Joe Biden is now POTUS
- Thread starter Spectrum
- Start date
I have been trying to go back over the data from 2016 and it is actually encouraging. For example, Trump won Michigan by 11k votes in large part because turnout in Detroit was down 37K votes versus 2012. This has some good data: https://www.mlive.com/news/2016/11/see_how_every_michigan_county.html
There are not going to be "new" Trump votes so getting turnout in major cities in swing states back to 2012 levels should be enough to defeat this clown ass cac. Everything I have seen thus far shows that turnout may be at 2008 levels so I am pretty optimistic.
There are not going to be "new" Trump votes so getting turnout in major cities in swing states back to 2012 levels should be enough to defeat this clown ass cac. Everything I have seen thus far shows that turnout may be at 2008 levels so I am pretty optimistic.
That’s how I’m feeling.
Basically!
If you sitting on an absentee ballot and depending on the USPS to deliver your shit on time knowing whats at stake then that’s on you.
Lawd!!!
Man I hope you’re right. I’m actually one of the few ones that believe this shit will be over election night.
texasWhich swing state, if called for Biden on election night, would more than any other imply a defeat for Donald Trump?
Of the likely candidates, I gotta go with Florida here.
Right now, FiveThirtyEight has the chances of a Trump victory at 12/100.
A reminder. That’s not “This is going to be a blowout. It’s chances to win. In 2016, they had Trump’s chance to win at 28.6% and he pulled it off.
When you look at Fivethirtyeight’s modeling, if you shift Florida into Solid blue, The race is over. Meaning there is less than a one percent chance Trump wins it
The reason for that is, if Trump loses Florida, it represents a 58 Electoral vote swing. That would mean he would have to keep every other state he won in 2016 just to maintain his Electoral vote win. He can only afford a 77 vote swing. That would mean any state with 10 Electoral votes would finish the job.
Like Michigan’s 16 votes, which don’t look very likely to go Trump’s way right now.
Or Even Wisconsin’s 10 votes:
It’s important to remember that even though Biden is slightly favored to win Florida, it is a lower projection than 2016’s projection for a Clinton win, The projection is right now 67/100 in favor of Biden. Would you play a round of Russian Roulette with a revolver that only had 3 chambers?
Florida is a BIG prize, and as always it’s very purple. Biden can certainly win without Florida, he just has to win Pennsylvania and Michigan plus either Wisconsin, Arizona or North Carolina, all of which are tilted slightly blue right now.
But losing Florida is a dagger. Trump loses that, it’s game over.
If Biden let’s this country ...
If the people of this country accepts that sort of bullshit logic then we really deserve the anal rapes.
Nobody cares what that silly, stupid woman thought then and or now.
Texas snapshot
10-26-2020 nighttime unofficial
TX 176 largest counties of registered voters (5,000 + voters) + 2016 Trump votes and Beto 2018 votes of the remaining counties
Trump = (% of voters who voted in 2016 per county) x (# of 2020 registered voters per county) x (% of Cruz votes in 2018 per county)
Biden = (% of voters who voted in 2016 per county) x (# of 2020 registered voters per county) x (% of Beto votes in 2018 per county)
Trump: 4,593,338
Biden: 4,293,438
299,900
Things that must happen...
10-26-2020 nighttime unofficial
TX 176 largest counties of registered voters (5,000 + voters) + 2016 Trump votes and Beto 2018 votes of the remaining counties
Trump = (% of voters who voted in 2016 per county) x (# of 2020 registered voters per county) x (% of Cruz votes in 2018 per county)
Biden = (% of voters who voted in 2016 per county) x (# of 2020 registered voters per county) x (% of Beto votes in 2018 per county)
Trump: 4,593,338
Biden: 4,293,438
299,900
Things that must happen...
- Turnout - They MUST get the turnout in the urban/suburban areas, record turnout at that. Only 2 of the top 10 population counties had over 55% turnout. Hopefully all of them can get to 60% at minimum.
- The Beto line - Biden has to get at minimum, the percentage of votes in each county that Beto got in his US Senate race if not more. One thing he can't do is lose points.
- Mexican border - There are 4 counties on the Mexican border or super close that are heavily democratic voting at 62% minimum (El Paso, Hilgaldo, Cameron, Willacy). It's also a problem that voter participation of these counties were at 45% or less in the in the 2016 election. If these people don't get the fuck out and vote against this racist who probably thinks that all of them are illegals, then they ain't SHIT.
- Caring Karen? - You know who this is...the white woman living in the suburbs who hates Trump and will call the cops on your black ass in a heartbeat (but still voted for that fuckboy because they were so undecided and hated Hillary). Maybe some of them had a change after the George Floyd shit? In all regards, Biden has to flip some of these voters.
Last edited:
Millions are without power where he is...but he be posting updates by the minute on BGOL.You posting with a whole hurricane busting your ass right now
And his screen name is "Spectrum"
Millions are without power where he is...but he be posting updates by the minute on BGOL.
And his screen name is "Spectrum"
Right. Knowing damn well “Spectrum” stay with outages around here. But this mysterious BGOL member that’s done been through two hurricanes in a month stay with power while millions of other people are without.
This is because Cubans are fucking idiots
Isn’t that interesting? The literacy rate in Cuba increased exponentially as they were expelled. And the collapse in academics in Florida probably coincides with their arrival.
SMH.. I think Democrats will regret the hands off approach to the state while Republicans were busting ass registering people. This shouldn't be close. If Democrats don't turnout in big numbers in Palm Beach, Broward and Miami.. Trump will win.
Truthfully, folks who really want this cocksucker out of office will just get off their asses and go vote. That’s also on them. Trust me, most folk ain’t waiting on no mail in ballot to cast. We gonna tear his ass off the bone when we punt it into history soon son. Quote that.
He spoke nothing but the truth.
Say thigh name, LEGEND.Millions are without power where he is...but he be posting updates by the minute on BGOL.
And his screen name is "Spectrum"
Glad folks are voting but NYC is going blue..if we could siphon some of those Den voters down to PA though..lol
You posting with a whole hurricane busting your ass right now
it wasnt that bad last night. Wind died down at about 2am. Power not out for long. That’s 3 storms in less than a month. Smh. I feel like a vet now