The demographic shift was mostly right leaning people moving to Florida.
"According to Florida’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research, more than 300,000 people moved to Florida between April 2020 and April 2021. Move.org found more people moved to Florida than any other state in 2020, followed by Texas, California, and Colorado. And in 2022, Florida became the fastest-growing state for the first time since 1957, according to the Census Bureau.
Meanwhile, data suggests a good portion of these arrivals helped contribute to the state’s rightward tilt.
Data vendor L2 found that 46 percent of the almost 400,000 voters who moved to Florida during the pandemic registered with the GOP. Only about 23 percent registered as Democrats."
For the month of July republicans were way ahead in voter registrations even after Biden dropped out.
Now, as of yesterday the republicans are leading in the early vote.
This all on top of the fact that republicans are making it difficult to get minorities registered to vote. Plus alot of would be democrat voters are going to discover that they have been purged from the roles and didn't know to check.