Why do Russia, the U.S. and Europe care so much about Ukraine?
Both Russia and the West see Ukraine as a potential buffer against each other.
Russia considers Ukraine within its natural sphere of influence. Most of it was for centuries part of the Russian Empire, many Ukrainians are native Russian speakers and the country was part of the Soviet Union until winning independence in 1991.
Russia was unnerved when an uprising in 2014 replaced Ukraine’s Russia-friendly president with an unequivocally Western-facing government.
Most former Soviet republics and allies in Europe had already joined the European Union or NATO. Ukraine’s lurch away from Russian influence felt like the final death knell for Russian power in Eastern Europe.
To Europe and the United States, Ukraine matters in part because they see it as a bellwether for their own influence, and for Russian intentions in the rest of Europe.
Ukraine is not part of the European Union or NATO. But it receives considerable financial and military support from Europe and the United States. Russia’s invasion suggests that Moscow might feel empowered to turn up the pressure on other former Soviet republics that are now members of the Western alliance, like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
The war could also further threaten American dominance over world affairs. By winning the Cold War, the United States established great influence over the international order, but that influence has waned in the past decade, and the Russian invasion might accelerate that process.
