We’re seeing another round of media items about whether the US and some European states want to push Zelensky to make concessions, above all on Crimea. A
Anxiety among some Western policymakers about Ukraine doing too well and retaking Crimea seems, in my experience, to be focused on 2 things: fear that Russia will use nuclear weapons and fear of Russian collapse (which I may do a thread on tomorrow if I have time).
Both are reasonable and necessary fears - l'd doubt the competence of any politician or advisor who wasn't worried about them. But that doesn’t mean that either are the most likely consequences of supporting Ukraine re. Crimea.
There’s been anxiety about Russian nuclear use since the start of the war, as Putin/TV pundits respond to every additional Russian failure by ramping up threats. The most high-profile threats relate to strategic nuclear weapons; policymaker anxiety is often about tactical ones.
We need to be very careful in how we approach this issue, obviously, because the stakes are so high and the risk of getting it wrong so terrible. We also need to be mindful of the fact that we can see nothing of what’s happening behind the scenes.
But what we can say is that so far, despite the threats and despite the crossing some of what we thought might be Russia’s red lines, Putin has not used nuclear weapons.
Is Crimea different from other occupied territory liberated by Ukraine? Yes, for all sorts of reasons: it’s always been seen as strategically vital by Russia; it’s been integrated into Russia since 2014; and its annexation has been closely tied to Putin’s presidency and his image
But is Crimea important enough to risk the response of NATO or to risk alienating China – the partner on which Russia is now so dependent? What would be left of the Russian armed forces and the Russian economy if both their enemies and their key partner react strongly?
And retaking Crimea wouldn’t happen in a diplomatic vacuum. It’s not hard to imagine the US and EU holding out carrots as well as sticks that could help the Russian govt to accept the loss of Crimea.
There are 2 very important reasons why it’s strongly in the national interest of the US as well as all other NATO states not to give in to nuclear blackmail and push Ukraine into backing down on Crimea.
One reason is that the radically changed European security environment and the catastrophic state of relations with Russia mean a continuing Russian occupation of Crimea would be an ongoing and serious threat to NATO in the Black Sea.
As I’ve said before, a major, under-recognised permissive cause of Russia’s invasion was the 1997 treaty allowing Russia to take most of the Black Sea Fleet and to keep it in Crimea. That made the 2014 annexation desirable and possible, and it also made the 2022 invasion possible
Russia has de facto control over something like a third of Georgia’s coastline (in Abkhazia). With that and Crimea it has been able to project its presence in the Black Sea far more than it could have done if it had stayed inside its borders.
Russia now has a hostile and seemingly paranoid leadership that appears to have staked everything on selling the idea of an existential conflict with the West.
A hostile Russian naval presence in Crimea is a risk for NATO Black Sea states. That means as long as Russia is in Crimea, Crimea is now going to be a major problem for the security of NATO as a whole.
The 2nd reason is that, as many others have pointed out, when a leadership that sees everything in zero sum, I win-you lose terms uses nuclear blackmail, giving in to them makes it very likely they’ll do the same again and again.
Deterrence only provides security if it’s mutual, not if it only works one way.
Should we take Putin’s nuclear threats re. Crimea seriously? Yes. Should we take equally seriously the threat (including the risk of nuclear use) posed by giving him strong incentives to push NATO’s boundaries? Yes, I think so.
The problem here is that there's no safe policy option for the US or the rest of NATO.
Policymakers want options that solve problems, that mean they can ignore things they don’t want to worry about (particularly before elections), that allow them to return to business as usual.
But – partly as a result of those impulses being acted on in the past – the security situation is now so bad that there is no safe option to hit the snooze button and worry about it all some other time. There is no option, I think, without nuclear risk.
I’ve been observing and writing about Russian foreign and security policy towards its neighbours and the US for many years now. Nothing in that experience makes me think pushing Ukraine to abandon Crimea would be a safe option for the US, or France, or Germany.
Decisionmakers have a responsibility to understand that, and to help their countries’ citizens to understand it, or we will all be living in a significantly more dangerous world than we are now.