Man I'm just looking at TX numbers alone, I see why the Republicans are going shit crazy with voter suppression...
2016
Harris County: 2,234,672 registered voters... only 56.1% actually voted
Dallas County: 1,287,082 registered voters... only 56.3% actually voted.
Bexar County: 1,045,357 registered voters... only 53.6% actually voted.
Travis County: 725,035 registered voters... only 60% actually voted
Currently those 4 counties combined has
616,000 NEW voters since 2016
..................
Another thing to note is the percentage of vote from the 2012 election to the 2016 election.
2012: Romney, 57.2% of the total vote
2016: Trump, 52.2% of the total vote
........
So if they can get to 65% turnout in those 4 counties and flip some Trump voters plus peel off some votes in the surrounding suburban counties (or pick one county off totally), it might be lights out.
Disclaimer, I really don't know shit about TX politics/voters so someone from there can easily say I'm on some BS and I won't even argue it.