percent Of Consumers Searching For Products. Is Google Losing, Then?
A new survey compares Amazon and search engine performance to an earlier study. A look at what the comparison might actually signal about product search trends.
Ginny Marvin on October 8, 2015 at 11:31 am

In a survey of 2,000 US consumers, 44 percent of respondents said they go directly to Amazon to start their product searches. That compares to 34 percent who said they use search engines like Google, Bing and Yahoo to search for products. Just 21 percent of searchers said they start on a retailer site, according to the study conducted by Survata for e-commerce personalization startup BloomReach.

For a look at how these search trends have shifted among Amazon and search engines, the press release about the BloomReach study pointed to a 2013 Forrester report found that 30 percent of online buyers use Amazon to research products first, while just 13 percent started on Google.

Most of the coverage about the latest study has focused on this comparison pointing to Amazon’s growing dominance. Yet if we look more closely at what the Survata study and Forrester reports show, it seems clear that search has at least held pace with Amazon’s growth.

Comparing two different studies is imperfect– the Forrester study looked at Google alone, while the latest Survata study commissioned by BloomReach asked consumers about search engine use generally — but here’s how the stats from the two look when charted:

*2013 Forrester search engines question only captured consumers who said they began with Google. 2015 Survata survey included Bing and Yahoo in the question

Even if we generously estimate that search engines as a whole (including Bing and Yahoo) had a 20 percent product search share in 2013, both channels would each have been up 14 points.

As Google commands some 65 percent of the US search market, the comparison of these studies arguably shows that search — and Google Shopping, in particular — has done more to cannibalize Amazon product search growth than the other way around.

Apps Versus Mobile Web
Others point to Amazon’s app growth as reason for Google to be concerned. Recent Morgan Stanley research showed that more than 50 percent of Amazon’s mobile traffic growth is coming from its app. Yet it also noted that overall mobile-browser traffic is twice the size of the app market and growing 1.2 times faster.

Same Store Sales Comparison
By another comparison, on Thursday, ChannelAdvisor released its Same Store Sales (SSS) report for September:

• Amazon SSS were up 19.2 percent, but that was a 12-month low, down from 24.7 percent in August.
• Google Shopping SSS saw 46.1 percent growth, driven by higher conversion rates.

The Google numbers only capture Google Shopping ads in search, not all product searches happening on Google or the other engines, yet it’s another measure signaling that Google’s moves against Amazon with shopping ads are making more of an impact on consumer behavior than the BloomReach study and subsequent reporting on it would indicate.

Does Amazon continue to capture share of mind among consumers looking to research products? Certainly, but there are also cracks in the argument that its dominance is increasing. This is all to say that the battle over product search is murkier than one study might indicate.

http://marketingland.com/amazon-is-...ing-for-products-is-search-losing-then-145647

 

[Louis Koo]

4 horsemen

google
apple
amazon
facebook

 

[Flawless]

Tesla, not sure about apple in the long run.

 

[Mask]

4 horsemen

google
apple
amazon
facebook

I'm researching ways to tap into the traffic from 3 of the 4

 

[Camille]

I go to amazon first, I have prime and LOVE two day shipping. If I'm really searching for a better price I go to google shopping. Even if I'm buying locally I'll check amazon for reviews. I also have an app, Shop Savvy, that will compare prices and give alerts, but I always forget to use it.

 

[TENT]

I actually like Amazon use it not stop.
Should use it even more.

 

[Pworld297]

Man they got any and everything on Amazon. Prices are good and with Prime, no shipping cost. I just bought and Instant pot off there and that thing is amazing. It was on sale for $68. Don't sleep on Ebay either, they have even better deals and you don't pay taxes most of the time.

 

[Mask]

I go to amazon first, I have prime and LOVE two day shipping. If I'm really searching for a better price I go to google shopping. Even if I'm buying locally I'll check amazon for reviews. I also have an app, Shop Savvy, that will compare prices and give alerts, but I always forget to use it.

What are the alerts about on Shop Savvy

 

[Camille]

What are the alerts about on Shop Savvy

If the price drops it will alert you. You can add stuff to a watch list. It's a nice app. I saw it on Dr OZ...lol...
It doesn't play very well on my phone because I have a blackberry and a sort of hacked version of the google play store, and so I get google services needed errors, but ppl using android shouldn't have a problem.

http://shopsavvy.com/

 

[Louis Koo]

Man they got any and everything on Amazon. Prices are good and with Prime, no shipping cost. I just bought and Instant pot off there and that thing is amazing. It was on sale for $68. Don't sleep on Ebay either, they have even better deals and you don't pay taxes most of the time.

camelcamelcamel

 

[Mask]

If the price drops it will alert you. You can add stuff to a watch list. It's a nice app. I saw it on Dr OZ...lol...
It doesn't play very well on my phone because I have a blackberry and a sort of hacked version of the google play store, and so I get google services needed errors, but ppl using android shouldn't have a problem.

http://shopsavvy.com/

Kool...

 

[Camille]

Man they got any and everything on Amazon. Prices are good and with Prime, no shipping cost. I just bought and Instant pot off there and that thing is amazing. It was on sale for $68. Don't sleep on Ebay either, they have even better deals and you don't pay taxes most of the time.

Ebay also has a lot of outlet stores, where manufacturers resell returned goods they factory refurbish and can't sell as new. I'm trying to decide if I'm going to get this acer monitor there. Depending on amazon's pricing it will be 50-100 less. Warranty is only 90 days but that should be enough time to see if there is a problem.

 

[Pworld297]

Ebay also has a lot of outlet stores, where manufacturers resell returned goods they factory refurbish and can't sell as new. I'm trying to decide if I'm going to get this acer monitor there. Depending on amazon's pricing it will be 50-100 less. Warranty is only 90 days but that should be enough time to see if there is a problem.

Yeah I bought a few refurb products off of Ebay, they be like brand new. I recently got this Sony receiver and it works great, haven't had any issues with it.

 

[playahaitian]

If the price drops it will alert you. You can add stuff to a watch list. It's a nice app. I saw it on Dr OZ...lol...
It doesn't play very well on my phone because I have a blackberry and a sort of hacked version of the google play store, and so I get google services needed errors, but ppl using android shouldn't have a problem.

http://shopsavvy.com/

Thanks will definitely check this out.

 

[playahaitian]

Ebay also has a lot of outlet stores, where manufacturers resell returned goods they factory refurbish and can't sell as new. I'm trying to decide if I'm going to get this acer monitor there. Depending on amazon's pricing it will be 50-100 less. Warranty is only 90 days but that should be enough time to see if there is a problem.

Why am I JUST hearing about this?

I need some details, do u buy the items straight from ebay?

 

[Camille]

Why am I JUST hearing about this?

I need some details, do u buy the items straight from ebay?

Yeah they are ebay sellers just like everyone else. Here is the link to the acer store, they have returned laptops, monitors, everything...

http://stores.ebay.com/Acer?_trksid=p2047675.l2563

 

[futureshock]

I go to amazon first, I have prime and LOVE two day shipping.

Last year Amazon started same day shipping and Sunday delivery in parts of Atlanta. The bad news is that they use a 3rd party vendor called Lasership. Sometimes Lasership does not complete the same day delivery process as ordered. Meaning if I choose same day delivery, I have noticed that sometimes the drivers would never show up (traffic, cold, running late, tired, etc) and I would get a delivery attempt made status update on my order and they will try again tomorrow. So I would have paid for the same day delivery and not received my purchase as promised. I just could have done 1 or 2 day delivery instead.


As a work around, it was suggested that once you get your tracking order, just call Lasership dispatch and tell them to message the driver directly and give them delivery instructions like: I AM HOME...DO NOT FAIL TO MAKE A DELIVERY ATTEMPT OR I WILL REPORT YOU!

Problem solved, the order will be delivered on time without any issues.

 

[Camille]

Why am I JUST hearing about this?

I need some details, do u buy the items straight from ebay?

Here are a few more:

Barnes and Noble:
http://stores.ebay.com/Barnes-and-Noble-Store


NewEgg:
http://stores.ebay.com/Newegg Most of their stuff is new, they just are getting rid of stuff.

Woot:
http://www.ebay.com/usr/woot_deals

Ebags:
http://www.ebay.com/usr/ebags Sometimes ebay is cheaper, sometimes the main site.


I could have sworn there was one for Best Buy but I couldn't find it. The Dell and Tiger direct stores
didn't have any items.

Not ebay but discounted:

Dell Refurbs:
http://dellrefurbished.com/

Lenovo:
http://outlet.lenovo.com/outlet_us/

Newegg:
http://www.newegg.com/Refurbished/Store

 

[Camille]

Last year Amazon started same day shipping and Sunday delivery parts of Atlanta. The bad news is that they use a 3rd party vendor called Lasership. Sometimes Lasership does not complete the same day delivery process as ordered. Meaning if I choose same day delivery, I have noticed that sometimes the drivers would never show up (traffic, cold, running late, tired, etc) and I would get a delivery attempt made status update on my order and they will try again tomorrow. So I would have paid for the same day delivery and not received my purchase as promised. I just could have done 1 or 2 day delivery instead.


As a work around, it was suggested that once you get your tracking order, just call Lasership dispatch and tell them to message the driver directly and give them delivery instructions like: I AM HOME...DO NOT FAIL TO MAKE A DELIVERY ATTEMPT OR I WILL REPORT YOU!

Problem solved, the order will be delivered at time without any issues.

We don't get same day shipping, but I've had stuff delivered on Sunday. I'm conflicted when it comes to amazon. I've been shopping with them since 1998. Last year I had over 90 orders...lol... (DON'T JUDGE ME!!) I try to patronize places that give a damn about their employees, and amazon has a poor track record, but they have FREE TWO DAY SHIPPING. I read where workers had passed out because of the heat in their warehouses and poor working conditions, but they have FREE TWO DAY SHIPPING. I know I ain't shit. But damn, I have FREE TWO DAY SHIPPING.
*sigh* So far I'm living ok with the guilt and rationalizing that I've read they have improved some. I might commit crimes to keep my FREE TWO DAY SHIPPING!!! That is my favorite phrase in the entire world. Just music to my ears.... FREE TWO DAY SHIPPING!!!

 

[VAiz4hustlaz]

4 horsemen

google
apple
amazon
facebook

Microsoft???

 

[Louis Koo]

Microsoft???

Oracle???

 

[Mask]

Bump on the strength of Kay page

 

[ScottyPiffen745]

Amazon fucking the game up with drone shit, sunday deliveries and the option to pay for Prime monthly instead of yearly.

I get damn near everything except food off Amazon now.

 

[water]

Told you all years ago.

what that vc doesn't know is that there is another cold war going on

Alexa and voice app store

NLP AI via messaging

 

[Spectrum]

Told you all years ago.

what that vc doesn't know is that there is another cold war going on

Alexa and voice app store

NLP AI via messaging

and Alexa shits all over Siri. Viv (by Siri's founders) looks cool though... at least in the controlled environment they debuted it in.

 

[ShortyCumStain]

Amazon Prime >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

[gene cisco]

Man, once they start getting that same day delivery in more areas....

 

[Camille]

Amazon is great on refunds also. I've only ever had to return 2-3 items over the years, but they basically issue credit as soon as the ups label is scanned. One time I went to ups, came home and the credit had already hit my bank. I couldn't believe it.

 

[CPT Callamity]

I've been rolling with Amazon Prime.
I had a problem with Lasership at one point but that was only for one day shipping. Anytime I use regular Prime 2 day, it's on time. When I go to stores now, it is mostly to browse and see it physically for myself, then I go order it on Amazon for less.

 

[Camille]

I've been rolling with Amazon Prime.
I had a problem with Lasership at one point but that was only for one day shipping. Anytime I use regular Prime 2 day, it's on time. When I go to stores now, it is mostly to browse and see it physically for myself, then I go order it on Amazon for less.

Between amazon reviews and youtube reviews/unboxing videos, you probably don't even have to do that. I know they are killing brick and mortar stores, but man is it convenient. I still buy some items locally, but man is it nice not to HAVE to do it if I don't want to.

 

[CPT Callamity]

Luckily I have stores like Microcenter near me. I'm a DIY cat and don't want to wait or want to get a good local deal so I can pick up other stuff I need to. Amazon, Newegg and Slickdeals usually keep me well stocked on the tech. I still like to go to stores and browse a bit. Microcenter has discounts on MB and CPU combos, plus if a monitor goes out, I can pick up a 23 or 24" out the door for around $100.

 

[Camille]

Luckily I have stores like Microcenter near me. I'm a DIY cat and don't want to wait or want to get a good local deal so I can pick up other stuff I need to. Amazon, Newegg and Slickdeals usually keep me well stocked on the tech. I still like to go to stores and browse a bit. Microcenter has discounts on MB and CPU combos, plus if a monitor goes out, I can pick up a 23 or 24" out the door for around $100.

Man I used to love microcenter. We have one here but it's not convenient to get to so I don't go often. I don't think I get their sale ads anymore either. So out of sight, out of mind. I don't have a high demand for tech items anymore. The pc I have now is a Dell relic. I've had it since 2004. (Lemmelone...lol...) I upgraded the RAM myself, but even that I ordered online. My monitor went out last year, but I got another one just like it for like 40 bucks, because I liked the ring design. It was probably repairable, but I don't know how to do that stuff. Acer and asus make a similar design I came across last month. I think I'm going to go with the Acer h277h, it looks sturdier. The one I have now is working fine, but I wanted the Acer as it is larger and has the built in blue light filter. It was 276 last month, it's on sale now for 229, but I can get one refurbished through Acer for 169 on ebay. If I buy it new though it has a 3 year warranty. I've had good luck with monitors, but you never know what the build quality is like these days. I'm thinking of getting a laptop, but honestly, the lil stuff I do online, it's hard to justify when the one I have is working perfectly. I don't even use my tablets anymore, I have just been using my cellphone.

 

[Quek9]

Man I used to love microcenter. We have one here but it's not convenient to get to so I don't go often. I don't think I get their sale ads anymore either. So out of sight, out of mind. I don't have a high demand for tech items anymore. The pc I have now is a Dell relic. I've had it since 2004. (Lemmelone...lol...) I upgraded the RAM myself, but even that I ordered online. My monitor went out last year, but I got another one just like it for like 40 bucks, because I liked the ring design. It was probably repairable, but I don't know how to do that stuff. Acer and asus make a similar design I came across last month. I think I'm going to go with the Acer h277h, it looks sturdier. The one I have now is working fine, but I wanted the Acer as it is larger and has the built in blue light filter. It was 276 last month, it's on sale now for 229, but I can get one refurbished through Acer for 169 on ebay. If I buy it new though it has a 3 year warranty. I've had good luck with monitors, but you never know what the build quality is like these days. I'm thinking of getting a laptop, but honestly, the lil stuff I do online, it's hard to justify when the one I have is working perfectly. I don't even use my tablets anymore, I have just been using my cellphone.

Microcenter is too damn far from me too. Fry's have some great clearance sales too.

 

[water]

and Alexa shits all over Siri. Viv (by Siri's founders) looks cool though... at least in the controlled environment they debuted it in.