Reconstruction and rivalries: What to expect from Saudi Arabia's Gaza summit
Hamas has already made a big concession by allowing private American and Egyptian military contractors to operate inside Gaza
US President Donald Trump’s call for a mass forced displacement of
Palestinians from the
Gaza Strip was meant to “shake up everyone’s thinking”, his envoy said on the eve of a meeting in
Saudi Arabia by the US’s Arab allies to discuss
Egypt’s plan for post-war Gaza.
"When the president talks about this, it means he wants to shake up everyone's thinking and think about what is compelling and what is the best solution for the Palestinian people," Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, said on Thursday at an investment conference in Miami.
"For instance, do they want to live in a home there or would they rather have an opportunity to resettle in some sort of better place, to have jobs, upside and financial prospects," he added.
The US’s closest Arab partners were thrown into disarray when Trump said he wanted to empty Gaza of Palestinians and take over the enclave. But they have started to move on a counter-proposal.
In fact, after a meeting between Trump and King Abdullah of
Jordan earlier in February, they believe the king successfully convinced Trump to ditch his takeover idea in return for a post-war plan spearheaded by Cairo, an Egyptian official told MEE.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is expected to host leaders from Egypt, Jordan,
Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates in Riyadh on Friday to discuss the Egyptian proposal.
Who pays for reconstruction?
The Saudi meeting has the added benefit of occurring simultaneously with the FII summit in Miami that Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund hosts. Trump has said he is eager to increase Saudi investments in the US and is scheduled to address the event.
'To reconstruct a territory that the Israelis might just destroy again in a matter of years, I don’t think that would be a sensible thing to do'
- Prince Khalid bin Bandar bin Sultan Al Saud, Saudi ambassador to UK
Just because Trump has warmed up to an Arab post-war plan for Gaza and is keen on Gulf cash does not mean the crown prince and his counterparts have it easy.
The Egyptian plan, which has now been widely reported, calls, unsurprisingly, for Palestinians to stay in the Gaza Strip. They would live in mobile housing while debris is cleared away and reconstruction begins.
The main sticking point is who will pay for reconstruction and temporary housing.
Analysts and diplomats have speculated that Trump’s call for the US to take over the enclave without paying for it was a ploy to get oil-rich Gulf states to foot the bill.
More than $50bn will be required to rebuild Gaza, a joint assessment provided by the United Nations, European Union and World Bank on Tuesday said. At least $20bn will be required in the first three years.
Egypt and Jordan are cash-strapped, and the US has put no pressure on Israel to pay for the devastation of its bombing campaign, so Saudi Arabia, the
UAE and Qatar would have to foot the bill.
That itself is a major jump. In recent years, the Gulf states have become reluctant to give funds to their poorer Arab neighbours. In Egypt, they have demanded businesses and other concessions in return for keeping President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s government afloat.
Palestinians walk past tents lining the streets amid the rubble of destroyed buildings in Jabalia, in the northern Gaza Strip, on 18 February (Omar al-Qattaa/AFP)
Trump actually hinted at what could be the most likely model for Gaza’s redevelopment by saying that in return for rebuilding the war-torn enclave, the US would obtain development rights. Instead of the US, it could be the Gulf states.
The UAE did the same thing in Egypt by paying $35bn to develop Ras el-Hekma on Egypt’s northwestern coast.
But the Gulf states have dug in, saying they will not spend money if Gaza can just be blown up again by Israel.
Asked in an interview in January if Saudi Arabia would fund Gaza’s reconstruction, Prince Khalid bin Bandar bin Sultan Al Saud, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the UK,
said: “To reconstruct a Palestinian state, yes. To reconstruct a territory that the Israelis might destroy again in a matter of years, I don’t think that would be a sensible thing to do.”
Israel is dead-set against the creation of a Palestinian state and the unification of Gaza and the occupied West Bank under a single Palestinian government. But that is also Saudi Arabia's official precondition for normalising relations with Israel - a key goal for both the Trump administration and Israel.
Will Israel restart the war?
Some heavy machinery for reconstruction has started arriving in Gaza, in a deal Egypt brokered. But before that starts, the war-ravaged enclave’s security must be settled.
On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a pre-recorded video vowing revenge after Hamas handed over the bodies of four dead captives, including an infant and his four-year-old brother.
"Our loved ones' blood is shouting at us from the soil and is obliging us to settle the score with the despicable murderers, and we will,” Netanyahu said.
During the event, like previous captive releases, Hamas demonstrated that its organisational and military capacities remain intact. It also drew large crowds of Palestinians.
Israel launched its ferocious assault on Gaza after the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attack on southern Israel, vowing to totally eliminate the group from power. It has not been able to do so.
Israel has killed at least 48,319 Palestinians during its bombing campaign and invasion of the enclave, the majority of whom are women and children. Thousands are still missing, maimed or orphaned.
Israel said its condition for phase II ceasefire talks, which would lay the groundwork for Gaza’s post-war governance, is that neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority (PA) govern the Gaza Strip.
Will Hamas give up security control?
Hamas has demonstrated that it retains its arsenal and can easily put fighters in the field. Meanwhile, the PA previously told the US it was prepared to “clash” with the group in order to take power in the Gaza Strip.
A senior Egyptian official told MEE that their plan would not entail intra-Palestinian violence because they will establish a police force made up of Palestinians from Gaza who do not belong to Hamas and are not affiliated with the PA in the occupied West Bank. Meanwhile, they will appoint local technocrats and notables to govern the enclave in its early days.
Hamas fighters gather at site of the handing over of the bodies of four Israeli hostages, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, on 20 February (Omar al-Qattaa/AFP)
The Egyptian official did not say who they would use. One high-profile figure who could potentially fill that role or play kingmaker is Mohammad Dahlan, a member of the secular Palestinian party Fatah, who is an ally of the UAE.
Dahlan has been travelling often to Cairo in recent months. He was a former PA enforcer in Gaza but clashed with PA President Mahmoud Abbas.
The UAE has publicly said it is willing to deploy Arab peacekeepers to Gaza in return for a new leadership in the PA. But Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE all have different Palestinian allies, so they will need to agree - at a time when they are backing rivals in civil wars like Sudan.
Hamas previously told MEE it was willing to cede governance to other Palestinians, but the real question is whether the group would lay down its arms.
The Egyptian official told MEE they are trying to prevent a situation resembling 1990 Lebanon, where a Lebanese government was formed that ended that country’s civil war, but Hezbollah kept its weapons.
Hamas has already made a major concession on security in the Gaza Strip. As part of the ceasefire deal, American and Egyptian private military contractors have been deployed at the Netzarim Corridor bisecting Gaza.
Photos online show them in tactical gear and cradling assault rifles. There have been no public reports of fighting with Hamas or any other Palestinian armed group.