Peace Fams. I have no hidden agenda here. I just like the sharing of knowledge and ideas...especially among people of color.
However, a storm will always be on the horizon whenever the sun shines for so long.
Economist Says This Chart Proves the U.S. Is ‘Either in a Recession, or It’s a First Since 1919′
Apr. 15, 2016 12:49pm
Jon Street
Top-ranked economist Jason Schenker says the U.S. economy is “either in a recession,” or what’s currently happening with the country’s Industrial Production Index hasn’t occurred in more nearly a century.
“Based on Industrial Production data, the U.S. is either in a #recession, or it’s a first since 1919!,” Schenker tweeted on Friday, along with a graphic from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, showing the index history going back to around that year.
Industrial production, which the
Wall Street Journal describes as a “broad gauge of output across U.S. factories, mines and power plants,” dropped by 0.6 percent in March. Output has fallen six of the past seven months.
Schenker points out that not since nearly a century ago has output outside of a declared “recession” decreased for seven consecutive months or more, meaning if there isn’t an uptick in output by next month, the world’s largest economy could be in for even more uncertain times.
Specifically, mining production has decreased in every one of the last seven months,
CNBC reported.
The Journal reported the industrial production decline was more drastic than what most economists expected, pointing to reports that have suggested the U.S. manufacturing industry was beginning to pick up steam.
Even so, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. economist Daniel Silver remains optimistic.
“We remain hopeful that the worst of the drags from these factors have passed and that activity will pick up shortly,” Silver said.
The news came days after the U.S.’ largest coal mining firm, Peabody Energy,
filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/201...her-in-a-recession-or-its-a-first-since-1919/
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New Fed Figures Show US Manufacturing is Back in Recession
Alan Tonelson | Friday, 15 April 2016 09:50 (EST)
The Federal Reserve's new industrial production data showed that two straight monthly real output decreases helped drag American manufacturing back into its second technical recession in less than a year. Cumulative inflation-adjusted production for the sector is now down since July. The new figures also showed that technical recessions continued in the durable goods super-sector and the automotive industry – which had previously led manufacturing's post-recession rebound. As a result, constant dollar output in manufacturing is still 4.39 percent below its level when the last recession began in late-2007 – more than eight years ago.
Here are the manufacturing highlights of the Federal Reserve's new release on February industrial production:
>A new monthly output dip in March and a downwardly revised February figure helped drag American domestic manufacturing back into its second technical recession in less than a year.
>The new monthly results plus a set of recent annual revisions released April 1 now reveal that inflation-adjusted manufacturing production is now below the level it hit last July – a ten-month stretch during which output has declined by 0.22 percent in constant dollar terms.
>The latest annual revisions also showed that domestic industry had shrunk on net by 0.26 percent between November, 2015 and December, 2015 – a 13-month period.
>According to the March data, technical recessions also lengthened for the durable goods super-sector (to ten months), and for the automotive sector that had previously led manufacturing's recovery from an historic recessionary dive (to eight months).
>Since last May, durable goods output is down by 0.10 percent after inflation. Since last July, automotive production (including both vehicles and parts) is down by 2.02 percent.
>In monthly terms, overall inflation-adjusted manufacturing output fell by 0.24 percent in March. February's 0.16 percent sequential output rise was downgraded to a 0.14 percent decline. The new figure for January's real production gain was pegged at 0.44 percent – down from 0.49 percent – but the previous figure was also affected by the annual revision exercise.
>March automotive production sank by 1.63 percent on month in real terms – its first sequential fall-off since November 1.65 percent decrease. February's 0.12 percent monthly production dip was revised up to a 0.76 percent increase.
>Durable goods' monthly production dropped by 0.37 percent in March, but February's 0.35 percent shrinkage was upgraded to 0.15 percent real growth.
>Durable goods output is now down 0.81 percent after inflation from its July peak, and only 0.37 percent higher than when the last recession began at the end of 2007 – more than eight years ago.
>On a year-on-year basis, durable goods production improved by 0.34 percent in March. Although this figure was less than half 0.69 annual increase for February, it easily bested the 0.05 percent decrease for January.
>From March, 2014 to March, 2015, real durables growth was a still meager 0.79 percent, but the previous year it was much stronger – 2.40 percent.
>Year-on-year, overall manufacturing grew by only 0.52 percent in March in constant dollars. That's a considerably slower growth rate than February's 0.93 percent and January's 0.65 percent.
>The newest March real annual increase also trailed the 1.28 percent from March, 2015-March, 2015, and the 0.68 percent gain between the previous Marches.
>Largely as a result, overall real manufacturing output is now 4.39 percent below the level it hit at the last recession's December, 2007 onset.
>Non-durable goods production fell sequentially for the second straight month, too – by 0.08 percent. February's previously reported, barely detectable 0.01 percent gain is now judged to have been a 0.49 percent drop.
>On a year-on-year basis, non-durables real output advanced by 0.73 percent – continuing a recent trend of outperforming the durable goods sector.
>Yet this increase lagged behind February's 1.22 percent improvement and January's 1.48 percent. Moreover, it was also considerably slower than the 1.87 percent real production increase registered between the previous Marches, although it was much better than March, 2013-2014's 1.23 percent inflation-adjusted production drop.
>Despite its recent out-performance, non-durable goods production is now 10.08 percent lower than at its pre-recession peak, in July, 2007.
DISCLOSURE:
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer
https://www.equities.com/news/new-fed-figures-show-us-manufacturing-is-back-in-recession
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Recession is coming
Dan Wyson, Common Sense Investing5:36 p.m. MDT April 16, 2016
When I was 12 years old, I had a very unique job. My Dad had a business that distributed movies to elementary schools. The movies were on 16 mm film which was prone to breaking so when they came back from the schools, my job was to scroll through them and repair any damage. It was a great job that put a lot of nice spending money in my pocket.
Recently, I stumbled across the logbook I used to keep track of my earnings from that job, which also contained a ledger on my spending. My logs showed that I promptly spent all that I made, not being too concerned because there would always be more. At least that is what I thought until one day my Dad informed me I would not have any work for a few months due to the summer break. I was devastated. I had so many plans for the money that I had come to assume would always be there.
Some say a recession is only a recession when it hits home. Therefore, this experience qualified as my first personal mini recession. My summer spending plans had to be trimmed back as I learned the sad lesson of not preparing for economic slowdowns, even at 12 years old.
In 2008, our nation went through a terrible recession. People lost their jobs, their homes and their lifestyles. It is easy to find blame for the sorrow of that recession; poor government policy, Lehman Brothers, irresponsible bank lending, and others but really when you think about it, the bulk of the tragedy was self-inflicted. Too many had borrowed too much and were living at the edge of their means. When a setback occurred, it was greatly exaggerated because, as a people, we were not prepared as we should have been. If we had spent less, kept mortgages at reasonable levels, and saved a little better, the recession of 2008 would have been far less painful.
Some are beginning to worry that another recession may be near. Recessions have always been a normal part of the economic cycle and some leading indicators are beginning to point to the next one, but I do not fear recessions. In many ways, they can be good medicine for an economy that may need a reminder. They force families, businesses and governments that have gotten financially careless to re-evaluate their spending and streamline their operations. Like an occasional illness, a recession reminds us to take better care of ourselves when times are good.
When the next recession comes, there will be those who are unprepared who will blame economic events for their sorrows. There will also be those who have managed their money in such a way that they are able to ride out the slowdown and come through it in fine shape. The next recession will even provide opportunities, as the last one did, for those who are financially prepared to take advantage of it. Do not fear a recession, just fear being unprepared for one.
Dan Wyson, CFP is author of the book “21 Financial Myths” and owner of Wyson Financial. 1173 S. 250 W No. 505 St. George, UT 84770 — 435-986-9525 —Securities and Advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network, member FINRA/SIPC, a registered investment adviser.
http://www.thespectrum.com/story/news/2016/04/16/recession-coming/83082256/
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Prepare for a Massive Recession
APRIL 14, 2016
It's been eight years since the 2008 recession. I believe we are in a massive recession right now but the media can’t call it that because by definition we aren’t there yet. A Recession is defined as a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. By the time the media calls it a recession it's already too late—it will be after the fact and you have already been affected.
Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, said financial markets are pricing at a 50 percent chance of recession. Again, this is about the overall economy when in reality millions of people in America are already experiencing a recession.
The oil and gas sector has been hammered hard which will cause tremendous damage to the banks. Already the oil and gas industry has laid off some 250,000 jobs worldwide. These high paying jobs effect everything. Growth in building permits and housing has pulled back, and manufacturing activity continues to contract. Home ownership is at the lowest levels in fifty years.
Still Investing in Real Estate Through Traditional Avenues?
Automotive indicators show a consumer that is weakening, with auto buyers having to extend terms of finance to 84 months for consumers to afford a car. Incentives provided by the manufacturer are at the highest levels ever in order to continue to sell cars. A super
daunting report by The WSJrecently suggested subprime automotive debt delinquencies (late payments) had spiked to almost double. 87 percent of the S&P 500 reporting, (total blended fourth-quarter earnings) have shown a decline of 3.6 percent, according to
FactSet. Assuming the trend holds up, it will mark the first time profits have fallen for three straight quarters since 2009. But the stock market is almost double what it had declined to in 2008.
I have personally underwritten 57 real estate deals and had to walk away from them because they are all priced for perfection. Meaning they were too expensive for me to purchase. Talk to the everyday American consumer and you will find out they are strapped. And remember two-thirds of the entire economic activity rests on the shoulders of the consumer.
Then there are wages according to the Census ACS survey, where median income in America in 2016 is 53k, down from 56k in 2005. Notice the graph below and you will see it is flat or slightly falling. No big deal right?
You would assume that this will improve over time but the reality is if you look back to 1965 you will see real wages (adjusted for inflation) are flat, suggesting the income in America will not improve.
Politicians talk about minimum wage constantly but the real problem they never confront is median wage. They don’t confront it because they can’t fix it. Americans must learn how to make more money and that requires either specific high paying skills or an entrepreneurial approach to wages.
Related:
5 Ways to Make Enough Side Money to Eventually Quit Your Job
So what do you do to prepare for the recessions? How can you survive and even prosper from a monster recession? Contractions are not something to be scared of but rather opportunities for those properly prepared for them. Here are 5 things to keep in mind:
1) Don’t wait for it to get here operate like it is here now. Out work everyone now as though the contraction is fully here.
2) Stop ALL spending except on those things that can increase income. Do NOT spend to consume; spend only to increase income.
3) Keep your firewood dry and add to it. Accumulate cash—wood for your fire—at all cost and spend nothing, preparing to invest when real assets get cheaper (they will). Prepare to steal when the market capitulates (throws up). Build your fire so big others stare in amazement.
4) Do whatever it takes to increase income. Take on other income opportunities to increase your monthly income and save it all.
5) Learn 'how' think rather than 'why' think and act like an entrepreneur. That means sales, marketing, negotiating, follow up, and branding.
The reason I created CardoneU was to provide individuals with entrepreneurial skills so they could
survive and prosper during all times. Check it out today so you’ll be ready for tomorrow.
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/273598
