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*Official Miami Heat 2010 Season Thread*

ReactQ

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How great can Heat and Lakers be?

By John Hollinger

OK, it's only five games.

But after five games, the last four of which were blowout victories, the Miami Heat seem poised to live up to our lofty expectations. After the opening-night stumble in Boston, Miami won four straight by a combined 91 points, and that's with a still-rough-around-the-edges offensive chemistry and Dwyane Wade recovering from a hamstring injury.

The Heat aren't the only team to sport an impressive start, of course. The Lakers are unbeaten after Tuesday night's rout of Memphis, as are the Hawks and Hornets. (Quick side rant: Did Lionel Hollins watch the Finals last season? Kobe Bryant scored 23 points on nine shots in the first half against Grizzlies defenders not named Tony Allen. Allen guarded Kobe for one possession -- yes, just one -- and forced a wild miss that barely grazed the rim.)

Nonetheless, nobody was saying before the season that the Hawks or the Hornets might win 72 games. That's because they won't. And although L.A.'s goose egg in the loss column keeps it ahead of Miami in the standings at the moment, we've already seen what this outfit can do. Win the championship? Perhaps. Win 72? Not bloody likely.

Miami, on the other hand, conjures up a wide range of possibilities, precisely because we haven't seen the limits on what the James-Wade-Bosh partnership can accomplish. We've been wondering all summer if this will be one of the greatest teams of all time or just another nice team. After five games, we're wondering a lot about the former and not so much about the latter. That in itself is a minor accomplishment.

To rank with the all-time greats, obviously, this year's Heat would need to win the championship. But that won't be nearly enough; it's just the minimum threshold. Here are some of the regular-season standards the Heat would need to threaten or exceed, and how they're faring relative to those mile-high standards:

1. Can they win 72?

The Heat are 4-1 at the moment, which puts them on pace to win 66 games for a full season using the avowedly unscientific "if they keep up this pace" method.

Here's a better stab at it: Using our Playoff Odds system that plays out every game for the rest of the season (it's launching soon, don't worry), the Heat project to finish with a win total in the mid-60s. It gives them only an 8.3 percent chance of winning 70 games, a 3.2 percent chance of winning 72, and just a 1.8 percent chance of exceeding 72.

But this may be too pessimistic. Early in the season, the Playoff Odds formula has a significant "regression to the mean" component. In other words, it assumes that a team can't win at the same red-hot pace all season (or lose all of its games, in the case of the Clippers). Ninety-nine percent of the time this makes complete sense -- we don't expect Atlanta or New Orleans to go 82-0 just because they've won a few games to start the year. Even teams that have lengthy early-season success -- for example, Boston's 27-2 start two years ago -- normally cool off considerably.

However, if the Heat happen to be every bit as good as they've shown in the first five games, regressing to the mean treats them too harshly. Based purely on point differential, they're on pace for about a 78-win season using a formula known as the Pythagorean method.

Still, to have a realistic shot at 72 or more wins, I think the Heat will have to stay well ahead of record pace, because they are likely to let off the gas pedal in the final few weeks of the season if they've already clinched the East's top seed. For that reason, I share the Playoff Odds' pessimism, even if my doubts aren't quite as extreme.

2. Can they match the Bulls' best-on-both-ends feat?

The 1995-96 Bulls not only won 72 games, they also were the only team in history to rank No. 1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Coming into the season, one would have thought Miami's biggest challenge in trying to match this feat would be on the defensive end, where teams like Boston and Orlando would present a stiff challenge to claiming the top overall spot. But through five games, Miami's defense has gone gangbusters, with a league-best 87.9 defensive efficiency mark.

It's the offense that's been less sensational. Miami is only fifth on the offensive end at 109.1, although that has come against tough defensive opposition -- in addition to facing the aforementioned Celtics and Magic, the Heat have yet to face a bottom-10 defense. Based on current stats, they won't do so until Game 11 against Phoenix on Nov. 17.

Additionally, the offense would likely be more threatened by one item that's largely out of Miami's control -- injuries. The Heat offense was a train wreck in the opener with Wade returning from a hamstring injury, and seemed the same way in the preseason while Wade sat out. As long as the three stars stay healthy, the top spot in offensive efficiency is likely within reach, but if any of the trio misses extended time, it's likely that at least one other team will surpass them.

3. Can they be the best defensive team of all time?

Of all the items on this list, this one appears to be the most realistic for Miami to achieve. Since the league began tracking turnovers in 1973-74, the top defensive efficiency mark relative to the league belongs to the 2003-04 San Antonio Spurs. That squad posted a 92.3 defensive efficiency mark in a league in which the average was 100.8, making them 8.5 points better than the norm.

(Irony alert: That Spurs team did not win the championship, although four other Spurs teams did. In fact, of the top four all-time defenses, the only one to win it all was the 2007-08 Celtics. On the other hand, that still gives the defenses one more championship than the top four offenses.)

Thus far, the 2010-11 Heat are blowing that mark out of the water. Miami's league-leading 87.9 defensive efficiency is a whopping 14.8 points better than the current league average of 102.7. While we can expect this to even out for a number of reasons -- I doubt, for instance, that their opponents will continue to shoot just 44.0 percent on 2-pointers or brick quite so many free throws -- the Heat have considerable breathing room relative to the record and appear to have committed to dominating at the defensive end of the floor.

4. Can they set the mark for greatest victory margin?

The 1971-72 Lakers and the 1995-96 Bulls both outscored the opposition by 12.3 points per game. Miami right now is at a league-best plus-16.6 … but again, it's early. It's not uncommon for teams to be on a record pace for several weeks before cooling off, especially if they're given a favorable early schedule -- which, with 13 of the first 21 games at home, the Heat will have in their favor until the second week in December.

This season's Lakers, at plus-13.3 after four games, also merit mentioning here. They, too, have a very favorable early slate, with 12 of the first 21 at home and most of the opposition appearing to be lottery fodder. Like the Heat, however, they will get a dose of reality with a couple of long cross-country road trips beginning the second week in December.
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:dunno:
 
Spectrum

Spectrum

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ReactQ said:
:dunno:
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they wont win 72 and they also wont nearly be the best defensive team of all time... but that margin of victory thing is going to be in play because they are going to blow a lot of teams out this year....
 
C

chemist

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Bosh is so fuckin' soft. Z-Bo bitched him out of a rebound and instead of Bosh committing the hard foul he just watches him lay the ball up.
 
Chitownheadbusa

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clayizaiken said:
Heat about to lose to the Grizzlies...
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And they had to play both Bosh and Lebron almost the entire 48 to get to that point

yeah......theyre a long way from a title.


edit:
the heat just tied it.

Bosh for a 3.
lucky ass long three like Taj Gibson had last night.
Shout out to butter fingers Rudy Gay


Edit again:
Im sorry for calling you butter fingers Mr "Game winning shot over Lebron" Rudy Gay!

Did anyone see him mean mug the entire Heat Bench after he hit the shot?
:lol:
Hilarious!
 
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sean69

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:lol: Zach Randolf is beasting in the paint. Bosh Spice soft ass scared to brake a nail. :lol: The Heat suck iguana balls when they're up against teams with inside presence and decent PG's.

by the way ... da fuck is Wade? :confused:
 
sean69

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kids%20laughing.jpg
 
Blu Diablo

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Was they sayin last night or a coupla nights back that Wade had/has the flu or some shit?

BTW, RJD thanks for bringing this thread back as opposed to Dayne making a new thread for every game. Preciate that fam :cool:
 
C

chemist

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A lot of dudes from Team USA have been ballin' this year. It wasn't the Olympics but I think they kind of felt like the B-team since no guys from 2008 were there yet they still won it all.
 
sean69

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naijachief said:
Miami cant beat Memphis? :smh:
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Miami can't beat any team with legit inside presence or a PG. Bosh Spice is soft and Aroyo couldn't guard a brick wall if his life depended on it. And 3 point shooting can only get u so far. The team has the balance of a 1 legged Romanian leper. :lol:
 
sean69

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BeatDownRecords said:
Kind of your soft baked ass to show up but won't show up when your team loses huh especially when they didn't even have Durant nor Green...

Oh yeah Westbrook baked Rondo's bitch ass.

http://www.bgol.us/board/showthread.php?p=9116820#post9116820

:lol::lol::lol:
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:lol: yea we lost like a bunch of bums because of lack-luster effort in the first Q. But don't sweat it, a Celtics loss is like 7 Miami diasters. :lol: And I see y'all nut-huggers made a thread about it too :lol: Mybad, couldn't make it, I had a tray of bbq wings and a cold one at the Hooters on W 56th with my name on it :lol:

But seriously, who do u think will catch the largest sea bass in may, Westbrook or Durant? :roflmao:
 
H

hlfbakd05

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sean69 said:
Miami can't beat any team with legit inside presence or a PG. Bosh Spice is soft and Aroyo couldn't guard a brick wall if his life depended on it. And 3 point shooting can only get u so far. The team has the balance of a 1 legged Romanian leper. :lol:
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Didn't they blowout Orlando??? Nelson/Howard???
 
T

TJervey

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hlfbakd05 said:
Didn't they blowout Orlando??? Nelson/Howard???
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They won that one game, but they are so inconsistent its horrible. Example, they can't beat Boston to save their lives, but, the Thunder beat Boston last night without Durant?!?!? Tonight, Haslem got hurt, and the thing is, outside of the Top 4, Miami is fucking paper thin, and D Wade or Bosh have never been the most durable Players around, so quite frankly, Miami MAY be a 60 win team, LeBron will become disenchanted, and I don't see them staying together for the duration of the contracts they just signed. They definitely won't win a championship this year, and they have wrapped SO MUCH money into the Big 2.5 (fuck coat tail riding B Level ass Bosh), they don't have enough cap room, money to bring in the type of quality they need to get to the next level, so it's what you see is what you get. The only thing they can hope is that Boston gets old quick, Kobe and the rest of his posse start to slow down a little bit, etc. But, the rest of the league will continue to improve so it's not a given they will evolve into a perennial championship team... Damn shame too, shit just might blow up in their faces... :smh:
 
D24OHA

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TJervey said:
They won that one game, but they are so inconsistent its horrible. Example, they can't beat Boston to save their lives, but, the Thunder beat Boston last night without Durant?!?!? Tonight, Haslem got hurt, and the thing is, outside of the Top 4, Miami is fucking paper thin, and D Wade or Bosh have never been the most durable Players around, so quite frankly, Miami MAY be a 60 win team, LeBron will become disenchanted, and I don't see them staying together for the duration of the contracts they just signed. They definitely won't win a championship this year, and they have wrapped SO MUCH money into the Big 2.5 (fuck coat tail riding B Level ass Bosh), they don't have enough cap room, money to bring in the type of quality they need to get to the next level, so it's what you see is what you get. The only thing they can hope is that Boston gets old quick, Kobe and the rest of his posse start to slow down a little bit, etc. But, the rest of the league will continue to improve so it's not a given they will evolve into a perennial championship team... Damn shame too, shit just might blow up in their faces... :smh:
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there is a lot of truth in this ^^

i was a d Wade an bron fan at one point and their attitudes/ego will not stand for 7 seasons of this. especially lebron dude is so thirsty for a ring so he can start catchin up to Kobe an MJ
 

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