trump is done, son.
- Thread starter TEN
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I Agree....He's that Heckler that got into the game and realized it's harder than he thought.
Click Link : http://trumpcovidplan.com
Which swing state, if called for Biden on election night, would more than any other imply a defeat for Donald Trump?
Of the likely candidates, I gotta go with Florida here.
Right now, FiveThirtyEight has the chances of a Trump victory at 12/100.
A reminder. That’s not “This is going to be a blowout. It’s chances to win. In 2016, they had Trump’s chance to win at 28.6% and he pulled it off.
When you look at Fivethirtyeight’s modeling, if you shift Florida into Solid blue, The race is over. Meaning there is less than a one percent chance Trump wins it
The reason for that is, if Trump loses Florida, it represents a 58 Electoral vote swing. That would mean he would have to keep every other state he won in 2016 just to maintain his Electoral vote win. He can only afford a 77 vote swing. That would mean any state with 10 Electoral votes would finish the job.
Like Michigan’s 16 votes, which don’t look very likely to go Trump’s way right now.
Or Even Wisconsin’s 10 votes:
It’s important to remember that even though Biden is slightly favored to win Florida, it is a lower projection than 2016’s projection for a Clinton win, The projection is right now 67/100 in favor of Biden. Would you play a round of Russian Roulette with a revolver that only had 3 chambers?
Florida is a BIG prize, and as always it’s very purple. Biden can certainly win without Florida, he just has to win Pennsylvania and Michigan plus either Wisconsin, Arizona or North Carolina, all of which are tilted slightly blue right now.
But losing Florida is a dagger. Trump loses that, it’s game over.
Of the likely candidates, I gotta go with Florida here.
Right now, FiveThirtyEight has the chances of a Trump victory at 12/100.
A reminder. That’s not “This is going to be a blowout. It’s chances to win. In 2016, they had Trump’s chance to win at 28.6% and he pulled it off.
When you look at Fivethirtyeight’s modeling, if you shift Florida into Solid blue, The race is over. Meaning there is less than a one percent chance Trump wins it
The reason for that is, if Trump loses Florida, it represents a 58 Electoral vote swing. That would mean he would have to keep every other state he won in 2016 just to maintain his Electoral vote win. He can only afford a 77 vote swing. That would mean any state with 10 Electoral votes would finish the job.
Like Michigan’s 16 votes, which don’t look very likely to go Trump’s way right now.
Or Even Wisconsin’s 10 votes:
It’s important to remember that even though Biden is slightly favored to win Florida, it is a lower projection than 2016’s projection for a Clinton win, The projection is right now 67/100 in favor of Biden. Would you play a round of Russian Roulette with a revolver that only had 3 chambers?
Florida is a BIG prize, and as always it’s very purple. Biden can certainly win without Florida, he just has to win Pennsylvania and Michigan plus either Wisconsin, Arizona or North Carolina, all of which are tilted slightly blue right now.
But losing Florida is a dagger. Trump loses that, it’s game over.
This is a dope ass mufuckin chart!!!!!
Yeah it is! I'm always looking for new ways to display data. Nice.Which swing state, if called for Biden on election night, would more than any other imply a defeat for Donald Trump?
Of the likely candidates, I gotta go with Florida here.
Right now, FiveThirtyEight has the chances of a Trump victory at 12/100.
A reminder. That’s not “This is going to be a blowout. It’s chances to win. In 2016, they had Trump’s chance to win at 28.6% and he pulled it off.
When you look at Fivethirtyeight’s modeling, if you shift Florida into Solid blue, The race is over. Meaning there is less than a one percent chance Trump wins it
The reason for that is, if Trump loses Florida, it represents a 58 Electoral vote swing. That would mean he would have to keep every other state he won in 2016 just to maintain his Electoral vote win. He can only afford a 77 vote swing. That would mean any state with 10 Electoral votes would finish the job.
Like Michigan’s 16 votes, which don’t look very likely to go Trump’s way right now.
Or Even Wisconsin’s 10 votes:
It’s important to remember that even though Biden is slightly favored to win Florida, it is a lower projection than 2016’s projection for a Clinton win, The projection is right now 67/100 in favor of Biden. Would you play a round of Russian Roulette with a revolver that only had 3 chambers?
Florida is a BIG prize, and as always it’s very purple. Biden can certainly win without Florida, he just has to win Pennsylvania and Michigan plus either Wisconsin, Arizona or North Carolina, all of which are tilted slightly blue right now.
But losing Florida is a dagger. Trump loses that, it’s game over.
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