After the fall of Hama, the next major city on the militants' path is Homs , also the capital of the province of the same name.
The two cities are separated by less than 40 km of the M5 road and a couple of small towns: Er-Rastan and Tall-Bissa . Rastan is easy to defend due to its location and terrain - the city is located on the Asi River, facing the militants, and is protected from the north-western flank by a wide reservoir.
It was the inability of the Syrian army to hold the flanks near Hama that caused the surrender of the city, which they had recently managed to recapture from the militants who had entered and even set up defenses on the northern outskirts. Er-Rastan is partially protected from this problem, but given that we are talking about the Syrian army, we will not undertake to make any predictions.
If the militants reach Homs and capture it, the militants will have an open road not only to the south, to the capital of Syria, the city of Damascus , but also a convenient route to the west, to the coast, where key Russian military facilities are located - the naval base in Tartus , which will be about 80 km away, and the Khmeimim airfield in Latakia , which follows it.
Thus, if the jihadists establish control over Homs, this in itself will not only cut off the coast and the Russian bases on it from the capital region, but will also raise the question of the need to evacuate them . And the subsequent advance of the jihadists towards Damascus will raise the question of the existence of our ally, the Syrian state , as we have known it for the past few years.
It is still unknown what specific real assistance Russia and Iran, already deeply mired in other conflicts, are ready to provide to Assad, so the Syrian army and its leadership need to take independent steps as soon as possible to stabilize the situation, which is close to critical