You know what.... I was thinking... U.S and allies not giving them all of this stuff for free. I just don't know what they're (Ukraine)/how they're going to pay for all of these weapons.
BREAKING: INVASION HAS BEGUN..... Putin's "3-day war"... NOW... 1 YEAR 338 DAYS ...WAGNER HEAD SAYS GROUP STANDING DOWN AFTER CLAIMS OF DEAL
- Thread starter lightbright
- Start date
You know what.... I was thinking... U.S and allies not giving them all of this stuff for free. I just don't know what they're (Ukraine)/how they're going to pay for all of these weapons.
It will eventually be paid:
Britain to make its final payment on World War II loan from U.S. - Business - International Herald Tribune
Britain will transfer £43 million to the U.S. Treasury on Friday, the final payment on a debt used to finance the World War II defeat of Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany.
The U.S. extended $4.34 billion in credit in 1945, allowing Britain to stave off bankruptcy after devoting almost all its resources to the war for half a decade. Since 1950 Britain has made payments on the debt, the final payment of which is worth $84 million, at the end of every year except six.
It is actually interesting to see the Russian disinformation on this. For Russian and Ukrainian audiences, the money isn't that much and won't help:
Russia’s State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin took to his Telegram channel to highlight that the US and its partners do not plan to provide real assistance to Ukraine.
Ukraine will only get 15% of the $40 billion promised by the US, he said.
"Washington and Brussels do not really intend to help Ukraine, or solve its economic and social issues. They only need Ukraine to fight Russia till the last Ukrainian," Volodin said.
According to the recent aid to Ukraine legislation signed by President Joe Biden, 35% of the $40 billion is going to finance the US Armed Forces, he explained. Meanwhile, 45.2% of that amount is set to be spent on other countries, not Ukraine, while another 4.8% will be earmarked to support refugees, and restore the US diplomatic mission in Ukraine. "Ukraine will only receive 15% of the allotted sum," the speaker revealed.
But Ukrainians will have to pay off the whole sum, he said. The US is aware that Kiev will not be able to service the debt in the future. "That is why they are seizing Ukraine’s last reserves, including grain, which is what we are seeing right now".
Ukraine to get just 15% of $40-bln US aid, but must return entire sum, Duma speaker says
Washington and Brussels do not really intend to solve Ukraine's economic and social issues, Vyacheslav Volodin underscored
tass.com
Meanwhile, the "approach" for US audiences is a little different.
US aid to Ukraine looks ‘like money laundering scheme’ – congresswoman
American aid to Kiev goes to NGOs run by “friends and families” of US politicians, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene claims
US aid to Ukraine looks ‘like money laundering scheme’ – congresswoman
The US aid destined for Ukraine goes to NGOs run by “friends and families” of politicians, a US congresswoman claims
Look at twitter too and you will see that the russian trolls are playing other angles with GOP cacs and Hoteps serving as useful amplifying idiots.
man them Ukrainian fucks have to be broke as theee fuck
no fees from taxing Russia for Pipeline usage
No income from exporting, I’m sure the USA is paying their army and governing personnel
Russia is winning the economic war - and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops | Larry Elliott
It is now three months since the west launched its economic war against Russia, and it is not going according to plan. On the contrary, things are going very badly indeed.
Sanctions were imposed on Vladimir Putin not because they were considered the best option, but because they were better than the other two available courses of action: doing nothing or getting involved militarily.
The first set of economic measures were introduced immediately after the invasion, when it was assumed Ukraine would capitulate within days. That didn’t happen, with the result that sanctions – while still incomplete – have gradually been intensified.
There is, though, no immediate sign of Russia pulling out of Ukraine and that’s hardly surprising, because the sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia’s oil and gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its war effort. In the first four months of 2022, Putin could boast a current account surplus of $96bn (£76bn) – more than treble the figure for the same period of 2021.
When the EU announced its partial ban on Russian oil exports earlier this week, the cost of crude oil on the global markets rose, providing the Kremlin with another financial windfall. Russia is finding no difficulty finding alternative markets for its energy, with exports of oil and gas to China in April up more than 50% year on year.
That’s not to say the sanctions are pain-free for Russia. The International Monetary Fund estimates the economy will shrink by 8.5% this year as imports from the west collapse. Russia has stockpiles of goods essential to keep its economy going, but over time they will be used up.
But Europe is only gradually weaning itself off its dependency on Russian energy, and so an immediate financial crisis for Putin has been averted. The rouble – courtesy of capital controls and a healthy trade surplus – is strong. The Kremlin has time to find alternative sources of spare parts and components from countries willing to circumvent western sanctions.
When the global movers and shakers met in Davos last week, the public message was condemnation of Russian aggression and renewed commitment to stand solidly behind Ukraine. But privately, there was concern about the economic costs of a prolonged war.
These concerns are entirely justified. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has given an added boost to already strong price pressures. The UK’s annual inflation rate stands at 9% – its highest in 40 years – petrol prices have hit a record high and the energy price cap is expected to increase by £700-800 a year in October. Rishi Sunak’s latest support package to cope with the cost-of-living crisis was the third from the chancellor in four months – and there will be more to come later in the year.
As a result of the war, western economies face a period of slow or negative growth and rising inflation – a return to the stagflation of the 1970s. Central banks – including the Bank of England – feel they have to respond to near double-digit inflation by raising interest rates. Unemployment is set to rise. Other European countries face the same problems, if not more so, since most of them are more dependent on Russian gas than is the UK.
The problems facing the world’s poorer countries are of a different order of magnitude. For some of them the issue is not stagflation, but starvation, as a result of wheat supplies from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports being blocked.
As David Beasley, the executive director of the World Food Programme put it: “Right now, Ukraine’s grain silos are full. At the same time, 44 million people around the world are marching towards starvation.”
In every multilateral organisation – the IMF, the World Bank, the World Trade Organization and the United Nations – fears are growing of a humanitarian catastrophe. The position is simple: unless developing nations are energy exporters themselves, they face a triple whammy in which fuel and food crises trigger financial crises. Faced with the choice of feeding their populations or paying their international creditors, governments will opt for the former. Sri Lanka was the first country since the Russian invasion to default on its debts, but is unlikely to be the last. The world appears closer to a full-blown debt crisis than at any time since the 1990s.
Putin has rightly been condemned for “weaponising” food, but his willingness to do so should come as no surprise. From the start, the Russian president has been playing a long game, waiting for the international coalition against him to fragment. The Kremlin thinks Russia’s threshold for economic pain is higher than the west’s, and it is probably right about that.
If proof were needed that sanctions are not working, then President Joe Biden’s decision to supply Ukraine with advanced rocket systems provides it. The hope is that modern military technology from the US will achieve what energy bans and the seizure of Russian assets have so far failed to do: force Putin to withdraw his troops.
Complete defeat for Putin on the battlefield is one way the war could end, although as things stand that doesn’t appear all that likely. There are other possible outcomes. One is that the economic blockade eventually works, with ever-tougher sanctions forcing Russia to back down. Another is a negotiated settlement.
Putin is not going to surrender unconditionally, and the potential for severe collateral damage from the economic war is obvious: falling living standards in developed countries; famine, food riots and a debt crisis in the developing world.
The atrocities committed by Russian troops mean compromising with the Kremlin is currently hard to swallow, but economic reality suggests only one thing: sooner or later a deal will be struck.
It is now three months since the west launched its economic war against Russia, and it is not going according to plan. On the contrary, things are going very badly indeed.
Sanctions were imposed on Vladimir Putin not because they were considered the best option, but because they were better than the other two available courses of action: doing nothing or getting involved militarily.
The first set of economic measures were introduced immediately after the invasion, when it was assumed Ukraine would capitulate within days. That didn’t happen, with the result that sanctions – while still incomplete – have gradually been intensified.
There is, though, no immediate sign of Russia pulling out of Ukraine and that’s hardly surprising, because the sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia’s oil and gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its war effort. In the first four months of 2022, Putin could boast a current account surplus of $96bn (£76bn) – more than treble the figure for the same period of 2021.
When the EU announced its partial ban on Russian oil exports earlier this week, the cost of crude oil on the global markets rose, providing the Kremlin with another financial windfall. Russia is finding no difficulty finding alternative markets for its energy, with exports of oil and gas to China in April up more than 50% year on year.
That’s not to say the sanctions are pain-free for Russia. The International Monetary Fund estimates the economy will shrink by 8.5% this year as imports from the west collapse. Russia has stockpiles of goods essential to keep its economy going, but over time they will be used up.
But Europe is only gradually weaning itself off its dependency on Russian energy, and so an immediate financial crisis for Putin has been averted. The rouble – courtesy of capital controls and a healthy trade surplus – is strong. The Kremlin has time to find alternative sources of spare parts and components from countries willing to circumvent western sanctions.
When the global movers and shakers met in Davos last week, the public message was condemnation of Russian aggression and renewed commitment to stand solidly behind Ukraine. But privately, there was concern about the economic costs of a prolonged war.
These concerns are entirely justified. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has given an added boost to already strong price pressures. The UK’s annual inflation rate stands at 9% – its highest in 40 years – petrol prices have hit a record high and the energy price cap is expected to increase by £700-800 a year in October. Rishi Sunak’s latest support package to cope with the cost-of-living crisis was the third from the chancellor in four months – and there will be more to come later in the year.
As a result of the war, western economies face a period of slow or negative growth and rising inflation – a return to the stagflation of the 1970s. Central banks – including the Bank of England – feel they have to respond to near double-digit inflation by raising interest rates. Unemployment is set to rise. Other European countries face the same problems, if not more so, since most of them are more dependent on Russian gas than is the UK.
The problems facing the world’s poorer countries are of a different order of magnitude. For some of them the issue is not stagflation, but starvation, as a result of wheat supplies from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports being blocked.
As David Beasley, the executive director of the World Food Programme put it: “Right now, Ukraine’s grain silos are full. At the same time, 44 million people around the world are marching towards starvation.”
In every multilateral organisation – the IMF, the World Bank, the World Trade Organization and the United Nations – fears are growing of a humanitarian catastrophe. The position is simple: unless developing nations are energy exporters themselves, they face a triple whammy in which fuel and food crises trigger financial crises. Faced with the choice of feeding their populations or paying their international creditors, governments will opt for the former. Sri Lanka was the first country since the Russian invasion to default on its debts, but is unlikely to be the last. The world appears closer to a full-blown debt crisis than at any time since the 1990s.
Putin has rightly been condemned for “weaponising” food, but his willingness to do so should come as no surprise. From the start, the Russian president has been playing a long game, waiting for the international coalition against him to fragment. The Kremlin thinks Russia’s threshold for economic pain is higher than the west’s, and it is probably right about that.
If proof were needed that sanctions are not working, then President Joe Biden’s decision to supply Ukraine with advanced rocket systems provides it. The hope is that modern military technology from the US will achieve what energy bans and the seizure of Russian assets have so far failed to do: force Putin to withdraw his troops.
Complete defeat for Putin on the battlefield is one way the war could end, although as things stand that doesn’t appear all that likely. There are other possible outcomes. One is that the economic blockade eventually works, with ever-tougher sanctions forcing Russia to back down. Another is a negotiated settlement.
Putin is not going to surrender unconditionally, and the potential for severe collateral damage from the economic war is obvious: falling living standards in developed countries; famine, food riots and a debt crisis in the developing world.
The atrocities committed by Russian troops mean compromising with the Kremlin is currently hard to swallow, but economic reality suggests only one thing: sooner or later a deal will be struck.
- Larry Elliott is the Guardian’s economics editor
He is one of my UK work colleagues favorite punching bags.
Here he is making the argument for Brexit in 2016:
Brexit may be the best answer to a dying eurozone
Staying in the EU means hitching ourselves to an undemocratic project run by and for a remote elite
Brexit may be the best answer to a dying eurozone | Larry Elliott
Staying in the EU means hitching ourselves to an undemocratic project run by and for a remote elite
We all know how that has worked out.
Also, notice that a St Albans grad of all people is worried about the "elite" running things.
This is the follow up on the ruling from the derivatives panel I posted yesterday:
Russia’s ‘failure to pay’ bond interest triggers credit default swaps
International derivatives panel’s decision paves way for $2.5bn of payouts on insurance-like contracts
Russia’s failure to pay a slice of interest on one of its bonds will trigger $2.5bn of insurance-like contracts used to protect against debt defaults, according to a panel of derivatives dealers and investors. The ruling by the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee that a “failure to pay” event has occurred pushes Moscow one step closer to a historic debt default, as western sanctions following President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine choke off its ability to make payments to US and European investors. Moscow appeared to have dodged the long-expected default on its foreign currency debt when it belatedly repaid investors in early May, just before the end of a grace period on two payments originally due on April 4. But Russia did not include $1.9mn of interest accrued during the 30-day period, prompting some investors to ask the international committee to rule on whether a default had occurred. Wednesday’s decision means holders of Russian credit default swaps will receive a payout, with the size to be determined by an auction process of Russian bonds.
JPMorgan estimated last month that there were about $2.5bn of CDS to be settled, including deals tied directly to Russia and others based on a basket of issuers. US bond-investing giant Pimco was among the investors with exposure to Russian CDS, having amassed a derivatives wager that Moscow would not default worth at least $1bn at the end of 2021, according to a Financial Times analysis of the asset manager’s holdings. The small size of the accrued interest payment, along with the fact that Moscow repaid the principal of the bond due in April, means the decision will not trigger a wider default on Russia’s debt. However, most investors think an official default is only a matter of time after US authorities last week ended a sanctions exemption that allowed American investors to continue receiving Russian bond payments.
“It looks like we have a default, at least for the purposes of CDS,” said Marcelo Assalin, head of emerging markets debt at William Blair. “A broader default on Russia’s bonds is still an open question, but it seems likely that will be confirmed with upcoming interest payments.” Once a default is confirmed, holders of Russia’s $38bn of dollar and euro-denominated bonds could potentially vote to demand immediate repayment and start legal action to try to recover their investment. A default could be confirmed on June 26, when a grace period for two payments due last week expires. The Kremlin has revived an earlier plan to make payments on its foreign-currency debt in roubles after the change in US sanctions last week blocked it from paying investors in dollars.
https://www.ft.com/content/f270f38d-b0a4-4f97-9ffd-e55962955fad
Russia’s ‘failure to pay’ bond interest triggers credit default swaps
International derivatives panel’s decision paves way for $2.5bn of payouts on insurance-like contracts
Russia’s failure to pay a slice of interest on one of its bonds will trigger $2.5bn of insurance-like contracts used to protect against debt defaults, according to a panel of derivatives dealers and investors. The ruling by the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee that a “failure to pay” event has occurred pushes Moscow one step closer to a historic debt default, as western sanctions following President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine choke off its ability to make payments to US and European investors. Moscow appeared to have dodged the long-expected default on its foreign currency debt when it belatedly repaid investors in early May, just before the end of a grace period on two payments originally due on April 4. But Russia did not include $1.9mn of interest accrued during the 30-day period, prompting some investors to ask the international committee to rule on whether a default had occurred. Wednesday’s decision means holders of Russian credit default swaps will receive a payout, with the size to be determined by an auction process of Russian bonds.
JPMorgan estimated last month that there were about $2.5bn of CDS to be settled, including deals tied directly to Russia and others based on a basket of issuers. US bond-investing giant Pimco was among the investors with exposure to Russian CDS, having amassed a derivatives wager that Moscow would not default worth at least $1bn at the end of 2021, according to a Financial Times analysis of the asset manager’s holdings. The small size of the accrued interest payment, along with the fact that Moscow repaid the principal of the bond due in April, means the decision will not trigger a wider default on Russia’s debt. However, most investors think an official default is only a matter of time after US authorities last week ended a sanctions exemption that allowed American investors to continue receiving Russian bond payments.
“It looks like we have a default, at least for the purposes of CDS,” said Marcelo Assalin, head of emerging markets debt at William Blair. “A broader default on Russia’s bonds is still an open question, but it seems likely that will be confirmed with upcoming interest payments.” Once a default is confirmed, holders of Russia’s $38bn of dollar and euro-denominated bonds could potentially vote to demand immediate repayment and start legal action to try to recover their investment. A default could be confirmed on June 26, when a grace period for two payments due last week expires. The Kremlin has revived an earlier plan to make payments on its foreign-currency debt in roubles after the change in US sanctions last week blocked it from paying investors in dollars.
https://www.ft.com/content/f270f38d-b0a4-4f97-9ffd-e55962955fad
GCC members stand united on Russia-Ukraine crisis, Saudi foreign minister says
Prince Faisal bin Farhan speaks at 152nd session of the GCC Ministerial Council
Live updates: follow the latest news on Russia-Ukraine
Gulf Co-operation Council countries have highlighted the negative repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict during meetings with top diplomats from both countries, says Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister.
Prince Faisal bin Farhan's remarks came during his opening speech at the 152nd session of the GCC Ministerial Council.
“Our stance as Gulf countries regarding the Russian-Ukrainian crisis is unified,” he said on Wednesday.
“Today we had two fruitful meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian ministers, during which we stated our unified stance regarding the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and its negative consequences, namely the food security of the affected countries and the world."
He said "our regional security is facing major challenges that require close co-ordination to reach a common approach towrds our international relations in order to care for our interests".
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who attended the meeting, has confirmed members of the GCC will not join global sanctions against Moscow.
Mr Lavrov said GCC countries “understand the nature of the conflict between us and the West”.
During his meetings in Riyadh, Mr Lavrov also called for Syria to return to its seat in the Arab League.
He repeated Russia's support for the Arab initiative proposed by Saudi Arabiaregarding a Palestinian state and that Moscow also supported the Yemeni Presidential Council and the current truce.
Prince Faisal said GCC members were keen to support all efforts to reach a just political solution in Yemen.
The top Saudi diplomat said the security of the country is an integral part of the security system of the Gulf and Arab region, asserting full support for Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council until Yemen restores its security and stability.
“We reiterate our support for the UN’s efforts, led by its special envoy to Yemen, aiming to reach a comprehensive political solution to end the crisis in Yemen," he said.
He said atop challenges facing the region is the Iranian nuclear programme, its arming of the militias, support for terrorism and its destabilising acts in the region.
"So our dialogue with Iran should be based on a unified Gulf stance through which we call for peace, cooperation and commitment to the principles of the international legitimacy and good neighborliness," he said.
Mr Lavrov met the foreign ministers of the GCC on Wednesday in Riyadh.
He held a meeting with Kuwait's Foreign Minister Sheikh Ahmad Al Mohammed, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Twitter.
Mr Lavrov began his tour of the region in Bahrain on Monday, where he met King Hamad and Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al Zayani.
He arrived in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.
Before the GCC meeting, Mr Lavrov held talks with Prince Faisal.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said the diplomats praised the level of co-operation inside Opec+.
“They noted the stabilising effect that the tight co-operation between Russia and Saudi Arabia has on world markets for hydrocarbons in this strategically important sector,” the ministry said.
During their meeting in Riyadh, Prince Faisal affirmed Riyadh’s willingness to make the necessary efforts to contribute to a political solution to the Ukraine conflict.
He confirmed to Mr Lavrov that the kingdom's position was based “on the foundations of international law and its support for efforts aimed at reaching a political solution that ends the crisis and achieves security and stability”, the official Saudi Press Agency reported.
Saudi Arabia and other Opec member countries have so far resisted US pressure to boost crude output more sharply to cool prices, which have risen partly because of the Ukraine war.
The foreign ministers also issued a joint communique after their meeting on Wednesday, which noted Iran's destabilising behaviour in the region.
The council emphasised the need for negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file, which should also address its sponsorship of terrorism and sectarian militias, its missile programme and the safety of maritime navigation and oil installations.
It said GCC states needed to participate in those negotiations, as well as all regional and international discussions and meetings related to the matter.
Saudi Arabia said high oil prices were the result of geopolitics, stretched refining capacities and higher taxes in the West, rather than supply concerns.
US President Joe Biden and his team have been considering making stops in Saudi Arabia and Israel after he travels to Germany and Spain in late June, sources said.
Updated: June 02, 2022, 1:54 AM
Prince Faisal bin Farhan speaks at 152nd session of the GCC Ministerial Council
Live updates: follow the latest news on Russia-Ukraine
Gulf Co-operation Council countries have highlighted the negative repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict during meetings with top diplomats from both countries, says Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister.
Prince Faisal bin Farhan's remarks came during his opening speech at the 152nd session of the GCC Ministerial Council.
“Our stance as Gulf countries regarding the Russian-Ukrainian crisis is unified,” he said on Wednesday.
“Today we had two fruitful meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian ministers, during which we stated our unified stance regarding the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and its negative consequences, namely the food security of the affected countries and the world."
He said "our regional security is facing major challenges that require close co-ordination to reach a common approach towrds our international relations in order to care for our interests".
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who attended the meeting, has confirmed members of the GCC will not join global sanctions against Moscow.
Mr Lavrov said GCC countries “understand the nature of the conflict between us and the West”.
During his meetings in Riyadh, Mr Lavrov also called for Syria to return to its seat in the Arab League.
He repeated Russia's support for the Arab initiative proposed by Saudi Arabiaregarding a Palestinian state and that Moscow also supported the Yemeni Presidential Council and the current truce.
Prince Faisal said GCC members were keen to support all efforts to reach a just political solution in Yemen.
The top Saudi diplomat said the security of the country is an integral part of the security system of the Gulf and Arab region, asserting full support for Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council until Yemen restores its security and stability.
“We reiterate our support for the UN’s efforts, led by its special envoy to Yemen, aiming to reach a comprehensive political solution to end the crisis in Yemen," he said.
He said atop challenges facing the region is the Iranian nuclear programme, its arming of the militias, support for terrorism and its destabilising acts in the region.
"So our dialogue with Iran should be based on a unified Gulf stance through which we call for peace, cooperation and commitment to the principles of the international legitimacy and good neighborliness," he said.
Mr Lavrov met the foreign ministers of the GCC on Wednesday in Riyadh.
He held a meeting with Kuwait's Foreign Minister Sheikh Ahmad Al Mohammed, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Twitter.
Mr Lavrov began his tour of the region in Bahrain on Monday, where he met King Hamad and Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al Zayani.
He arrived in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.
Before the GCC meeting, Mr Lavrov held talks with Prince Faisal.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said the diplomats praised the level of co-operation inside Opec+.
“They noted the stabilising effect that the tight co-operation between Russia and Saudi Arabia has on world markets for hydrocarbons in this strategically important sector,” the ministry said.
During their meeting in Riyadh, Prince Faisal affirmed Riyadh’s willingness to make the necessary efforts to contribute to a political solution to the Ukraine conflict.
He confirmed to Mr Lavrov that the kingdom's position was based “on the foundations of international law and its support for efforts aimed at reaching a political solution that ends the crisis and achieves security and stability”, the official Saudi Press Agency reported.
Saudi Arabia and other Opec member countries have so far resisted US pressure to boost crude output more sharply to cool prices, which have risen partly because of the Ukraine war.
The foreign ministers also issued a joint communique after their meeting on Wednesday, which noted Iran's destabilising behaviour in the region.
The council emphasised the need for negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file, which should also address its sponsorship of terrorism and sectarian militias, its missile programme and the safety of maritime navigation and oil installations.
It said GCC states needed to participate in those negotiations, as well as all regional and international discussions and meetings related to the matter.
Saudi Arabia said high oil prices were the result of geopolitics, stretched refining capacities and higher taxes in the West, rather than supply concerns.
US President Joe Biden and his team have been considering making stops in Saudi Arabia and Israel after he travels to Germany and Spain in late June, sources said.
Updated: June 02, 2022, 1:54 AM
Nice succinct read that explains in part some of the crazy shit we have seen thus far:
Why Are the Russian Forces Fighting in Ukraine So Primitive?
The supreme-leader model of autocratic regimes tends to produce militaries whose primary function is to impress, not win wars
Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, we have watched the backwardness of the Russian forces with increasing amazement and disbelief. The fields of command, computerization and network-centric warfare are absolutely essential to modern warfighting, but Russia, despite developing some advanced systems, has demonstrated mastery of none of them.
During the Ukraine campaign, there has been little evidence of computerized data exchange or use of digital maps—not even military GPS/Glonass navigation—among Russian forces, with a few exceptions. The whole Russian command system seems based on traditional WWII-era voice communication, little of which is even encrypted, let alone jam-resistant. Most communications have been so open that anybody with a commercial scanner could listen in.
Even at higher echelons, analog radios are common. Command vehicles have map tables marked with colored grease pencils. Most communication is conducted by voice, occasionally by Morse key and most rarely by SMS-like text messages.
The result has been an absolute botch of what many calculated would be a “special military operation” with just five days of actual fighting. Losses in men and equipment have been high and morale has been low, with Russian soldiers often abandoning equipment when lost or out of fuel. Photos of Ukrainian tractors towing away expensive Russian armored vehicles and air-defense systems have become an early symbolic image of resistance and an enduring source of humor.
The widespread communications breakdown has required high-level Russian commanders to frequently visit the front and issue commands in person. As a result, 12 Russian generals have been reported killed to date, plus any number of command-grade officers of lesser rank.
More to the point, Russia has been forced to abandon its initial goal of seizing the government in Kyiv and reorganizing Ukraine to its liking. Instead, Russia has repositioned its forces to expand and secure its position in the Donbas region in the east and beyond Crimea in the south. It remains to be seen whether narrowing the conflict to more constrained fronts will be within Russia’s command-and-control capabilities.
Full article: https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p...sian-forces-fighting-in-ukraine-so-primitive/
Why Are the Russian Forces Fighting in Ukraine So Primitive?
The supreme-leader model of autocratic regimes tends to produce militaries whose primary function is to impress, not win wars
Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, we have watched the backwardness of the Russian forces with increasing amazement and disbelief. The fields of command, computerization and network-centric warfare are absolutely essential to modern warfighting, but Russia, despite developing some advanced systems, has demonstrated mastery of none of them.
During the Ukraine campaign, there has been little evidence of computerized data exchange or use of digital maps—not even military GPS/Glonass navigation—among Russian forces, with a few exceptions. The whole Russian command system seems based on traditional WWII-era voice communication, little of which is even encrypted, let alone jam-resistant. Most communications have been so open that anybody with a commercial scanner could listen in.
Even at higher echelons, analog radios are common. Command vehicles have map tables marked with colored grease pencils. Most communication is conducted by voice, occasionally by Morse key and most rarely by SMS-like text messages.
The result has been an absolute botch of what many calculated would be a “special military operation” with just five days of actual fighting. Losses in men and equipment have been high and morale has been low, with Russian soldiers often abandoning equipment when lost or out of fuel. Photos of Ukrainian tractors towing away expensive Russian armored vehicles and air-defense systems have become an early symbolic image of resistance and an enduring source of humor.
The widespread communications breakdown has required high-level Russian commanders to frequently visit the front and issue commands in person. As a result, 12 Russian generals have been reported killed to date, plus any number of command-grade officers of lesser rank.
More to the point, Russia has been forced to abandon its initial goal of seizing the government in Kyiv and reorganizing Ukraine to its liking. Instead, Russia has repositioned its forces to expand and secure its position in the Donbas region in the east and beyond Crimea in the south. It remains to be seen whether narrowing the conflict to more constrained fronts will be within Russia’s command-and-control capabilities.
Full article: https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p...sian-forces-fighting-in-ukraine-so-primitive/
bro you can’t speak like that on here.
that don’t make sense To many of us
you Need to delete that post asap
most of us here have the thoughts of beloved Teddy Cruz
Wouldn't it make sense to blame the country that intentionally created and is currently exploiting the crisis ? Also note, Russia has made around $1.9B as a result of weaponizing the food exports. This works out to be enough to fund around 6 days of conflict as they are spending $15.5MM per hour in Ukraine.
This is one of the main reasons that experts say that the attempts by the Russians to tread water economically are not sustainable...
Putin Has Spent Billions on Ukraine War—And His Military Is Struggling
According to one estimate, Russia is spending about 21 billion rubles—or more than $330 million—a day on the war in Ukraine.
www.newsweek.com
Russia Is Winning From the Global Food Crisis It Helped Create
While Ukraine’s ports are blocked, Russia is shipping grains to willing buyers at higher prices.
“This is using food as a weapon of war through global leverage,” said Tim Benton, Research Director for Emerging Risks at Chatham House, alluding to Russian comments that it would only unblock the Ukranian port of Odesa if sanctions are relaxed. “From a political perspective we are in a kind of new place because of the importance of grain markets.''
By blocking Ukraine’s ports, Russia has forced that country to try and ship grain by land, resulting in exports of only about a quarter of its usual potential volumes.
“Russian artillery is bombarding grain warehouses across Ukraine –- deliberately -- and Russian warships in the Black Sea are blockading Ukrainian ships full of wheat and sunflower seeds,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in Davos on Tuesday, denouncing what she characterized as “Russia’s blackmail.”
crazy thing is Russia been shooting more missiles now compared to then
That is Belarusian media. I guarantee those tweets don't exist as they also *try* to use the russian "faucet of bullshit" disinformation method. Notice this is the same twitter account featuring an interview of the same person they previously tried to discredit.
3 weeks prior to this interview when it looked bad for Ukraine he was an idiot, now, he is a featured expert they want to use to highlight Russian incompetence :Bellingcat first broke who was actually behind MH17 and has had their boot on the necks of a lot of powerful people both within Russia and outside so the need to try and discredit them is pretty obvious. Also recall that they were the ones that broke the news of the faked russian IED attacks that were to serve as the casus belli for "special operation" in Ukraine:
‘Exploiting Cadavers ’and ‘Faked IEDs’: Experts Debunk Staged Pre-War ‘Provocation’ in the Donbas - bellingcat
Russian media reported that a civilian car in the Donbas was destroyed by a Ukrainian IED in the days before the war. But damage to the vehicle doesn’t add up, and charred bodies show suspicious signs of an autopsy.
www.bellingcat.com
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On the game theory aspect of things, I say it again this was stupid. You don't use all your best cards at the beginning of the game, wtf are you going to negotiate afterwards if all your strategy is on full display. At the end it was mostly driven by emotion and virtue signaling and absolutely no long term thinkingWouldn't it make sense to blame the country that intentionally created and is currently exploiting the crisis ? Also note, Russia has made around $1.9B as a result of weaponizing the food exports. This works out to be enough to fund around 6 days of conflict as they are spending $15.5MM per hour in Ukraine.
Putin Has Spent Billions on Ukraine War—And His Military Is Struggling
According to one estimate, Russia is spending about 21 billion rubles—or more than $330 million—a day on the war in Ukraine.
Russia Is Winning From the Global Food Crisis It Helped Create
While Ukraine’s ports are blocked, Russia is shipping grains to willing buyers at higher prices.
“This is using food as a weapon of war through global leverage,” said Tim Benton, Research Director for Emerging Risks at Chatham House, alluding to Russian comments that it would only unblock the Ukranian port of Odesa if sanctions are relaxed. “From a political perspective we are in a kind of new place because of the importance of grain markets.''
By blocking Ukraine’s ports, Russia has forced that country to try and ship grain by land, resulting in exports of only about a quarter of its usual potential volumes.
“Russian artillery is bombarding grain warehouses across Ukraine –- deliberately -- and Russian warships in the Black Sea are blockading Ukrainian ships full of wheat and sunflower seeds,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in Davos on Tuesday, denouncing what she characterized as “Russia’s blackmail.”
Stupid people
they even admit how stupid they areYelle inflation
In an interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Tuesday, she admitted she had misjudged the threat inflation posed.
"There have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that have boosted energy and food prices," Yellen told Blitzer. "And supply bottlenecks that affected our economy badly that I didn't, at the time, fully understand."
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Saudi Prince ain’t picking the phone up…
So Biden thinking about going in person
probably because he heard this
we gonna see if they still have that same tone after meeting with Joe
THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES is planning on going to Saudi Arabia. It's usually the other way around LOL. Goes to show you how much power oil holds.
Now i'm very confused. Why can't they just make up some shit like they did in Iraq so they can go there and steal their oil? Saying they're a terrorist nation (which they are) and they need to be stopped.
Diplomacy doesn't work that way? LOL
On the game theory aspect of things, I say it again this was stupid. You don't use all your best cards at the beginning of the game, wtf are you going to negotiate afterwards if all your strategy is on full display. At the end it was mostly driven by emotion and virtue signaling and absolutely no long term thinking
Stupid people
Yelle inflation
In an interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Tuesday, she admitted she had misjudged the threat inflation posed.
"There have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that have boosted energy and food prices," Yellen told Blitzer. "And supply bottlenecks that affected our economy badly that I didn't, at the time, fully understand."
bro I was gonna make a thread about this mudda fucker, she’s the fucking numbers lady for us…. How they fuck you didn’t see this coming, wtf
On the game theory aspect of things, I say it again this was stupid. You don't use all your best cards at the beginning of the game, wtf are you going to negotiate afterwards if all your strategy is on full display. At the end it was mostly driven by emotion and virtue signaling and absolutely no long term thinking
Stupid people
Yelle inflation
In an interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Tuesday, she admitted she had misjudged the threat inflation posed.
"There have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that have boosted energy and food prices," Yellen told Blitzer. "And supply bottlenecks that affected our economy badly that I didn't, at the time, fully understand."
Most of the biggest "sticks" have yet to be applied while the others are escalatory in nature so I'm not really sure what you are hinting at other than that there should have been no response to the invasion. Look at the dates and scope of the sanctions imposed:
Below is a select list of sanctions issued against the Russian government, Russian companies and Russian individuals since the invasion of Ukraine began, with dates and the issuing government. This timeline will be updated as new sanctions are announced.
Gold Market Outlook
The gold sector appears well placed as inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions support the gold price in the short term; however, pending interest-rate hikes may put downward pressure on prices through to 2026.
www.spglobal.com
Also, not really sure how you can say this is driven by "virtue signaling" while simultaneously maintaining that the West has been too tough on Russia. Seems like a very contradictory position...
And now dearly beloved.... as we celebrate 100 days of gossip.......... and imaginary deaths...OP is spreading more gossip than TMZ.
USA, Inc. NEEDS a war because it is destitute and has to find someone to pillage but there are only a few places left, none of which are viable options so this BS is tossed out.
Saudis have zero incentive to help Biden on oil despite him trying for a while now:
Saudi Arabia Rejects Biden Plea to Increase Oil Production as Midterms Loom
“High gas prices will almost certainly be blamed on the party in power, so it really seems like the Saudis are using the oil weapon against Democrats here.”
theintercept.com
Things were very good for them under Trump/GOP (Trump visited them first, ran cover for them over the Khashoggi murder, no questions over Yemen or human rights etc.) so they will do the opposite of what they did in 2018 for Trump ahead of the midterm. Remember, the sword dance?
Is Saudi Arabia Helping Trump in the Midterms?
An overlooked factor in the president’s calculations over Jamal Khashoggi: the price of oil.
A few weeks ago, there were rumors that Trump was pondering an election-timed release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Now, with the Saudis on board, U.S. gasoline prices—the third rail of domestic politics—should remain low at election time.
If Trump’s measured responses are incentivizing Saudi production increases, the president’s policies are working. The international oil price is down about $9, from $85 just after Khashoggi’s murder to $76 on Tuesday.
Prior to the Khashoggi murder, Saudi Arabia had been slow-walking promised production increases despite strong evidence that Trump’s sanctions on Iran were strangling oil markets. Saudi oil output rose by just 300,000 barrels per day between June and October, while Iran’s oil exports fell by about triple that amount, around 1 million barrels per day.
Had the Saudis continued to drag their feet, prices might have neared the iconic $100 mark just in time for the U.S. election—handing Democrats a convenient talking point. Trump’s unilateral removal from world markets of 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian oil would have looked masochistic, given that his sanctions deadline is just two days ahead of the Nov. 6 elections.
But global outrage over the Saudi critic’s murder has put the kingdom on the back foot. Allies and detractors alike, including normally friendly Republicans in the U.S. Senate, are baying for sanctions and an arms embargo.
While Saudi political leaders produced fumbling explanations for the murder, the oil minister stepped forward to change the narrative. Al-Falih promised another 300,000 barrel-per-day increase “soon” and said the kingdom still had another 1 million barrels of spare capacity it could call upon. If that weren’t enough, Saudi Arabia would consider investing in further capacity increases, he said. “We will meet any demand that materializes,” Al-Falih said Tuesday.
Is Saudi Arabia Helping Trump in the Midterms?
An overlooked factor in the president’s calculations over Jamal Khashoggi: the price of oil.
www.politico.com
You can also look at the money they are giving out to people like Kushner and Mnuchin and surmise that midterm oil assistance is probably not coming for Biden like it did Trump.
Two former top officials in the Trump White House have secured billions of dollars from the Saudi government, in the form of investments in their new private equity funds, the New York Times reports.
Driving the news: Jared Kushner's firm, Affinity Equity, scored a $2 billion commitment from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, while former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's Liberty Strategic Capital secured $1 billion.
Why it matters: These are massive investments to bestow upon first-time private equity funds. It could also cause complications if Trump, who is Kushner's father-in-law, were to again become president.
Trump alums Kushner and Mnuchin cash in on Saudi ties
These are massive investments to bestow upon first-time private equity funds.
www.axios.com
They're polishing up an even bigger glowing orb for when the orange orb gets reelectedSaudis have zero incentive to help Biden on oil despite him trying for a while now:
Saudi Arabia Rejects Biden Plea to Increase Oil Production as Midterms Loom
“High gas prices will almost certainly be blamed on the party in power, so it really seems like the Saudis are using the oil weapon against Democrats here.”
Things were very good for them under Trump/GOP (Trump visited them first, ran cover for them over the Khashoggi murder, no questions over Yemen or human rights etc.) so they will do the opposite of what they did in 2018 for Trump ahead of the midterm. Remember, the sword dance?
Is Saudi Arabia Helping Trump in the Midterms?
An overlooked factor in the president’s calculations over Jamal Khashoggi: the price of oil.
A few weeks ago, there were rumors that Trump was pondering an election-timed release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Now, with the Saudis on board, U.S. gasoline prices—the third rail of domestic politics—should remain low at election time.
If Trump’s measured responses are incentivizing Saudi production increases, the president’s policies are working. The international oil price is down about $9, from $85 just after Khashoggi’s murder to $76 on Tuesday.
Prior to the Khashoggi murder, Saudi Arabia had been slow-walking promised production increases despite strong evidence that Trump’s sanctions on Iran were strangling oil markets. Saudi oil output rose by just 300,000 barrels per day between June and October, while Iran’s oil exports fell by about triple that amount, around 1 million barrels per day.
Had the Saudis continued to drag their feet, prices might have neared the iconic $100 mark just in time for the U.S. election—handing Democrats a convenient talking point. Trump’s unilateral removal from world markets of 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian oil would have looked masochistic, given that his sanctions deadline is just two days ahead of the Nov. 6 elections.
But global outrage over the Saudi critic’s murder has put the kingdom on the back foot. Allies and detractors alike, including normally friendly Republicans in the U.S. Senate, are baying for sanctions and an arms embargo.
While Saudi political leaders produced fumbling explanations for the murder, the oil minister stepped forward to change the narrative. Al-Falih promised another 300,000 barrel-per-day increase “soon” and said the kingdom still had another 1 million barrels of spare capacity it could call upon. If that weren’t enough, Saudi Arabia would consider investing in further capacity increases, he said. “We will meet any demand that materializes,” Al-Falih said Tuesday.
Is Saudi Arabia Helping Trump in the Midterms?
An overlooked factor in the president’s calculations over Jamal Khashoggi: the price of oil.
You can also look at the money they are giving out to people like Kushner and Mnuchin and surmise that midterm oil assistance is probably not coming for Biden like it did Trump.
Two former top officials in the Trump White House have secured billions of dollars from the Saudi government, in the form of investments in their new private equity funds, the New York Times reports.
Driving the news: Jared Kushner's firm, Affinity Equity, scored a $2 billion commitment from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, while former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's Liberty Strategic Capital secured $1 billion.
Why it matters: These are massive investments to bestow upon first-time private equity funds. It could also cause complications if Trump, who is Kushner's father-in-law, were to again become president.
Trump alums Kushner and Mnuchin cash in on Saudi ties
These are massive investments to bestow upon first-time private equity funds.
.
I don’t think trump will get re-elected but I know plenty hardcore Democrats been like “WTF”
I read something about Biden linking free lunch funds to the alphabet agenda for schools k-12.
I only saw it on a few unknown sites so I didn’t post it but I’m searching for more info.
