What would it take and how would a 3rd party to have a realistic shot at developing into a viable 3rd choice? - mature discussion

geechiedan

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In the modern era what would take for a third party candidate to gain enough traction in mainstream America to have an actual chance at winning the Presidency?

I think that candidate would have to be moderate enough to peel off support from both Dems and GOP and those that left would be disaffected moderates in both parties.

That person would most definitely have to be charismatic AF. On the young side most likely (50s or younger) And most likely white male. MAYBE non white male but probably not African American specifically as thats still too controversial for lack of a more precise word.

The candidate that had the most realistic shot in our lifetime so far was Ross Perot but he was at his core a conservative and republicans still blame him for splitting the conservative enough for Clinton to get in.

I thought of this late in Trumps 2016 run.... that if he ran as an independant he would have probably had enough appeal to blow away the republican candidate and STILL give Clinton a good run from that position. Trump (with some tweaks here and there) would have probably been the person who had the best chance of legitimizing a 3rd party choice in the mainstream...again WITH SOME TWEAKS.

WHAT DO YOU THINK IT WOULD TAKE FOR A 3RD PARTY TO BE A LEGIT CHOICE AND NOT JUST A SPOILER VOTE FOR THE MAIN TWO???

again this a serious topic not some troll bait back and forth...I really want to examine and scenario how this would go??
 
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I been smoking but still.... If they loose this cycle I think the likely contraction of the GOP will offer an opportunity for a third party to gain serious traction. The old GOP could keep MAGA and a new party could form around the reagan type conservatives. If that new conservative party is willing to move away from its racist, bigoted, and sexist history it could have a chance.
 
I been smoking but still.... If they loose this cycle I think the likely contraction of the GOP will offer an opportunity for a third party to gain serious traction. The old GOP could keep MAGA and a new party could form around the reagan type conservatives. If that new conservative party is willing to move away from its racist, bigoted, and sexist history it could have a chance.

You have a point.....


I think drumpf losing could definitely spark and new major 3rd party. A more center conservative/liberal party.....

A lot of people on both sides like to consider themselves "fiscally conservative, but socially liberal" or vice versa......

They would need to attract those people that think both parties have gone to their respective extremes. Like a Jon Fetterman (sp?)

If there was a party that focused on what they could agree on, (better immigration policy, sensible gun laws thay dont "tread on" people, better healthcare for the middle class, tax breaks for the middle class, trans people not impeding on his women....etc

I think that if it were just a fractured conservative partt they could make noise (a la Tea Party), bUT they wouldn't have the numbers to really be a threat to the two party system.........

However, if they let religion, abortion....etc keep them divided, they again make noise but eventually fold into one of the 2 parties that shares those values.
 
How about trying something realistic, like a congressional seat or a state seat?

They act like losers and spoilers, this should be treated as such.

Come up with real policies for citizens WITH plans for execution.

The breakfast club recently had the Working Families and Power Party on, Naturi Naughton supports/represents them, and they got a judge elected. That's their goal to get enough people elected locally and potentially federally (judges and etc) that once they get the numbers they can try for a major election candidate.

But the bar is higher now than ever,

In 1992 Ross Perot, a legitimate billionaire, financed nearly all of his campaign and was still only able to get about 19% of the popular vote, winning 0 states......

A true contender today would need considerable donations and centric support. No other 3rd party candidate has performed remotely as well as Perot.
 
There are still a lot of issues that would have to be bridged, but who knows. Like I said if a new conservative party could purge its traditions of racism, bigotry, and sexism they could attract a lot more people.
 
I been smoking but still.... If they loose this cycle I think the likely contraction of the GOP will offer an opportunity for a third party to gain serious traction. The old GOP could keep MAGA and a new party could form around the reagan type conservatives. If that new conservative party is willing to move away from its racist, bigoted, and sexist history it could have a chance.
yeah but thats just a branch off the conservative wing...I dont see that attracting too many left wing people to make it threat to the big 2 equally.
 
How about trying something realistic, like a congressional seat or a state seat?

They act like losers and spoilers, this should be treated as such.

Come up with real policies for citizens WITH plans for execution.

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realistically no chance.but the only way it could happen under the current 2 party system is an independent with Dem leanings that has huge money and can put together a ground game to win California,NY,Illinois, after that it would be math can they get the other states to get to 270? without a strategy like that no way a 3rd party can be a threat. Someone like Mark Cuban as an independent would have a chanve if the Dems ran someone very unpopular and the GOP ran a worst version of Trump. Under that unique election Cuban could win the big 3 blue states AND win the big 2 red states of Texas and Fla.
 
realistically no chance.but the only way it could happen under the current 2 party system is an independent with Dem leanings that has huge money and can put together a ground game to win California,NY,Illinois, after that it would be math can they get the other states to get to 270? without a strategy like that no way a 3rd party can be a threat. Someone like Mark Cuban as an independent would have a chanve if the Dems ran someone very unpopular and the GOP ran a worst version of Trump. Under that unique election Cuban could win the big 3 blue states AND win the big 2 red states of Texas and Fla.
interesting scenario...
 
It would take some black magic, but if they could embrace environmental protections and healthcare cost containment that would get some leftys.
realistically no chance.but the only way it could happen under the current 2 party system is an independent with Dem leanings that has huge money and can put together a ground game to win California,NY,Illinois, after that it would be math can they get the other states to get to 270? without a strategy like that no way a 3rd party can be a threat. Someone like Mark Cuban as an independent would have a chanve if the Dems ran someone very unpopular and the GOP ran a worst version of Trump. Under that unique election Cuban could win the big 3 blue states AND win the big 2 red states of Texas and Fla.
that person would have to be the Tom Brady of candidates..threading so many needles and alot of luck and good breaks. But IF that person won it certainly work to solidify that 3rd party as a viable choice and not just some symbolic statement.
 
that person would have to be the Tom Brady of candidates..threading so many needles and alot of luck and good breaks. But IF that person won it certainly work to solidify that 3rd party as a viable choice and not just some symbolic statement.
absolutely but I could see Mark Cuban legtimately having a chance cause he is perceived as being both progressive and conservative but not in an asshole type way. As a legit billionaire and sports celebrity he could bridge some gaps. lets say its 2032 and Harris is a 2 term President leaving office sucessful and the Dems nominate Pete Bootyman and the GOP nominates Josh Hawley 2 very unpopular candidates Pete cause hes gay and Josh cause hes super asshole Cuban would have a chance
 
realistically no chance.but the only way it could happen under the current 2 party system is an independent with Dem leanings that has huge money and can put together a ground game to win California,NY,Illinois, after that it would be math can they get the other states to get to 270? without a strategy like that no way a 3rd party can be a threat. Someone like Mark Cuban as an independent would have a chanve if the Dems ran someone very unpopular and the GOP ran a worst version of Trump. Under that unique election Cuban could win the big 3 blue states AND win the big 2 red states of Texas and Fla.

you think Mark Cuban is winning super red ass Fl AND Tx?!!

maybe TX, but I don't see Fl happening.

Dem leanings is one thing, AND big money is another........

Maybe the Rock could win on a centralist platform. Have a notable face as vp or as a prominent person on the cabinet.......
 
absolutely but I could see Mark Cuban legtimately having a chance cause he is perceived as being both progressive and conservative but not in an asshole type way. As a legit billionaire and sports celebrity he could bridge some gaps. lets say its 2032 and Harris is a 2 term President leaving office sucessful and the Dems nominate Pete Bootyman and the GOP nominates Josh Hawley 2 very unpopular candidates Pete cause hes gay and Josh cause hes super asshole Cuban would have a chance
:giggle::giggle:
 
you think Mark Cuban is winning super red ass Fl AND Tx?!!

maybe TX, but I don't see Fl happening.

Dem leanings is one thing, AND big money is another........

Maybe the Rock could win on a centralist platform. Have a notable face as vp or as a prominent person on the cabinet.......
do you mean the rock as a VP pick for cuban or running as a candidate himself?? A VP pick for Cuban would be an interesting team up...but maybe a bit TOO hollywoodish?? between the chicanery of the big 2 and the media theyd be dirtied up FAST...but the great part of 2024 trump running is a convicted sex offending felon whose been impeached TWICE sets SO MANY precedences for the qualification of a presidential candidate that you cant complain that someone isnt fit for that office based on some unsavory past.
 
do you mean the rock as a VP pick for cuban or running as a candidate himself?? A VP pick for Cuban would be an interesting team up...but maybe a bit TOO hollywoodish??

That's the problem, both of them have big egos..... who would be willing to be VP "for the greater good of the nation?"

But yeah they might just have the formula to win, a true/legitimate billionaire businessman, with no known felony conviction, the rock's star power and equally mostly "clean" reputation......
 
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that person would have to be the Tom Brady of candidates..threading so many needles and alot of luck and good breaks. But IF that person won it certainly work to solidify that 3rd party as a viable choice and not just some symbolic statement.
Even if a third party didn't win a presidential campaign they could still have a major impact. Imagine if they won half a dozen senate races or a couple dozen house seats, governorships, etc ...
 
Even if a third party didn't win a presidential campaign they could still have a major impact. Imagine if they won half a dozen senate races or a couple dozen house seats, governorships, etc ...
we have a good number of independents etc in congress now..but a notable number of govenorships WOULD move the needle in terms of being taken seriously.
 
you think Mark Cuban is winning super red ass Fl AND Tx?!!

maybe TX, but I don't see Fl happening.

Dem leanings is one thing, AND big money is another........

Maybe the Rock could win on a centralist platform. Have a notable face as vp or as a prominent person on the cabinet.......
As I said in the 1st part of my statement no 3rd party can win as the system is presently constructed but if I created a way it could happen that Cuban scenario is the only way it could happen. Cuban is the proxy it could be the Rock or some other 50/50 type person that could run as independent but lean Democrat BUT be rich enough to get the support of the Republicans who would hate to vote for a worse version of Trump. That is the only way to get to 270 As an independent Win Cali,Ny and Ill as a leaning Dem and win Tex and Fla as a non Trumper. That’s the only way
 
As I said in the 1st part of my statement no 3rd party can win as the system is presently constructed but if I created a way it could happen that Cuban scenario is the only way it could happen. Cuban is the proxy it could be the Rock or some other 50/50 type person that could run as independent but lean Democrat BUT be rich enough to get the support of the Republicans who would hate to vote for a worse version of Trump. That is the only way to get to 270 As an independent Win Cali,Ny and Ill as a leaning Dem and win Tex and Fla as a non Trumper. That’s the only way
Depends on how today goes on how much credibility you're prediction has.
 
The problem is the classification of "parties" itself.
It is almost impossible to restructure peoples thinking processes.
If there were no parties and you only knew what candidates stood for and the issues they stood on, your vote would be more honest and there would be no social pressure to "pick a team". Instead, you would pick candidates who aligned with your own values and beliefs.
Good luck with that.
 
None of the above makes sense without
$1 Billion dollars just to get started.
 
This brother gets it.
Only way out if this duopoly



Supreme Court rejects Green Party bid to appear on 2024 Nevada ballot​


The Supreme Court on Friday left in place a ruling by the Nevada Supreme Court that keeps the Green Party off the state’s ballot for the 2024 general election. The Green Party had asked the justices to vacate the ruling while it appealed that decision, but in a brief unsigned order, the justices declined to do so.

Friday’s order means that Jill Stein, the Green Party’s candidate for president, will not appear on the ballot in Nevada in November. Polling earlier this month by CNN showed Stein receiving just 2% of the votes in Arizona and 1% or less in other states. But Stein’s absence from the ballot in Nevada was nonetheless hotly contested. President Joe Biden won Nevada by fewer than 35,000 votes in 2020, and polls show Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump running neck and neck in the state, which is likely to play a key role in this year’s race for the White House.

The Green Party was represented in the Supreme Court by (among others) Jay Sekulow, a Washington lawyer perhaps best known for representing Trump, including during his first impeachment in 2020.

Under Nevada law, the Green Party needed to obtain just over 10,000 valid signatures to get its candidates on the ballot for the 2024 general election. The petitions containing the signatures are also required to include an affidavit from the people who circulated the petitions.

As it came to the Supreme Court, the dispute centered on the content of that affidavit. For minor political parties seeking access to the ballot, Nevada law requires the affidavit to include an attestation that the person who circulated the petition believes that each person signing the petition is registered to vote in the county where she lives.

The affidavit originally submitted with the Green Party’s petition in July 2023 was the correct one. However, because the petition that the Green Party submitted contained a separate mistake, an employee in the secretary of state’s office sent the party a sample petition that included the wrong affidavit – for use with petitions to put initiatives and referenda on the ballot. As a result, the affidavits that the Green Party later submitted with its petitions did not contain the attestation required for access to the ballot.

The secretary of state eventually announced that the Green Party had submitted enough signatures to qualify for the 2024 general election ballot.

The Nevada Democratic Party went to state court in June of this year, arguing that the signatures were invalid because the Green Party had used the wrong affidavit.

On Aug. 12, the state trial court ruled in favor of the Green Party, but on Sept. 6 a divided Nevada Supreme Court reversed. It concluded that the attestation that the Green Party had failed to include “serves an essential purpose.” Therefore, the majority reasoned, allowing the Green Party to have its candidates on the ballot when it had not fulfilled all of the prerequisites to do so would nullify “the requirements that were put in place for the public’s benefit.”

This is true, the majority emphasized, even if the secretary of state’s office made a mistake when it sent the Green Party the sample petition and affidavit. Despite that error, the majority insisted, the Green Party “still had a duty to comply with the legal requirements” for affidavits.

The Nevada Green Party came to the U.S. Supreme Court on Sept. 13. Telling the justices that “[t]housands of Nevada voters who signed the petitions at issue are disenfranchised by the Nevada Supreme Court’s ruling,” it asked the justices to vacate the state supreme court’s order and reinstate the Green Party candidates.

The secretary of state, the Green Party stressed, has acknowledged both that it gave the Green Party the wrong form and directed the Green Party to use that form. Moreover, the Green Party added, the secretary of state went through the entire process of counting and verifying the signatures without ever flagging the possible problem. To bar the Green Party’s candidates from the ballot now, when the party simply followed the directions provided by the secretary of state’s office would violate the Constitution’s due process clause, which guarantees fair treatment by the government.

Excluding the Green Party from the ballot because it had failed to comply “with an ultimately meaningless formal requirement, where the state does not impose that same requirement under materially indistinguishable circumstances” – affidavits accompanying petitions to put initiatives and referenda on the ballot – would also violate the equal protection clause, the Green Party continued, which bars the government from treating people differently without a good reason.

The Green Party urged the justices to intervene now because resolving the dispute quickly “will serve the interest of all involved, mitigating wasted ballot printing and precious time as the election-related deadlines approach.” And it added that there “is still time to right the wrong,” noting that the Supreme Court has required ballots to be reprinted as late as Oct. 25.

Both Francisco Aguilar, the Nevada secretary of state, and the Nevada Democratic Party urged the justices to leave the state supreme court’s decision in place.

The Nevada Democratic Party pushed back against the Green Party’s suggestion that its failure to comply with the attestation requirement was “a mere technical violation.” Instead, the Nevada Democrats argued, the attestation “serves the State’s important interests in preventing fraud, assuring compliance with Nevada requirements regarding the number of signatures in each congressional district, and protecting the fairness and integrity of the political process.”

Nor should the Green Party’s failure to comply be excused because of the error by the secretary of state’s office, the Nevada Democrats continued. The attestation requirement is “clear” and “longstanding,” they contended, and a “civil servant’s mistake does not give rise to a due process right to be excused from” that obligation.

Aguilar and the Democrats also contended that procedural obstacles stand in the way of the Green Party’s request. First, Aguilar insisted, there are “strict deadlines” for printing and mailing ballots, so that it is effectively too late to add the Green Party’s candidates to the Nevada ballot now. Military and overseas ballots must be sent out by Sept. 20, while out-of-state absentee ballots must follow by Sept. 26.

Second, the Nevada Democratic Party asserted, the U.S. Supreme Court has no power to review a ruling by the district court declaring the Green Party’s petition invalid, because the Green Party did not appeal that ruling and the Supreme Court can only review decisions of the state’s highest court.

More broadly, Aguilar and the Nevada Democrats wrote, any effort to reinstate the Green Party candidates to the ballot could disrupt the election. Aguilar invoked the Purcell principle, the idea that courts should not change election rules during the period just before an election, and he noted that “at least one county clerk has already sent out military-overseas ballots and out-of-state mail ballots to ensure compliance with federal and state law.” Requiring county clerks to send out new ballots could create confusion and undermine public confidence in the integrity of the election, he posited, while ballots for registered voters in the state are already being printed.

The justices on Friday did not indicate whether they had taken the Purcell principle into account in this case, but it has played a major role in previous election decisions from this court, particularly on the emergency docket.

Aguilar and the Nevada Democrats also faulted the Green Party for what they characterized as its own role in delaying the process. Even though time was short, they observed, the Green Party delayed its initial response to the Democrats’ challenge, sought a delay in its hearing in the trial court, and waited a week after the Nevada Supreme Court’s ruling before coming to the justices.

This article was originally published at Howe on the Court.

Theyre playing the rules aggressively not because no one wants a legit 3rd party but because at this point 3rd parties can only be a spoiler for one of the big 2.

GOP did the same thing with ross perot back in the 90s.

the most annoying thing about jill stein is the annoying thing about people who CLAIM to want a 3rd party choice...they say BOTH SIDES but MOST if not ALL the complaints and criticisms are for one party...the dems

watch this interview..the host points out and asks SPECIFICALLY about criticisms and issues with what a 2nd trump term would brings and Steins response alwasys comes back to but democrats dot dot dot.



Are you trying to be a legit independent 3rd choice or is there an agenda against one party more than the other?? If so why is that??

Ive asked this on the board and people physically CAN NOT give criticism of trump or the republicans without it coming back to how democrats do blah blah blah and thats the majority of their rant on a question about trump or the GOP. Its a proven searchable fact.
 
It would take a lot of money for a huge country wide ad campaign. Most people don't even know who else is running.
 
I hate whoever started this BS rumor.
:smh:
a legit 3rd party SHOULD be more focused on how to get their party nationally recognized so they can implement their agenda on fixing the nation rather than commenting on what another party is doing or not doing...and if they are going to shit on another party then they need to shit on ALL the other competing parties as pretenders...not just one.

Its always better to try to get people to vote FOR you then against someone else. I would rather a voter said "I'm voting for X because X's platform is THIS, AND THIS AND THIS."

Rather than say "I'm voting for X because A and B are for shit...and B is this and B is that and B is the other thing (A is no better) BUT B IS FUCKED UP AND B IS THE OTHER THING!!! AND FUCK B AND FUCK B's MAMA!! :pain:

Ooookay... Sounds like youre upset with B more than anything else. But whats X's platform???
 
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