**Official NBA Offseason... Big Names switch teams, Kawhi/P13 to LAC...wtf Westbrook and CP3 traded
- Thread starter Mask
- Start date
Did Green fuck up, or get paid what he's worth to this team?
What's a better situation for Draymond than the one he's in? He can't be the #1 option anywhere -- "He would’ve been eligible for $204 million over five years if he hit free agency next summer, or $151 million over four years with any other team." As Ben Dowsett said, it only takes one other team but I can't imagine who would have paid him $37.75M per year over four years. It's too complicated and far off to assess the market with certainty but I don't know that he left much on the table, if anything. The Warriors needed to keep him and he won't fit better or be more appreciated anywhere else, so it seems an all-around good deal to me.
I agree
Let's say a team like The Suns got Dray. No Suns fan would think their championship chances improved.
The man is underrated in my opinion but his disposition would be a little tough to deal with anywhere else.
Wow, I didn't know this: Green's 13.3 PPG in the playoffs were his most since 2016, and his 8.5 assists per game were a career high. He recorded six triple-doubles, a total exceeded during a playoff run only by Wilt Chamberlain in Basketball-Reference.com's database and matched only by Magic Johnson.
I'm not digging into his formula but that and "second-biggest active playoff overachiever behind LeBron James" are good arguments for paying Draymond.
538's model suggests his contract is fair for what he does in the regular season and, to this point in his career, that's just the tip of the iceberg in terms of what he brings to the table.
What Draymond Green's new deal means for the Warriors
Kevin Pelton
ESPN Staff Writer
Is Draymond Green's four-year, $100 million extension -- as reported by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski -- a good value for him and the Golden State Warriors?
Green was heading into the final season of a five-year deal he signed in the summer of 2015, the last one before the NBA's new TV contracts caused the salary cap to spike. As a result, the $18.5 million Green will make in 2019-20 had been the high-water mark in a career that has resulted in three All-Star appearances, a Defensive Player of the Year award and three championships for the Warriors.
A year ahead of potentially being one of the top free agents on the market next summer, Green locked in the security of a new four-year deal that will pay him more than ever before. How will that affect Golden State's planning for the future? Let's take a look.
Projecting Green's value
Last November, I looked at how Green's value might hold up over the life of a possible new five-year contract after his current one ends. Then, throughout the season, Green's performance offered arguments both hopeful and pessimistic about how he will age in his 30s.
Green's 2018-19 regular season was his worst since he emerged as a key player during the Warriors' first championship campaign in 2014-15. That was especially true in terms of per-game stats, where Green's marks fell across the board from the previous three years. He particularly dropped off as a scorer, averaging just 7.4 points per game, down from 11.0 the year before and 14.0 as recently as 2015-16 -- not coincidentally, the season before the Warriors signed Kevin Durant.
From the perspective of advanced stats, Green's decline wasn't quite so precipitous, but his plus-2.0 rating in Basketball-Reference.com's box plus-minus metric was his lowest since his rookie season, down from plus-3.2 in 2017-18 and 5-plus each of the three years before that.
Green's focus, however, has long been on the playoffs rather than the grind of the regular season. And come the postseason, after getting in better shape, he emerged as perhaps the second-most-important Golden State player after Stephen Curry during the Warriors' run to the NBA Finals. Green's 13.3 PPG in the playoffs were his most since 2016, and his 8.5 assists per game were a career high. He recorded six triple-doubles, a total exceeded during a playoff run only by Wilt Chamberlain in Basketball-Reference.com's database and matched only by Magic Johnson.
That outcome was nothing new for Green, who ranked as my second-biggest active playoff overachiever behind LeBron James entering last year's NBA Finals. While it's possible that could change if Golden State no longer consistently plays into June, putting more importance on the 82-game schedule, focusing largely on the postseason is a possible way for Green to retain his value while he ages.
The new version of FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO projections accounts for the distinction between regular season and playoff value and shows a wide gulf for Green. Over the life of his extension, he's forecasted to provide just 10.1 wins above replacement (WAR) during the regular season. Come the postseason, his projection comes to the equivalent of 17.2 WAR.
Accounting for Green's playoff value is important. By CARMELO's model, Green would be fairly paid from 2020-21 through 2023-24 based on regular-season play. CARMELO values his regular-season production at approximately $98 million. His playoff production, however, is valued at over $160 million. CARMELO is much more aggressively pricing the cost of the win than my equivalent model, based on the cost of buying a win in free agency. But Green's level of play during the playoffs should still come out worth near or above $100 million over the life of his extension.
Did Green maximize his contract?
It's important here to keep in mind that there are two different definitions of a player's value. One is what it would cost to obtain similar production in free agency, which I've focused on so far. The other is what other teams are willing to pay in free agency, and that's a more interesting question in Green's case.
Had he gone to free agency next summer, Green would have had the chance to be the best unrestricted free agent available. Aside from Anthony Davis, who seems likely to re-sign with the Los Angeles Lakers despite his refusal to give any assurances about his long-term future after being traded to L.A., the other multitime All-Stars under age 30 potentially available are DeMarcus Cousins, DeMar DeRozan and Andre Drummond (the latter two holding player options).
At the same time, knowing the 2020 crop of free agents would be weak, few contending teams saved much cap space for next summer. Aside from rebuilding teams like Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Memphis and Oklahoma City, Green's possible landing spots for a more lucrative contract would have been limited. Detroit could have max-level space if Drummond declines his playoff option, but the Pistons have Blake Griffin at power forward. Ditto DeRozan and San Antonio, although the Spurs could slide LaMarcus Aldridge back to center full time.
If those teams were off the table, Green's best hope of a superior offer might have been the New York Knicks, who signed several free agents this summer to contracts with small guarantees for 2020-21. The prospect of trying to lead the Knicks' young players back to relevance presumably made staying with the Warriors all the more appealing. So while Green might have been able to command more money next summer, he probably would not have been able to find a better situation.
Golden State core under contract
Green was set to be the last of the Warriors' four core All-Stars to hit free agency. Though Durant left for the Brooklyn Nets, the other three are now all under contract through at least 2021-22, when Curry could be a free agent if he doesn't reach an extension beforehand. That group now also includes D'Angelo Russell, acquired by Golden State for Durant in a double sign-and-trade that hard-capped the Warriors this season.
By next summer, Golden State's spending will no longer be restricted, aside from the usual limitations for taxpaying teams. With Curry, Green, Russell and Klay Thompson scheduled to make a combined $130 million-plus in 2020-21, the Warriors will almost certainly start the offseason in the tax. But they'll be able to use the taxpayer midlevel exception to add to their team after the hard cap prevented them from using all of it this summer. (Golden State used the midlevel exception to sign second-round picks Eric Paschall and Alen Smailagic to contracts longer than two years and to sign center Willie Cauley-Stein for slightly more than the minimum.)
The Warriors will also have a two-day window after the moratorium ends next July 6 to utilize the $17.2 million trade exception they created by sending Andre Iguodala to the Memphis Grizzlies because of the hard cap.
Golden State's tax bill will be enormous, but as long as the team contends for championships and the brand-new Chase Center remains a profit center, ownership figures to swallow that cost. Where the Warriors go from here will depend in large part whether Russell is eventually a trade piece or remains part of the core. Either way, the three-time champions now know that they have the three All-Stars who have powered their entire run signed up long-term.
I'm not digging into his formula but that and "second-biggest active playoff overachiever behind LeBron James" are good arguments for paying Draymond.
538's model suggests his contract is fair for what he does in the regular season and, to this point in his career, that's just the tip of the iceberg in terms of what he brings to the table.
What Draymond Green's new deal means for the Warriors
Kevin Pelton
ESPN Staff Writer
Is Draymond Green's four-year, $100 million extension -- as reported by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski -- a good value for him and the Golden State Warriors?
Green was heading into the final season of a five-year deal he signed in the summer of 2015, the last one before the NBA's new TV contracts caused the salary cap to spike. As a result, the $18.5 million Green will make in 2019-20 had been the high-water mark in a career that has resulted in three All-Star appearances, a Defensive Player of the Year award and three championships for the Warriors.
A year ahead of potentially being one of the top free agents on the market next summer, Green locked in the security of a new four-year deal that will pay him more than ever before. How will that affect Golden State's planning for the future? Let's take a look.
Projecting Green's value
Last November, I looked at how Green's value might hold up over the life of a possible new five-year contract after his current one ends. Then, throughout the season, Green's performance offered arguments both hopeful and pessimistic about how he will age in his 30s.
Green's 2018-19 regular season was his worst since he emerged as a key player during the Warriors' first championship campaign in 2014-15. That was especially true in terms of per-game stats, where Green's marks fell across the board from the previous three years. He particularly dropped off as a scorer, averaging just 7.4 points per game, down from 11.0 the year before and 14.0 as recently as 2015-16 -- not coincidentally, the season before the Warriors signed Kevin Durant.
From the perspective of advanced stats, Green's decline wasn't quite so precipitous, but his plus-2.0 rating in Basketball-Reference.com's box plus-minus metric was his lowest since his rookie season, down from plus-3.2 in 2017-18 and 5-plus each of the three years before that.
Green's focus, however, has long been on the playoffs rather than the grind of the regular season. And come the postseason, after getting in better shape, he emerged as perhaps the second-most-important Golden State player after Stephen Curry during the Warriors' run to the NBA Finals. Green's 13.3 PPG in the playoffs were his most since 2016, and his 8.5 assists per game were a career high. He recorded six triple-doubles, a total exceeded during a playoff run only by Wilt Chamberlain in Basketball-Reference.com's database and matched only by Magic Johnson.
That outcome was nothing new for Green, who ranked as my second-biggest active playoff overachiever behind LeBron James entering last year's NBA Finals. While it's possible that could change if Golden State no longer consistently plays into June, putting more importance on the 82-game schedule, focusing largely on the postseason is a possible way for Green to retain his value while he ages.
The new version of FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO projections accounts for the distinction between regular season and playoff value and shows a wide gulf for Green. Over the life of his extension, he's forecasted to provide just 10.1 wins above replacement (WAR) during the regular season. Come the postseason, his projection comes to the equivalent of 17.2 WAR.
Accounting for Green's playoff value is important. By CARMELO's model, Green would be fairly paid from 2020-21 through 2023-24 based on regular-season play. CARMELO values his regular-season production at approximately $98 million. His playoff production, however, is valued at over $160 million. CARMELO is much more aggressively pricing the cost of the win than my equivalent model, based on the cost of buying a win in free agency. But Green's level of play during the playoffs should still come out worth near or above $100 million over the life of his extension.
Did Green maximize his contract?
It's important here to keep in mind that there are two different definitions of a player's value. One is what it would cost to obtain similar production in free agency, which I've focused on so far. The other is what other teams are willing to pay in free agency, and that's a more interesting question in Green's case.
Had he gone to free agency next summer, Green would have had the chance to be the best unrestricted free agent available. Aside from Anthony Davis, who seems likely to re-sign with the Los Angeles Lakers despite his refusal to give any assurances about his long-term future after being traded to L.A., the other multitime All-Stars under age 30 potentially available are DeMarcus Cousins, DeMar DeRozan and Andre Drummond (the latter two holding player options).
At the same time, knowing the 2020 crop of free agents would be weak, few contending teams saved much cap space for next summer. Aside from rebuilding teams like Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Memphis and Oklahoma City, Green's possible landing spots for a more lucrative contract would have been limited. Detroit could have max-level space if Drummond declines his playoff option, but the Pistons have Blake Griffin at power forward. Ditto DeRozan and San Antonio, although the Spurs could slide LaMarcus Aldridge back to center full time.
If those teams were off the table, Green's best hope of a superior offer might have been the New York Knicks, who signed several free agents this summer to contracts with small guarantees for 2020-21. The prospect of trying to lead the Knicks' young players back to relevance presumably made staying with the Warriors all the more appealing. So while Green might have been able to command more money next summer, he probably would not have been able to find a better situation.
Golden State core under contract
Green was set to be the last of the Warriors' four core All-Stars to hit free agency. Though Durant left for the Brooklyn Nets, the other three are now all under contract through at least 2021-22, when Curry could be a free agent if he doesn't reach an extension beforehand. That group now also includes D'Angelo Russell, acquired by Golden State for Durant in a double sign-and-trade that hard-capped the Warriors this season.
By next summer, Golden State's spending will no longer be restricted, aside from the usual limitations for taxpaying teams. With Curry, Green, Russell and Klay Thompson scheduled to make a combined $130 million-plus in 2020-21, the Warriors will almost certainly start the offseason in the tax. But they'll be able to use the taxpayer midlevel exception to add to their team after the hard cap prevented them from using all of it this summer. (Golden State used the midlevel exception to sign second-round picks Eric Paschall and Alen Smailagic to contracts longer than two years and to sign center Willie Cauley-Stein for slightly more than the minimum.)
The Warriors will also have a two-day window after the moratorium ends next July 6 to utilize the $17.2 million trade exception they created by sending Andre Iguodala to the Memphis Grizzlies because of the hard cap.
Golden State's tax bill will be enormous, but as long as the team contends for championships and the brand-new Chase Center remains a profit center, ownership figures to swallow that cost. Where the Warriors go from here will depend in large part whether Russell is eventually a trade piece or remains part of the core. Either way, the three-time champions now know that they have the three All-Stars who have powered their entire run signed up long-term.
I wish Green got more money...
He is severely underrated
The soul of that system and that team.
But this deal insured he would always be in play off contention for the length of that contract
Be comfortable in a known environment, new arena, off the court opportunity and probably retire a warrior and get his number retired and have a life long attachment to the team
Again i really believe he could have gotten more and sofn on to a viable contender
But overall this PROBABLY best.
I will hold off full comment cause i want to hear what the reliable nba numbers guys say.
He is severely underrated
The soul of that system and that team.
But this deal insured he would always be in play off contention for the length of that contract
Be comfortable in a known environment, new arena, off the court opportunity and probably retire a warrior and get his number retired and have a life long attachment to the team
Again i really believe he could have gotten more and sofn on to a viable contender
But overall this PROBABLY best.
I will hold off full comment cause i want to hear what the reliable nba numbers guys say.
Damn.
But did dray have to sign with Klutch to do this deal?
I'm sure his previous agent could have done this?
Last edited:
Last edited:
Last edited:
Last edited:
Last edited:
Last edited:
I think he got a good deal. Maybe slightly overpaid but if he plays like he did the 2nd half of last season it's worth it.
Honestly based on performance throughout most of last season, signing an extension now might have been in Draymond's best interest. Besides as others have stated, I never saw him getting the max nor do I see him integrating well into a different system. Dub Natiob is his home. Hopefully he can stay with them for the rest of his career.
I’m looking forward to seeing how Curry-Green-Russell play next season.
The West still has to go through the Lakers.
Paul George is a great defender but is one of the most inefficient volume scorers in the league, about the same as Westbrook. Leonard and George won’t be enough.
The West still has to go through the Lakers.
Paul George is a great defender but is one of the most inefficient volume scorers in the league, about the same as Westbrook. Leonard and George won’t be enough.
‘Melo couldn’t play in the NBA today. His best chance is BIG3
Big3... ....
He's one of the worst defenders in the league. There was a time when people overlooked his shortcomings on D because he was a prolific scorer. Now he's older, scores less, and he's gotten worse on D. His negatives far outweigh his positives.
I know, explain that to jason
GS gonna be straight this year but next year they gonna be real good; they gonna use that trade exception plus trade D Russell that's their move....
You mad rich, do what Snaq did and get a masters online. Easy as pie. Or you can hire a brother from college and put him in "charge" of your NCAA clients.
