Joe Biden is now POTUS

[playahaitian]

https://twitter.com/i/events/1322311970305892352

An absentee ballot in New York was not pre-marked but filled out by the voter who requested it, according to the AP and NYC Board of Elections

An absentee ballot mailed to an address in New York City was not pre-marked, according to the New York City Board of Elections. An absentee New York voter who mailed the ballot from California put it in the wrong envelope so that it was sent back to their previously listed address in Queens, NY, the AP reports. A video of the absentee ballot circulated online sparking false claims that the ballot arrived pre-marked. There has been no evidence that voters in New York have received pre-marked ballots, according to election officials.

What you need to know
- There is no evidence that voters received pre-marked ballots in New York, according to election officials

- A video of a ballot circulating online was filled out by an absentee New York voter and put in the wrong envelope when sent back, according to the AP

- The NYC Board of Elections says it has not received any reports of pre-marked ballots being sent out

 

[playahaitian]

Texas Republicans ask federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting

On Friday, Texas Republicans petitioned a federal court to reject over 100,000 ballots cast through curbside voting in Harris County, Texas. These efforts follow an October 22 decision by the Texas Supreme Court denying a GOP bid to shut down curbside voting — also know as drive-thru voting. The petition claims that drive-thru voting is an illegal expansion of curbside voting, the Austin American-Statesman reports.

https://twitter.com/i/events/1322617328119418880

Background

"The Texas Supreme Court drew alarmed attention Friday after directing Harris County to respond to a petition that seeks to invalidate more than 117,000 votes cast in drive-thru lanes. The court’s interest came as an unwelcome surprise to voting advocates and Harris County officials who were banking on a quick dismissal of the petition, filed by two GOP candidates and a Republican member of the Texas House." — Austin American-Statesman




"The petition — filed by state Rep. Steve Toth, R-The Woodlands, GOP activist Steven Hotze and two Republican candidates in Harris County — argued that drive-thru voting is an illegal expansion of curbside voting, which state law reserves for voters who have an illness or disability that could put them at risk if forced to enter a polling place." — Austin American-Statesman

 

[Dota]

This Texas shit is absolutely staggering right now. Here are a few facts just to start off with...

• The 20 most populous TX counties have ALL passed their 2016 presidential election total.
• Those 20 counties represent represent 71% of eligible TX voters.
• Half of those counties have over 60% voter turnout. Collin County leading with 69% turnout and and Williamson County at 68%

And all these turnout numbers are BEFORE ELECTION DAY.
If they match the election day turnout total then 12 of those counties will be over 70% turnout

My 10-30-2020 forecast snapshot.

Trump: 5,703,240 *
Biden: 5,621,998

Total votes: 11,325,238

Vote Diff: 81,242

Now those numbers are based on the Beto line with the vote frozen at that point (early voting total + election day turnout 2016). One thing that's guaranteed is the Beto line will move but by how much? 18 of 20 counties voted more blue from the 2016 presidental election to the 2018 senate race (Hidalgo and Cameron county, bordering Demoncratic counties on the Mexican border, moved more Republican but still voted over 62% democratic). Beto flipped 4 of those counties red to blue (Tarrant, Hays, Williamson, Nueces). Collin and Denton are potential flip counties for 2020 using the Beto numbers. Here were the Demcratic/Republic shifts of those 20 counties from 2016 to 2018.

1. Harris (+4.0 Dem)	5. Travis (+8.5 Dem)	9. Fort Bend (+4.4 Dem)	13. Galveston (+4.1 Dem)	17. Neuces (+3.3 Dem)
2. Dallas (+5.9 Dem)	6. Collin (+7.9 Dem)	10. Hidalgo (+2.8 Rep)	14. Brazoria (+4.8 Dem)	18. Lubbock (+6.7 Dem)
3. Tarrant (+6.8 Dem)	7. Denton (+8.4 Dem)	11. Williamson (+9.6 Dem)	15. Cameron (+4.7 Rep)	19. Hays (+11.1 Dem)
4. Bexar (+5.7 Dem)	8. El Paso (+5.9 Dem)	12. Montgomery (+4.7 Dem)	16. Bell (+4.9 Dem)	20. Mclennan (+3.8 Dem)

I'm scared to say it will grow by those percentages again from 2018 to 2020 so I'll use a quarter of that to show what the total vote would look like.


Trump: 5,684,031 *
Biden: 5,641,207

Total votes: 11,325,238

Vote Diff: 42,824

Literally every vote counts. What's hard to read is the percentage of those voters who are 1st time voters or who didn't vote in 2016. Also what the data doesn't tell is racial breakout and party affiliation of the vote casted. The question then becomes how much more blue can the top 5 counties become?

Top 5 counties +3% + Beto's percentage) + 1% difference of top 20 counties...

Trump: 5,682,778 *
Biden: 5,642,460

Total votes: 11,325,238

Vote Diff: 40,318

I hope I'm so fucking wrong on this.

 

[rude_dog]

Shit, you're right.. https://scnow.com/news/local/sc-man...cle_f7630b5a-9f06-52f1-a1bd-a114f82070c0.html

COLUMBIA -- The South Carolina Law Enforcement Division (SLED) has arrested an Anderson County man accused of making illegal political calls involving six House District races in South Carolina.
Robert Charles Cahaly, 41, of 112 Shannon Drive, Pendleton is charged with six counts of Automatically Dialed Announcing Device violations.

Cahaly turned himself in to SLED agents Wednesday morning.
According to SLED arrest warrants, Cahaly is accused of paying for and disseminating automated telephone calls (“Robo-Calls”) from an Automatically Dialed Answering Device (ADAD) on September 23, 2010.


These calls were political in nature and were allegedly made to potential South Carolina voters without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of S.C. Code 16-17-446.
SLED has determined that these illegal calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies which is also owned by Cahaly.

The republican political machine consists of 2 groups, the true believers (race soldiers) and the grifters. The free-marketeers were never that big a part and have been pushed out. The base is what it's always been, white-supremacists.

 

[ugk]

 

[Rembrandt Brown]

"When all votes are counted" is a big caveat.

But an election night call seems likely if this forecast comes to fruition.



But maybe it should be "if" rather than "when."

 

[sammyjax]

White folks: that's what all y'all do

 

[4 Dimensional]

White folks: that what all y'all do

And run fast.

 

[ugk]

 

[Dota]

Texas Republicans ask federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting

On Friday, Texas Republicans petitioned a federal court to reject over 100,000 ballots cast through curbside voting in Harris County, Texas. These efforts follow an October 22 decision by the Texas Supreme Court denying a GOP bid to shut down curbside voting — also know as drive-thru voting. The petition claims that drive-thru voting is an illegal expansion of curbside voting, the Austin American-Statesman reports.

https://twitter.com/i/events/1322617328119418880

Background

"The Texas Supreme Court drew alarmed attention Friday after directing Harris County to respond to a petition that seeks to invalidate more than 117,000 votes cast in drive-thru lanes. The court’s interest came as an unwelcome surprise to voting advocates and Harris County officials who were banking on a quick dismissal of the petition, filed by two GOP candidates and a Republican member of the Texas House." — Austin American-Statesman




"The petition — filed by state Rep. Steve Toth, R-The Woodlands, GOP activist Steven Hotze and two Republican candidates in Harris County — argued that drive-thru voting is an illegal expansion of curbside voting, which state law reserves for voters who have an illness or disability that could put them at risk if forced to enter a polling place." — Austin American-Statesman

 

[sinsay]

That's a very well respected poll...and damn that's an incredibly dramatic shift in a month.

 

[cashwhisperer]

 

[rude_dog]

That's a very well respected poll...and damn that's an incredibly dramatic shift in a month.

I honestly didn’t even think Iowa was in play for Biden. Not sure was it ever a good sign.

 

[Spectrum]

Both this and the Wisconsin +17 for Biden can't be true. One or both of them missed.

Also, there is no way there was a 22 point shift in Independents in one month because that hasn't shown up anywhere else.

then look the district data. It's a miss

 

[Spectrum]

This Texas shit is absolutely staggering right now. Here are a few facts just to start off with...

• The 20 most populous TX counties have ALL passed their 2016 presidential election total.
• Those 20 counties represent represent 71% of eligible TX voters.
• Half of those counties have over 60% voter turnout. Collin County leading with 69% turnout and and Williamson County at 68%

And all these turnout numbers are BEFORE ELECTION DAY.
If they match the election day turnout total then 12 of those counties will be over 70% turnout

My 10-30-2020 forecast snapshot.

Trump: 5,703,240 *
Biden: 5,621,998

Total votes: 11,325,238

Vote Diff: 81,242

Now those numbers are based on the Beto line with the vote frozen at that point (early voting total + election day turnout 2016). One thing that's guaranteed is the Beto line will move but by how much? 18 of 20 counties voted more blue from the 2016 presidental election to the 2018 senate race (Hidalgo and Cameron county, bordering Demoncratic counties on the Mexican border, moved more Republican but still voted over 62% democratic). Beto flipped 4 of those counties red to blue (Tarrant, Hays, Williamson, Nueces). Collin and Denton are potential flip counties for 2020 using the Beto numbers. Here were the Demcratic/Republic shifts of those 20 counties from 2016 to 2018.

1. Harris (+4.0 Dem)	5. Travis (+8.5 Dem)	9. Fort Bend (+4.4 Dem)	13. Galveston (+4.1 Dem)	17. Neuces (+3.3 Dem)
2. Dallas (+5.9 Dem)	6. Collin (+7.9 Dem)	10. Hidalgo (+2.8 Rep)	14. Brazoria (+4.8 Dem)	18. Lubbock (+6.7 Dem)
3. Tarrant (+6.8 Dem)	7. Denton (+8.4 Dem)	11. Williamson (+9.6 Dem)	15. Cameron (+4.7 Rep)	19. Hays (+11.1 Dem)
4. Bexar (+5.7 Dem)	8. El Paso (+5.9 Dem)	12. Montgomery (+4.7 Dem)	16. Bell (+4.9 Dem)	20. Mclennan (+3.8 Dem)

I'm scared to say it will grow by those percentages again from 2018 to 2020 so I'll use a quarter of that to show what the total vote would look like.



Trump: 5,684,031 *
Biden: 5,641,207

Total votes: 11,325,238

Vote Diff: 42,824

Literally every vote counts. What's hard to read is the percentage of those voters who are 1st time voters or who didn't vote in 2016. Also what the data doesn't tell is racial breakout and party affiliation of the vote casted. The question then becomes how much more blue can the top 5 counties become?

Top 5 counties +3% + Beto's percentage) + 1% difference of top 20 counties...

Trump: 5,682,778 *
Biden: 5,642,460

Total votes: 11,325,238

Vote Diff: 40,318

I hope I'm so fucking wrong on this.

A state going from worst to first in voter turnout would be bananas. Texas literally ranked last in voter turnout in 2016. I'd be sick if Biden lost texas
by only 40,000 votes BUT that would likely mean the Dems would take over the State House

 

[bgbtylvr]

Broward Democrats will easily surpass 80% turnout.. If those fucking slackers in Miami show up Biden will easily carry the state

Hopefully. Lot of self-hating Hispanics down there so blacks need to show up this time. Florida would end it all.

 

[TIMEISMONEY]

Hopefully. Lot of self-hating Hispanics down there so blacks need to show up this time. Florida would end it all.

Miami will fuck us because of the dumb cubans who vote 75% Rethugs all the time

 

[Spectrum]

Hopefully. Lot of self-hating Hispanics down there so blacks need to show up this time. Florida would end it all.

I'd be shocked if Biden wins Florida. if he does, it will be because seniors defected in a huge way from Trump and would likely mean a nationwide wipeout. But the demographics for Trump there are good... large rural areas, uneducated population, right-leaning Hispanics (those damn Cubans), etc... I have FL in Trump's bucket, but we could all go to sleep early if Biden wins FL.

 

[totto]

Hopefully. Lot of self-hating Hispanics down there so blacks need to show up this time. Florida would end it all.

That's party affiliation doesn't show who they voted for, Florida got a lot of angry people.

Remember BW voted for DeSantis in 16 by like 15% or something like that.

This state ain't what people think.

 

[totto]

I'd be shocked if Biden wins Florida. if he does, it will be because seniors defected in a huge way from Trump and would likely mean a nationwide wipeout. But the demographics for Trump there are good... large rural areas, uneducated population, right-leaning Hispanics (those damn Cubans), etc... I have FL in Trump's bucket, but we could all go to sleep early if Biden wins FL.

Lower-income white people, Cubans are going for Trump

If Trump gets 15% BM it's over in Florida.

I expect Trump to win Florida also, I don't think Florida will turn blue, too much fear down here.

 

[bgbtylvr]

I'd be shocked if Biden wins Florida. if he does, it will be because seniors defected in a huge way from Trump and would likely mean a nationwide wipeout. But the demographics for Trump there are good... large rural areas, uneducated population, right-leaning Hispanics (those damn Cubans), etc... I have FL in Trump's bucket, but we could all go to sleep early if Biden wins FL.

Facts. My Puerto Rican smash in West palm beach said the Latinos are all about Trump, her siblings included.

 

[zod16]

Lower-income white people, Cubans are going for Trump

If Trump gets 15% BM it's over in Florida.

I expect Trump to win Florida also, I don't think Florida will turn blue, too much fear down here.

That is what is so frustrating to me about the democrats. You are never going to get cac Latinos so stop spending the time/energy/money. A 10-15% increase in turnout in Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Detroit seals the election so why not focus on that ?

 

[darth frosty]

I expect Trump to win Florida also, I don't think Florida will turn blue, too much fear down here.

Would you mind explaining/expounding on the nature of the 'fear' you speak of down there?




Thanks

 

[havelcok]

 

[4 Dimensional]

Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016

To borrow from Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, “I’ve seen enough.” No, I don’t know who’s going to win the election. According to our forecast, Presiden…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Spectrum]

That is what is so frustrating to me about the democrats. You are never going to get cac Latinos so stop spending the time/energy/money. A 10-15% increase in turnout in Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Detroit seals the election so why not focus on that ?

Get the base out. That's the game.

 

[cashwhisperer]

538 at this point in past elections


2008: Obama 95.7% McCain 4.3%

2012: Obama 90.9% Romney 9.1%

2016: Clinton 64.6% Trump 35.4%

2020: Biden 90% Trump 10%

 

[Spectrum]

Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016

To borrow from Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, “I’ve seen enough.” No, I don’t know who’s going to win the election. According to our forecast, Presiden…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[cashwhisperer]

538 - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Oct 12 - Joe 86/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote.
Oct 13 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% popular vote
Oct 14 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote
Oct 16 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% of the popular vote
Oct 17 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.6% of the popular vote
Oct 18 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.6% of the popular vote
Oct 19 - Joe 88/100 chance of winning, 348 EVs, 53.6% of popular vote.
Oct 20 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote.
Oct 21 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote
Oct 22 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote.
Oct 23 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote.
Oct 24 - Joe 86/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 25 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 26 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 344 EVs, 53.3% of popular vote
Oct 27 - Joe 88/100 chance of winning, 344 EVs, 53.3% of popular vote
Oct 28 - Joe 88/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote
Oct 29 - Joe 89/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote
Oct 30 - Joe 90/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote
October 31 - Joe 90/100 chance of winning, 348 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote

Essentially rock steady for 20 days - a nice little recent tick is holding- Joe has 90 blue balls!

Another important number - Trump approve today is 44, disapprove 53 - 9% difference

Sam Wang Princeton - https://election.princeton.edu/

Oct 12 - Joe metamargin +6.3, estimate 369 EVs.
Oct 13 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 359 EVs
Oct 14 - Joe metamargin +6.0, est 358 EVs
Oct 15 - Joe metamargin +6.1, est 357 EVs
Oct 16 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 351 EVs
Oct 17 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 353 EVs
Oct 18 - Joe metamargin +5.8, est 356 EVs
Oct 19 - Joe metamargin +5.7, est 351 EVs
Oct 20 - Joe metamargin +5.4, est 356 EVs
Oct 21 - Joe metamargin +5.4, est 357 EVs
Oct 22 - Joe metamargin +5.6, est 362 EVs
Oct 23 - Joe metamargin +5.5, est 358 EVs
Oct 24 - Joe metamargin +5.5, est 357 EVs
Oct 25 - Joe metamargin +5.4, 360 EVs
Oct 26 - Joe metamargin +5.6, 354 EVs
Oct 27 - Joe metamargin +5.9, 356 EVs
Oct 28 - Joe metamargin +5.8, 350 EVs
Oct 29 - Joe metamargin +5.8, 356 EVs
Oct 30 - Joe metamargin +5.7, 353 EVs
today - Oct 31 - Joe metamargin +5.6, 352 EVs

essentially rock steady for 20 days, with just some bobbling about

The Economist - https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

Oct 12 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, currently at 54.2% of popular vote
Oct 13 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, currently at 54.3% of popular vote.
Oct 14 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54.3% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54% of popular vote.
Oct 16 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 17 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 18 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 19 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
Oct 20 - Joe 93/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 21 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
Oct 22 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 54% of the popular vote
Oct 23 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54.1% of the popular vote
Oct 24 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 340 EVs, 53.9% of the popular vote
Oct 25 - Joe 94/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.5% of the popular vote
Oct 26 - Joe 95/100 chance of winning, 352 EVs, 54.5% of the popular vote
Oct 27 - Joe 96/100 chance of winning, 356 EVs, 54.4% of the popular vote
Oct 28 - Joe 96/100 chance of winning, 356 EVs, 54.4% of the popular vote
Oct 29 - Joe 95/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 30 - Joe 96/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
today - Oct 31 - Joe 96/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.4% of the popular vote

election day estimate Joe 54.3%

Steady, and holding, on day 20.

For the 20th day in a row, no significant sign at all of race tightening; in fact, teeny signs of improvement.

The current electoral vote totals from the three sites are 348, 353 and 350. Very consistent - average of 350.

Bonus addition - where the election was in 2016 on 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

3 days before the election in 2016 was Nov 6. Hillary was at 65% chance, 291 EVs, 48 to 45 percent popular vote, 3 point separation - and this was 9 days after the Comey letter surfaced - the full effect is showing.. Joe has 59 more EVs, 25 percent higher chance, and 53 vs 48 percent popular vote - 5 point separation, with Joe well over 50 percent - something Hillary never reached.

Economist key state margins currently are PA +6, FL +3, WI +8, MI +8, NC +2, MN +9, AZ +3, NV +6, NH +9, Iowa -1, GA +1, OH -1 and TX -3.

 

[Spectrum]

538 at this point in past elections


2008: Obama 95.7% McCain 4.3%

2012: Obama 90.9% Romney 9.1%

2016: Clinton 64.6% Trump 35.4%

2020: Biden 90% Trump 10%

Trump is polling worse against Biden than he did against Hillary in EVERY SINGLE BATTLEGROUND STATE and he barely won last time by 70,000 votes. I just don't see a path for Trump and considering how many people have already voted, nothing can really change between now and election day. I think Dems have PTSD from the last election, but this thing probably won't be close. It might look closer on election night but remember how the midterms were... after all the votes were counted it was a blowout. I think by the end of next week it will be clear that we had another blue wave.

 

[Dark19]

#that might be the push that gives him flroida....#and flips texas

 

[ugk]

Would you mind explaining/expounding on the nature of the 'fear' you speak of down there?




Thanks

You got a bunch of white Cubans, and other Latinos from South America who are scared of the word socialism because of how socialist governments have historically some people in the past. (Cuba, Venezuela, and others). So socialism becomes an effective boogeyman in swaying these voters.

It's ironic because South Florida has one of the highest rates of Medicare and Obamacare enrollees in the entire country. If Republicans had their way, they would dismantle the welfare state these Hispanics depend on.

 

[OutlawR.O.C.]

Trump is polling worse against Biden than he did against Hillary in EVERY SINGLE BATTLEGROUND STATE and he barely won last time by 70,000 votes. I just don't see a path for Trump and considering how many people have already voted, nothing can really change between now and election day. I think Dems have PTSD from the last election, but this thing probably won't be close. It might look closer on election night but remember how the midterms were... after all the votes were counted it was a blowout. I think by the end of next week it will be clear that we had another blue wave.

I've had PTSD since 2004 (Bush vs. Kerry) when I was certain of the outcome and at that point learned the hard way to never underestimate the ignorance and stupidity of some in this country.

 

[Spectrum]

I've had PTSD since 2004 (Bush vs. Kerry) when I was certain of the outcome and at that point learned the hard way to never underestimate the ignorance and stupidity of some in this country.

It took me long enough to fully get that you gotta wait until it's over anytime you're dealing with white folks man.... so although all the data looks good, there too many whites (federal judges, supreme court, white voters) involved in this process for me to be fully confident.

 

[4 Dimensional]

Trump is polling worse against Biden than he did against Hillary in EVERY SINGLE BATTLEGROUND STATE and he barely won last time by 70,000 votes. I just don't see a path for Trump and considering how many people have already voted, nothing can really change between now and election day. I think Dems have PTSD from the last election, but this thing probably won't be close. It might look closer on election night but remember how the midterms were... after all the votes were counted it was a blowout. I think by the end of next week it will be clear that we had another blue wave.

The margin of error chart from that 538 article was butter.

Even with the same margin of error from 2016, Biden wins convincingly.