Kill Nebraskans.
Joe Biden is now POTUS
- Thread starter Spectrum
- Start date
Who is the one percenter democrat from Florida?
Since Polls look at likely voters this massive turnout by youngsters can’t possibly be adequately accounted for. Those numbers are staggering.
Yeah. I think the polling is going to be way off because of the unprecedented nature of this election.. and that benefits Biden.. i think this current polling is BEST CASE scenario for Trump
Florida Man
I said this earlier and I would have him in FL also..Biden has more surrogates that can literally be used like chess pieces on a chess board..get Bernie out there too..make sure to fortify the young folks in michigan and Wisconsin..they dont seem to like him too much in the south
I love it!
I love seeing a black woman dance
With the numbers released today, two more Texas counties have passed their 2016 presidential vote total.
That's now 3 counties that have passed the 2016 total which 2 of those flipped blue in the 2018 senate race (Williamson and Hays, both Austin suburbs).
Yo @Spectrum, I know you asked me about that 350k Republican number and I messed that up not taking into consideration people voting for 3rd party candidates or write-ins. So taking the percentage that Ted Cruz got, Trump would have at minimum 61k LESS votes.
My 10-26-2020 snapshot
TX 152 largest counties of registered voters
Trump = (% of voters who voted in 2016 per county) x (# of 2020 registered voters per county) x (% of Cruz votes in 2018 per county)
Biden = (% of voters who voted in 2016 per county) x (# of 2020 registered voters per county) x (% of Beto votes in 2018 per county)
Trump: 4,492,637
Biden: 4,196,472
296,165
If and when the top 10 counties pass their 2016 vote total, that's when shit will get real. Basically TX republicans are having a "hold the door" moment this week.
- Williamson county (Austin suburban county)
- Denton county (Dallas suburban county)
That's now 3 counties that have passed the 2016 total which 2 of those flipped blue in the 2018 senate race (Williamson and Hays, both Austin suburbs).
Yo @Spectrum, I know you asked me about that 350k Republican number and I messed that up not taking into consideration people voting for 3rd party candidates or write-ins. So taking the percentage that Ted Cruz got, Trump would have at minimum 61k LESS votes.
My 10-26-2020 snapshot
TX 152 largest counties of registered voters
Trump = (% of voters who voted in 2016 per county) x (# of 2020 registered voters per county) x (% of Cruz votes in 2018 per county)
Biden = (% of voters who voted in 2016 per county) x (# of 2020 registered voters per county) x (% of Beto votes in 2018 per county)
Trump: 4,492,637
Biden: 4,196,472
296,165
If and when the top 10 counties pass their 2016 vote total, that's when shit will get real. Basically TX republicans are having a "hold the door" moment this week.
From the Atlantic Journal Constitution 4 days ago...
- Over 7.6 million people are registered to vote, a record high.
- Automatic voter registration has lead to an increase of almost 1 million Georgia voters since 2016.
- About 53% of voters identify themselves as white and 30% as Black. Voters who said they were Hispanic account for 4% of the state's voters. About 9% of voters left their race blank when registering.
- People under 35 years old make up 33% of Georgia's voters while voters over 65 are the next largest age group at 18%
Still not counting chickens yet but If this is right for PA,
targetearly.targetsmart.com
TargetSmart's Early Vote Dashboard
Early and absentee voting data is more important than ever. TargetSmart has created a site to paint a picture of the votes cast thus far. Check back often for updates.
| Registered Party | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 60,327 (42.2%) | 46,403 (45.2%) | 1,005,849 (70.8%) |
| Republican | 69,252 (48.4%) | 47,769 (46.5%) | 286,675 (20.2%) |
| Other | 3,473 (2.4%) | 2,118 (2.1%) | 23,515 (1.7%) |
| Unaffiliated | 9,963 (7.0%) | 6,419 (6.2%) | 105,576 (7.4%) |
| Total | 143,015 | 102,709 | 1,421,615 |
I love the enthusiasm man, let's hope we send the bitch home in style!!!
Still not counting chickens yet but If this is right for PA,
TargetSmart's Early Vote Dashboard
Early and absentee voting data is more important than ever. TargetSmart has created a site to paint a picture of the votes cast thus far. Check back often for updates.
Registered Party 2016 2018 2020 Democrat 60,327 (42.2%) 46,403 (45.2%) 1,005,849 (70.8%) Republican 69,252 (48.4%) 47,769 (46.5%) 286,675 (20.2%) Other 3,473 (2.4%) 2,118 (2.1%) 23,515 (1.7%) Unaffiliated 9,963 (7.0%) 6,419 (6.2%) 105,576 (7.4%) Total 143,015 102,709 1,421,615
What about naked ballots?
Which swing state, if called for Biden on election night, would more than any other imply a defeat for Donald Trump?
Of the likely candidates, I gotta go with Florida here.
Right now, FiveThirtyEight has the chances of a Trump victory at 12/100.
A reminder. That’s not “This is going to be a blowout. It’s chances to win. In 2016, they had Trump’s chance to win at 28.6% and he pulled it off.
When you look at Fivethirtyeight’s modeling, if you shift Florida into Solid blue, The race is over. Meaning there is less than a one percent chance Trump wins it
The reason for that is, if Trump loses Florida, it represents a 58 Electoral vote swing. That would mean he would have to keep every other state he won in 2016 just to maintain his Electoral vote win. He can only afford a 77 vote swing. That would mean any state with 10 Electoral votes would finish the job.
Like Michigan’s 16 votes, which don’t look very likely to go Trump’s way right now.
Or Even Wisconsin’s 10 votes:
It’s important to remember that even though Biden is slightly favored to win Florida, it is a lower projection than 2016’s projection for a Clinton win, The projection is right now 67/100 in favor of Biden. Would you play a round of Russian Roulette with a revolver that only had 3 chambers?
Florida is a BIG prize, and as always it’s very purple. Biden can certainly win without Florida, he just has to win Pennsylvania and Michigan plus either Wisconsin, Arizona or North Carolina, all of which are tilted slightly blue right now.
But losing Florida is a dagger. Trump loses that, it’s game over.
Of the likely candidates, I gotta go with Florida here.
Right now, FiveThirtyEight has the chances of a Trump victory at 12/100.
A reminder. That’s not “This is going to be a blowout. It’s chances to win. In 2016, they had Trump’s chance to win at 28.6% and he pulled it off.
When you look at Fivethirtyeight’s modeling, if you shift Florida into Solid blue, The race is over. Meaning there is less than a one percent chance Trump wins it
The reason for that is, if Trump loses Florida, it represents a 58 Electoral vote swing. That would mean he would have to keep every other state he won in 2016 just to maintain his Electoral vote win. He can only afford a 77 vote swing. That would mean any state with 10 Electoral votes would finish the job.
Like Michigan’s 16 votes, which don’t look very likely to go Trump’s way right now.
Or Even Wisconsin’s 10 votes:
It’s important to remember that even though Biden is slightly favored to win Florida, it is a lower projection than 2016’s projection for a Clinton win, The projection is right now 67/100 in favor of Biden. Would you play a round of Russian Roulette with a revolver that only had 3 chambers?
Florida is a BIG prize, and as always it’s very purple. Biden can certainly win without Florida, he just has to win Pennsylvania and Michigan plus either Wisconsin, Arizona or North Carolina, all of which are tilted slightly blue right now.
But losing Florida is a dagger. Trump loses that, it’s game over.
This is good because Repubs always vote in high numbers but when Dems vote in high numbers it's a blowout.
4,741,564 votes were cast in 2016.
(3,171,202 divided by 4,741,564) x 100 = 66.8% total votes of 2016.
Thats crazy!
I truly believe Biden gets Florida. Mentioned this numerous times, but there are plenty of Biden signs here, in urban AND rural areas.Which swing state, if called for Biden on election night, would more than any other imply a defeat for Donald Trump?
Of the likely candidates, I gotta go with Florida here.
Right now, FiveThirtyEight has the chances of a Trump victory at 12/100.
A reminder. That’s not “This is going to be a blowout. It’s chances to win. In 2016, they had Trump’s chance to win at 28.6% and he pulled it off.
When you look at Fivethirtyeight’s modeling, if you shift Florida into Solid blue, The race is over. Meaning there is less than a one percent chance Trump wins it
The reason for that is, if Trump loses Florida, it represents a 58 Electoral vote swing. That would mean he would have to keep every other state he won in 2016 just to maintain his Electoral vote win. He can only afford a 77 vote swing. That would mean any state with 10 Electoral votes would finish the job.
Like Michigan’s 16 votes, which don’t look very likely to go Trump’s way right now.
Or Even Wisconsin’s 10 votes:
It’s important to remember that even though Biden is slightly favored to win Florida, it is a lower projection than 2016’s projection for a Clinton win, The projection is right now 67/100 in favor of Biden. Would you play a round of Russian Roulette with a revolver that only had 3 chambers?
Florida is a BIG prize, and as always it’s very purple. Biden can certainly win without Florida, he just has to win Pennsylvania and Michigan plus either Wisconsin, Arizona or North Carolina, all of which are tilted slightly blue right now.
But losing Florida is a dagger. Trump loses that, it’s game over.
I think Central Florida is the key.
Central Florida is tech heavy, a lot of young professionals, and there are a TON of Northerners here, from New York and the New England states that are familiar with Chumps fuckery.
Throw in the Puerto Rican population that was displaced post Hurricane Maria and I really think Florida leans Blue.
Daily Kos
Daily Kos is a progressive news site that fights for democracy by giving our audience information and resources to win elections and impact government. Our coverage is assiduously factual, ethical, and unapologetically liberal. We amplify what we think is important, with the proper context—not...
Black people.... saving this fucking country from itself once again.
We're saving ourselves. The country is just an added bonus.
truthfully if anyone with a mail-in ballot hasn't already made the necessary effort to assure their ballot is received on time ( either by mailing with first class postage or dropping off at proper city clerk or drop box location) thats on them.