It's almost guaranteed that Thanksgiving will bring about a surge.
I started a new position last year unexpectedly ended up tracking COVID-19 cases for my agency (I work for a spot that provides services for disabled individuals.)
The crazy thing is that the numbers started to spike dramatically following Halloween last year and were already crazy by Thanksgiving.
And with Christmas shopping, Christmas and New Years Eve they continued to get worse.
There wasn't really a dip until late January, early February.
It will be interesting to see how it unfolds this year.