What would it take and how would a 3rd party candidate have realistic shot at winning the Presidential general election - mature discussion

[geechiedan]

In the modern era what would take for a third party candidate to gain enough traction in mainstream America to have an actual chance at winning the Presidency?

I think that candidate would have to be moderate enough to peel off support from both Dems and GOP and those that left would be disaffected moderates in both parties.

That person would most definitely have to be charismatic AF. On the young side most likely (50s or younger) And most likely white male. MAYBE non white male but probably not African American specifically as thats still too controversial for lack of a more precise word.

The candidate that had the most realistic shot in our lifetime so far was Ross Perot but he was at his core a conservative and republicans still blame him for splitting the conservative enough for Clinton to get in.

I thought of this late in Trumps 2016 run.... that if he ran as an independant he would have probably have had enough appeal to blow away the republican candidate and STILL give Clinton a good run from that position. Trump (with some tweaks here and there) would have probably been the person who had the best chance of legitimizing a 3rd party choice on the big state...again WITH SOME TWEAKS.

WHAT DO YOU THINK IT WOULD TAKE FOR A 3RD PARTY TO BE A LEGIT CHOICE AND NOT JUST A SPOILER VOTE FOR THE MAIN TWO???

again this a serious topic not some troll bait back and forth...I really want to examine and scenario how this would go??

 

[blackpepper]

I been smoking but still.... If they loose this cycle I think the likely contraction of the GOP will offer an opportunity for a third party to gain serious traction. The old GOP could keep MAGA and a new party could form around the reagan type conservatives. If that new conservative party is willing to move away from its racist, bigoted, and sexist history it could have a chance.

 

[trstar]

How about trying something realistic, like a congressional seat or a state seat?

They act like losers and spoilers, this should be treated as such.

Come up with real policies for citizens WITH plans for execution.

 

[D24OHA]

I been smoking but still.... If they loose this cycle I think the likely contraction of the GOP will offer an opportunity for a third party to gain serious traction. The old GOP could keep MAGA and a new party could form around the reagan type conservatives. If that new conservative party is willing to move away from its racist, bigoted, and sexist history it could have a chance.

You have a point.....


I think drumpf losing could definitely spark and new major 3rd party. A more center conservative/liberal party.....

A lot of people on both sides like to consider themselves "fiscally conservative, but socially liberal" or vice versa......

They would need to attract those people that think both parties have gone to their respective extremes. Like a Jon Fetterman (sp?)

If there was a party that focused on what they could agree on, (better immigration policy, sensible gun laws thay dont "tread on" people, better healthcare for the middle class, tax breaks for the middle class, trans people not impeding on his women....etc

I think that if it were just a fractured conservative partt they could make noise (a la Tea Party), bUT they wouldn't have the numbers to really be a threat to the two party system.........

However, if they let religion, abortion....etc keep them divided, they again make noise but eventually fold into one of the 2 parties that shares those values.

 

[D24OHA]

How about trying something realistic, like a congressional seat or a state seat?

They act like losers and spoilers, this should be treated as such.

Come up with real policies for citizens WITH plans for execution.

The breakfast club recently had the Working Families and Power Party on, Naturi Naughton supports/represents them, and they got a judge elected. That's their goal to get enough people elected locally and potentially federally (judges and etc) that once they get the numbers they can try for a major election candidate.

But the bar is higher now than ever,

In 1992 Ross Perot, a legitimate billionaire, financed nearly all of his campaign and was still only able to get about 19% of the popular vote, winning 0 states......

A true contender today would need considerable donations and centric support. No other 3rd party candidate has performed remotely as well as Perot.

 

[blackpepper]

There are still a lot of issues that would have to be bridged, but who knows. Like I said if a new conservative party could purge its traditions of racism, bigotry, and sexism they could attract a lot more people.

 

[geechiedan]

I been smoking but still.... If they loose this cycle I think the likely contraction of the GOP will offer an opportunity for a third party to gain serious traction. The old GOP could keep MAGA and a new party could form around the reagan type conservatives. If that new conservative party is willing to move away from its racist, bigoted, and sexist history it could have a chance.

yeah but thats just a branch off the conservative wing...I dont see that attracting too many left wing people to make it threat to the big 2 equally.

 

[geechiedan]

How about trying something realistic, like a congressional seat or a state seat?

They act like losers and spoilers, this should be treated as such.

Come up with real policies for citizens WITH plans for execution.

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Alaska House of Representatives District 1	Daniel Ortiz	January 17, 2023	Independent
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Vermont House of Representatives Chittenden 15 District	Brian Cina	January 4, 2023	Vermont Progressive Party
Vermont House of Representatives Chittenden 21 District	Taylor Small	January 4, 2023	Vermont Progressive Party
Vermont House of Representatives Lamoille 1 District	Jed Lipsky	January 4, 2023	Independent
Vermont House of Representatives Rutland 3 District	Jarrod Sammis	January 4, 2023	Libertarian Party
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[blackpepper]

yeah but thats just a branch off the conservative wing...I dont see that attracting too many left wing people to make it threat to the big 2 equally.

It would take some black magic, but if they could embrace environmental protections and healthcare cost containment that would get some leftys.

 

[julian]

realistically no chance.but the only way it could happen under the current 2 party system is an independent with Dem leanings that has huge money and can put together a ground game to win California,NY,Illinois, after that it would be math can they get the other states to get to 270? without a strategy like that no way a 3rd party can be a threat. Someone like Mark Cuban as an independent would have a chanve if the Dems ran someone very unpopular and the GOP ran a worst version of Trump. Under that unique election Cuban could win the big 3 blue states AND win the big 2 red states of Texas and Fla.

 

[geechiedan]

It would take some black magic, but if they could embrace environmental protections and healthcare cost containment that would get some leftys.

 

[geechiedan]

realistically no chance.but the only way it could happen under the current 2 party system is an independent with Dem leanings that has huge money and can put together a ground game to win California,NY,Illinois, after that it would be math can they get the other states to get to 270? without a strategy like that no way a 3rd party can be a threat. Someone like Mark Cuban as an independent would have a chanve if the Dems ran someone very unpopular and the GOP ran a worst version of Trump. Under that unique election Cuban could win the big 3 blue states AND win the big 2 red states of Texas and Fla.

interesting scenario...

 

[geechiedan]

It would take some black magic, but if they could embrace environmental protections and healthcare cost containment that would get some leftys.

realistically no chance.but the only way it could happen under the current 2 party system is an independent with Dem leanings that has huge money and can put together a ground game to win California,NY,Illinois, after that it would be math can they get the other states to get to 270? without a strategy like that no way a 3rd party can be a threat. Someone like Mark Cuban as an independent would have a chanve if the Dems ran someone very unpopular and the GOP ran a worst version of Trump. Under that unique election Cuban could win the big 3 blue states AND win the big 2 red states of Texas and Fla.

that person would have to be the Tom Brady of candidates..threading so many needles and alot of luck and good breaks. But IF that person won it certainly work to solidify that 3rd party as a viable choice and not just some symbolic statement.

 

[julian]

that person would have to be the Tom Brady of candidates..threading so many needles and alot of luck and good breaks. But IF that person won it certainly work to solidify that 3rd party as a viable choice and not just some symbolic statement.

absolutely but I could see Mark Cuban legtimately having a chance cause he is perceived as being both progressive and conservative but not in an asshole type way. As a legit billionaire and sports celebrity he could bridge some gaps. lets say its 2032 and Harris is a 2 term President leaving office sucessful and the Dems nominate Pete Bootyman and the GOP nominates Josh Hawley 2 very unpopular candidates Pete cause hes gay and Josh cause hes super asshole Cuban would have a chance

 

[D24OHA]

realistically no chance.but the only way it could happen under the current 2 party system is an independent with Dem leanings that has huge money and can put together a ground game to win California,NY,Illinois, after that it would be math can they get the other states to get to 270? without a strategy like that no way a 3rd party can be a threat. Someone like Mark Cuban as an independent would have a chanve if the Dems ran someone very unpopular and the GOP ran a worst version of Trump. Under that unique election Cuban could win the big 3 blue states AND win the big 2 red states of Texas and Fla.

you think Mark Cuban is winning super red ass Fl AND Tx?!!

maybe TX, but I don't see Fl happening.

Dem leanings is one thing, AND big money is another........

Maybe the Rock could win on a centralist platform. Have a notable face as vp or as a prominent person on the cabinet.......

 

[geechiedan]

absolutely but I could see Mark Cuban legtimately having a chance cause he is perceived as being both progressive and conservative but not in an asshole type way. As a legit billionaire and sports celebrity he could bridge some gaps. lets say its 2032 and Harris is a 2 term President leaving office sucessful and the Dems nominate Pete Bootyman and the GOP nominates Josh Hawley 2 very unpopular candidates Pete cause hes gay and Josh cause hes super asshole Cuban would have a chance

 

[geechiedan]

you think Mark Cuban is winning super red ass Fl AND Tx?!!

maybe TX, but I don't see Fl happening.

Dem leanings is one thing, AND big money is another........

Maybe the Rock could win on a centralist platform. Have a notable face as vp or as a prominent person on the cabinet.......

do you mean the rock as a VP pick for cuban or running as a candidate himself?? A VP pick for Cuban would be an interesting team up...but maybe a bit TOO hollywoodish?? between the chicanery of the big 2 and the media theyd be dirtied up FAST...but the great part of 2024 trump running is a convicted sex offending felon whose been impeached TWICE sets SO MANY precedences for the qualification of a presidential candidate that you cant complain that someone isnt fit for that office based on some unsavory past.

 

[D24OHA]

do you mean the rock as a VP pick for cuban or running as a candidate himself?? A VP pick for Cuban would be an interesting team up...but maybe a bit TOO hollywoodish??

That's the problem, both of them have big egos..... who would be willing to be VP "for the greater good of the nation?"

But yeah they might just have the formula to win, a true/legitimate billionaire businessman, with no known felony conviction, the rock's star power and equally mistly "clean" reputation......

 

[blackpepper]

that person would have to be the Tom Brady of candidates..threading so many needles and alot of luck and good breaks. But IF that person won it certainly work to solidify that 3rd party as a viable choice and not just some symbolic statement.

Even if a third party didn't win a presidential campaign they could still have a major impact. Imagine if they won half a dozen senate races or a couple dozen house seats, governorships, etc ...

 

[geechiedan]

Even if a third party didn't win a presidential campaign they could still have a major impact. Imagine if they won half a dozen senate races or a couple dozen house seats, governorships, etc ...

we have a good number of independents etc in congress now..but a notable number of govenorships WOULD move the needle in terms of being taken seriously.

 

[blackpepper]

we have a good number of independents etc in congress now..but a notable number of govenorships WOULD move the needle in terms of being taken seriously.

Have to start somewhere.