Intel's plan to turn itself around by building up its third-party chip-manufacturing business for other semiconductor companies faces serious obstacles, BofA Global Research says.
On Sunday, analyst Vivek Arya reiterated an Underperform rating for Intel stock (ticker: INTC), with a target of $ 25 for the price.
A "structural challenge remains [with] INTC's insistence on a capex intensive integrated design/manufacturing model (IDM) that is forcing it to simultaneously compete against agile rivals," he wrote. "Meanwhile the competition with ARM- based PC/server rivals is just starting."
Intel declined to comment. In early trading Monday, the stock was down 1% to $26.15., while the S&P 500 was 0.6% higher.
The analyst noted Apple (AAPL) has been gaining share, reaching about 10% of the PC market using its own internally designed chips. Apple processors use Arm Ltd. chip-architecture technology, a competitor to the x86 chip architecture used by Intel and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
He also said Intel faces severe challenges in catching up to other players in the third-party chip-manufacturing business. He said that Intel Foundry Services has less than 1% of the global foundry market, compared with 57% for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.
An additional challenge, he said, is that other chip makers could be worried that Intel's own chips would receive preferential manufacturing treatment.
"IFS [Intel Foundry Services] is not only behind in technology (vs. TSMC/ Samsung), but also too sub-scale," the analyst wrote.
Last month, Intel announced a 66% dividend cut, reducing the quarterly payout to 12.5 cents per share from 36.5 cents, citing the need for more financial flexibility to execute its turnaround plans.
Intel stock has fallen by 45% over the past 12 months, compared with a 6% drop for the iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) exchange-traded fund, which tracks the performance of the ICE Semiconductor Index.
There are a few semi conductor analyst that I listen to who I think have a pretty good pulse on the state of the sector: Vivek Arya and Stacy Rasgon (don't follow Stacy on Twitter however).
$INTC - I don't want to count them out on their fabrication plans, but the challenge is becoming a problem. $TSM and Samsung are just such a force. They invested during the years when $INTC stopped innovating. The sector needs another bleeding edge, third-party fabricator for diversification.
*Edited again*. Wanted to keep it on topic...
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