I thought for sure Dallas would end up in the play-in with New Orleans or OKC falling out.
Now New Orleans is three games up on them with four to play so that is not realistic. They're one game behind OKC:
- Thunder, 38-40- Four games left- vs Phoenix, at Golden State, at Utah, vs Memphis
- Mavs, 37-41- Four games left- at Atlanta, vs Sacramento, vs Chicago, vs San Antonio
That looks like a decidedly easier schedule for Dallas! 3/4 at home. Atlanta is 2.5 back of Miami at #8 so they and Chicago are fighting for position in 8-10 in the East but Sacramento is likely locked into 3rd and San Antonio is terrible. Meanwhile OKC has two title contenders jockeying for position 4-6 coming up on the schedule before possibly facing two teams with nothing to play for.
OKC controls their own destiny-- We might know who the top 10 for the West will be after they play Golden State on Tuesday. I was tempted to still pick Dallas with those schedules but the Thunder also own the tiebreaker over the Mavs! So the smart money has to be on OKC.