The top of the East
Assuming Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Boston and Toronto all advance, I'm not sure there will have ever been a playoff round with more potential to swing superstar free agency than the conference semifinals in the East. Two of these four must lose. Lose badly, and eyes will wander.
• Even the placid Bucks have four starters entering free agency. Keeping all of them might vault Milwaukee into the luxury tax. Are the Bucks willing to do that if they lose in the second round? How would
Giannis Antetokounmpo -- up for a supermax after next season -- react if Milwaukee were to let the wrong person walk?
Amid trade mania, the Bucks have quietly coalesced into a juggernaut. They know who they are. They have found the sweet spot where guys play with freedom and confidence but don't break from the team construct. They can shapeshift into any lineup type. They are No. 4 in offense and No. 1 in defense, with the scoring margin of a champion. Coaches and players say privately that they feel something special brewing -- something some of them have never felt.
Adding
Nikola Mirotic makes them even more malleable. (Outbidding the Sixers, who offered two second-round picks, per sources, probably made it sweeter. The Sixers and Pelicans also discussed the general framework of a Mirotic-Markelle Fultz swap before Philadelphia acquired Tobias Harris, sources say. It is unclear how far those talks would have advanced otherwise.) He unlocks more Giannis-at-center lineups, and can even jostle with some centers himself to spare Antetokounmpo wear and tear.
• The other three teams have four combined max-level free agents in
Jimmy Butler,
Tobias Harris,
Kyrie Irving, and
Kawhi Leonard. The last two -- along with
Anthony Davis and
Kevin Durant -- will determine the league's balance of power.
The vibes out of Toronto over the past six weeks have been just a little off. The relationship between
Kyle Lowry and Masai Ujiri is clearly not hunky-dory. It never has been. Lowry misses
DeMar DeRozan. I'm not sure any of that bleeds onto the floor. Lowry will play his game when it matters. But back injuries and Leonard's load management have short-circuited Toronto's chances to build chemistry.
Marc Gasol is an undeniable upgrade, but he further unsettles their rotation.
(Charlotte came close to acquiring Gasol before some last-minute haggling, per league sources. The Hornets had a lottery-protected first-round pick ready for most of this week, sources say. Losing Gasol hurts, but they get to keep that pick, and the East is so bad they might limp into the playoffs anyway. Just pray for
Kemba Walker, who has zero help.)
Gasol brings a high-IQ game that can calm Toronto's offense in crunch time of playoff games. Toronto got him without sacrificing a first-round pick, or any essential part of their future. (
Delon Wright could do well in Memphis, but he was a luxury for Toronto. The return beyond that is uninspiring for Memphis considering Gasol is a franchise icon. The Grizzlies in the end may have moved a year late.) He is one of the league's very best one-on-one post defenders -- an ideal antidote to
Joel Embiid. He can drag Embiid away from the rim on the other end.
But does Gasol supplant
Serge Ibaka as Toronto's full-time starting center? The Raptors have thrived with Ibaka there. He can play some alongside Gasol, but it might be too late to shift him back to power forward in the starting lineup. Doing that would slide
Pascal Siakam to the wing, and
Danny Green to the bench. Siakam can play any nominal position, but the Siakam-Ibaka-Gasol trio is a little antiquated. Toronto has gotten where it is by being rangy and fast, heavy with switchy wings. Some rivals are hoping they trade speed for size.
The right answer might be starting Gasol and Siakam, and I would guess that is where they land. Can they sell that to Ibaka?
Maybe the Raptors can toggle between Gasol and Ibaka depending on matchups, as they did with Ibaka and
Jonas Valanciunas. Can they sell that to Gasol? Regardless, Toronto is all-in.
• Philly is too, having traded out of its war chest for Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris. (They still have a bundle of extra second-rounders coming to them.) The Clippers did well to snare two first-rounders for Harris on an expiring contract. Teams could not acquire first-round picks, even for good players, without swallowing bad money.
New Orleans wanted a first-rounder for Mirotic; it got four second-rounders instead -- strong return, still. Washington had one
Otto Porter Jr. deal on the table that would have brought back a low first-rounder, but only if it took on money extending beyond this season, sources say. The Nets and Grizzlies briefly discussed a swap of
Allen Crabbe -- earning $19 million next season -- and Denver's first-rounder for the
Garrett Temple/
JaMychal Green pairing, sources say. Memphis, facing tax concerns, instead flipped those two for
Avery Bradley's semi-expiring deal -- and no picks.
Given that it took zero first-round picks to get Mirotic, Gasol, Porter and
Harrison Barnes, the Sixers probably overpaid for Harris. The price telegraphs that they view Harris as more than a rental. He is better than those other guys. Philly's new starting five is loaded. How wonderful to have Harris as your fourth-best player.
Big Fours are rare. The financial cost is enormous -- more than most teams can bear. Typical fourth starters don't handle the ball as much as Harris likes. He's a great shooter, and there are no diminishing returns on shooters. But there will be diminishing returns here, no matter how rigidly Philly staggers their five starters.
Golden State's Big Four works because one almost doesn't have to dribble (
Klay Thompson), and a second is content averaging six points per game if he gets to pass a lot (
Draymond Green). The fit in Philly will be trickier, and there is a lot riding on them figuring it out in short order. No matter what they say today, it is not a lock that they max out both Butler and Harris this summer. (Both are good bets, and maybe certainties, to get max contracts somewhere. There are just too many slots out there now.)
The playoffs will be pivotal.
• Boston did nothing, but it won the deadline by virtue of the Lakers and Pelicans doing nothing with Anthony Davis. The Celtics are 25-9 since their 10-10 start. Now all they have to do is perform well enough in the postseason to coax Irving into staying. That became an even taller order Thursday.
It's possible Boston has the lowest game-to-game ceiling of all four teams, though it's hard to tell until we've seen them all play a fair bit. But the Celtics feel like the team among this group with the lowest margin of error -- the one that needs to play every second at peak urgency.
what you think about this bro???
Kyle Kuzma had 37 thru 3 quarters last night and has dropped 41 earlier. Tatum is a better 3 point shooter but Kuz is a better overall scorer. And no way in hell is wack ass off the bench Brown wit his broke jumper better than all 3 of the young Lakers. Youre overrating Bostons players after what they did last year against Bron with no Kyrie. Since then none of them have performed at that level. Tatum is averaging less points and assists than even Ingram and is worse defensively.
; However I do feel Taytum has the best upside of all the players listed; Brown and Taytum have taken a step back this year though; I think thats a product of Kyrie and Hayward and playing time and Boston just being off; I think Brown has a solid upside as well though; Ball to me is what he is; I do not see his Jumper improving that much; but he is a solid defender; Rozier needs to play; they all need to play; Im not looking at career highs when Brown and Rozier dont play enough; If Rozier was on Orlando or Phoenix his career highs would be higher; But like I said you made very valid points....
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