this all makes sense.
i copped my own crib though
So when’s the housing bubble bursting?
- Thread starter Dr. Truth
- Start date
i copped my own crib though
Beverly Hills in Crisis as Judge Mandates New Affordable Housing: “People Are Furious”
Following a December Superior Court ruling, the affluent city finds itself entrenched in a battle over new developments that locals fear will change its trademark character.
www.hollywoodreporter.com
Exclusive: Typical home values by race, mapped
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Difference in the typical value of homes owned by Black and white people, by metro area
As of December 2023A map of the U.S. showing the difference in the typical value of homes owned by Black and white people, by metro area, as of December 2023. In general, homes owned by Black people are worth $291k, compared to $354k for those owned by white people, a -18% difference. Metro areas with a larger difference tend to be in the midwest and Rust Belt, while cities in the west were closer to parity. However, only one metro area, McAllen, Texas, saw homes owned by Black people being valued higher than those owned by white people.
Closer to equality →
Birmingham, Ala. Homes owned by Black people are worth 46% less than those owned by white people
Birmingham, Ala. Homes owned by Black people are worth 46% less than those owned by white people
Data: Zillow; Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals
The typical home value of Charlotte-area homes with Black owners is 18.2% less than homes with white owners, per data Zillow shared with Axios.
Why it matters: Homeownership remains the biggest driver of the wealth gap, per the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Zoom in: The typical value of Charlotte homes with Black owners is $312.6K, while the typical value for homes with white owners is $382K.
- This mirrors a national trend, per Zillow data exclusively shared with Axios.
- Nationally, the typical value of U.S. homes with Black owners ($291K) is 18% less than the typical value of homes with white owners ($354K).
- The appraiser workforce is majority white, and it's often difficult to report appraisal discrimination, though new policies are aimed at addressing both of those hurdles.
- The homeownership rate among white households in Mecklenburg County is 68%, compared to 43% for Black households, Axios' Alexis Clinton reported.
- A 2022 Zillow analysis of Housing and Mortgage Disclosure Act data found that Black homebuyers in North Carolina were twice as likely to be denied mortgages as white homebuyers, Axios' Michael Graff wrote.
Kathy Hilton is selling her Hamptons mansion for $15 million
Nestled on 2.7 acres, the opulent estate, owned by Paris Hilton's parents Rick and Kathy, features six bedrooms, 7.5 bathrooms, a lagoon-style gunite swimming pool and multiple terraces.
Maui fire survivors can’t stay in hotels forever. A protest demands dignified housing for all
Hawaii Democratic Gov. Josh Green explains an interim housing plan for those displaced survivors.
Since 2009 the U.S. has massively underbuilt single-family housing. General consensus is 5-7 million single-family homes underbuilt.
At the same time the baby boomers are staying in their homes a decade longer than previous generations.
80 Million millennials are in peak family formation years.
Oh and we have now see the largest one-year population increase in US history...
Could go on and on about home owners locked in place due to low fixed 30-year mortgages, NIMBY policies preventing development, build costs up significantly due to inflation and lack of trades professionals to adequately increase supply...
But I think you get my point. The housing affordability issue is not going to improve any time soon.
Model Miranda Kerr Is Selling Her Longtime Malibu Compound
Asking $4.5 million, the four-structure estate overlooks the Pacific Ocean and is where Kerr and her billionaire husband Evan Spiegel spent many summers.
robbreport.com
Malibu’s Only Robert Skinner-Designed Home Sells to a Prominent Video Game Exec
Javier Ferreira, the co-CEO of $5 billion mobile games maker Scopely, doled out $9 million for the modernist architect’s striking ocean-view residence.
robbreport.com
A Daughter of Uzbekistan’s Longtime President Just Sold Her $36 Million Beverly Hills Mansion
The off-market deal represents the most paid for a Los Angeles-area home so far this year.
robbreport.com
Rick and Kathy Hilton’s Longtime Hamptons Retreat Can Be Yours for $15 Million
The wealthy California socialites have used the New York outpost as a family vacation spot for over two decades.
robbreport.com
A Snazzy Modern L.A. Farmhouse Sells to a 30-Year-Old Entrepreneur for $23 Million
Originally listed for almost $2 million more, the Hidden Hills residence sold to the COO of a local family owned payments processing company at a big discount.
robbreport.com
A Hot Dog Mogul Is Serving Up This Oceanfront Florida Penthouse for $32.5 Million
Chicago restaurateur Dick Portillo worked with an investment team to remodel the Naples unit from top to bottom.
robbreport.com
NYC Condo Owners Are Losing Money Because of Trump Name
Values of Manhattan units have dropped since 2013, while buildings that removed his name saw prices rise.
www.thedailybeast.com
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According to Redfin, investors accounted for 26% of all lower-priced home sales last quarter — the highest level in that segment on record. Redfin defined low-priced homes as those falling within the bottom third of sale prices for a given area. Nearly half (46.5%) of total investor purchases in the last quarter were for affordable homes, and 69% were single-family homes.
Guess this guy has never heard of marriage? If you both make over 100k and no debt you can buy
I think his point was that within two years a single person went from being able to buy a house on their own to needing a spouse.
Our here most people could never afford a house on their own unless they made a good amount over 6 figures and had zero debt. Houses out here haven’t been less than 600k for 15 years .
Even if a home here was 500k not many people have 100k cash ready for the 20% down needed. Say you found a piece of shit 400k burned out house here you still need 80k for the down payment. Even putting half that down is a nice amount of money and with rates at 7% you’re looking at a $4000 payment easy
Housing Market Predictions For 2024: When Will Home Prices Be Affordable Again?
Robin Rothstein,
Caroline Basile
Forbes Advisor Staff, Editor
Reviewed By
Chris Jennings
Editor
Updated: Feb 15, 2024, 2:02pm
Editorial Note: We earn a commission from partner links on Forbes Advisor. Commissions do not affect our editors' opinions or evaluations.
Though mortgage rates are better now than they were in the fall, and experts are optimistic that rates will drop further in 2024, home affordability challenges aren’t going away anytime soon.
A perfect storm of still-high mortgage rates and home prices amid historically low housing stock continues to put homeownership out of reach for many—most notably first-time buyers—who remain pessimistic about being able to afford a home as we begin 2024.
Housing Market Forecast for 2024
2023 was a demoralizing year for many aspiring home shoppers. Mortgage rates and residential real estate prices surged, and average monthly mortgage payments hit record levels, creating a perfect storm of home unaffordability.However, 2024 could be a better year to purchase a home—at least for some.
“Despite persistent inventory challenges, we anticipate a busier spring home-buying season than 2023,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, in a press statement. However, he noted that home prices would likely continue to increase “at a steady pace.”
On the other hand, some experts forecast that housing market activity will remain tepid throughout 2024 due to the many homeowners who will remain “locked in” at low rates, which will keep a stranglehold on inventory and put upward pressure on home prices.
“[G]iven that approximately two-thirds of outstanding mortgages currently boast rates below 4%, a notable portion of existing homeowners may opt to postpone their buying and selling plans and wait for the potential for even lower rates before making decisions about their next residences,” said Jiayi Xu, an economist at Realtor.com, in an emailed statement.
In the meantime, most industry experts agree that the Federal Reserve is done with its rate-hiking campaign to lower inflation. Policymakers kept the federal funds rate unchanged for a fourth straight meeting on January 31 and previously signaled rate cuts are in store for 2024.
The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate financial institutions charge each other for overnight loans; it tends to indirectly influence mortgage rates.
Even with the potential rate cuts, real estate watchers expect home affordability challenges to persist, thanks to pent-up demand and low inventory bolstering home prices.
Consequently, chief economist at First American Financial Corporation Mark Fleming, predicts a “flat stretch” ahead. “If the 2020-2021 housing market was too hot, then the 2023 market was probably too cold, but 2024 won’t yet be just right,” Fleming said in his 2024 forecast.
Will the Housing Market Finally Recover in 2024?
For a housing recovery to occur, Gumbinger says several conditions must unfold.“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” Gumbinger says. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”
And, of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off—which finally seems to be coming to fruition, with rates declining toward the end of 2023 and holding below 7% so far in 2024.
But Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.
“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.
He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.
Nonetheless, Kuba Jewgieniew, CEO of Realty ONE Group, a real estate brokerage company, is optimistic about a recovery this year.
“[W]e’re definitely looking forward to a better housing market in 2024 as interest rates start to settle around 6% or even lower,” says Jewgieniew.
Housing Inventory Forecast for 2024
With many homeowners “locked in” at low interest rates or unwilling to sell due to high home prices, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for a while.“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.
Housing stock remains near historic lows—especially entry-level supply—which has propped up demand and sustained ultra-high home prices.
Still, some hopeful signs are re-emerging.
For one, home builder outlook, which had been on a downslide, is trending back up amid declining mortgage rates and better building conditions.
The most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which tracks builder sentiment, rose from 44 to 48 in February. A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.
At the same time, new single-family building permits managed to tick up slightly in December—the 11th consecutive monthly increase—according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Residential Real Estate Stats: Existing, New and Pending Home Sales
The housing market remained in a deep freeze in December, though some thawing could be on the horizon. Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales cooled in December, down 1% from the month before and 6.2% from a year prior. 2023 ended with existing-home sales plummeting to 4.09 million, a 28-year low, according to the latest monthly National Association of Realtors (NAR) data.At the same time, median home prices soared in 2023 to a record high of $389,800.
“The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report. “Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months.”
New Home Sales
Meanwhile, new homes continued to lure buyers frustrated with the lack of resale inventory. Sales of newly constructed single-family homes were up 8% in December from the month before and 4.4% annually, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.The median price for a new home in December was $413,000, narrowing the gap between existing and new home prices to $30,600.
| Month | Existing-Home Median Sale Price | New Home Median Sale Price | Price Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 2023 | $392,800 | $426,100 | $33,300 |
| October 2023 | $391,600 | $414,600 | $23,000 |
| November 2023 | $387,700 | $426,000 | $38,300 |
| December 2023 | $382,600 | $413,200 | $30,600 |
Pending Home Sales
Despite weak existing-home sales, pending sales data provided cause for optimism for a turnaround in 2024. The Pending Homes Sales Index jumped up 8.3% in December compared to the month before. Pending sales are an indicator of future existing-home sales.“The housing market is off to a good start this year, as consumers benefit from falling mortgage rates and stable home prices,” said Yun, in the report.
However, Yun noted that a meaningful increase in resale inventory will be pivotal to support the bump in demand that experts anticipate declining mortgage rates will stimulate.
Inventory of unsold resale homes dropped 11.5% to 1 million between November and December, leaving existing home stock at a scant 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace. Many experts say a balanced housing market has a four- to six-month supply.
Home Affordability Optimism in 2024 Rises (Tentatively) As Mortgage Rates Recede
With the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate declining more than a full percentage point off its 2023 high of 7.79%, prospective homeowners are hopeful that rates will continue to fall and provide some ease in the affordability crunch.For starters, monthly mortgage payments are down 14% from their record highs in October, with the median payment in December dropping to $2,361, finishing out the least affordable year on record for home buyers, according to Redfin.
Meanwhile, mortgage rate optimism shot up in the latest Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) in which a survey-high 31% of consumers said they expect mortgage rates to decline further.
And though consumer outlook on home affordability remains gloomy, signs of cautious optimism may be emerging, with 17% of consumers signaling in the December data that now is a good time to purchase a home, up from a survey record low of 14% the previous month.
Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024?
Despite some areas of the country experiencing monthly price declines, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.
Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.
“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.
“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.
Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.
Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.
“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.
Will Foreclosures Increase in 2024?
Despite foreclosure activity trending up nationally, experts generally don’t expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2024.“Foreclosure activity is still only at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels … and isn’t likely to be back to 2019 numbers until sometime in mid-to-late 2024,” says Sharga.
The biggest reasons for this, Sharga explains, are the strength of the economy—we’re still seeing low employment and steady wage growth—along with excellent loan quality.
Massive home price growth over the past few years in homeowner equity has also helped reduce foreclosures.
Sharga says that some 80% of today’s homeowners have more than 20% equity in their property. So, while there may be more foreclosure starts in 2024—due in part to Covid-era mortgage relief programs phasing out—foreclosure auctions and lender repossessions should remain below 2019 levels.
“Reflecting on 2023, we see the recent rise in foreclosure activity as a market correction rather than a cause for alarm,” said Rob Barber, CEO of property data provider Attom, in a report.
In December, foreclosure filings were down 6% from last month and 2% from a year ago, according to Attom. Lenders began the foreclosure process on 270,222 properties in 2023, which was 20% lower than in 2019.
When Will Be the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2024?
Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen next year, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.
“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”
Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.
“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”
Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.
Pro Tips for Buying in Today’s Real Estate Market
Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:- Move to a lower-priced housing market if you can switch jobs or work remotely
- Get all your ducks in a row in advance so you can act fast—review your financial situation, gather required documents, shop multiple lenders and strengthen your credit score
- Check prices and listings regularly to beat out the competition
- Know how much your monthly payment will be—complete with taxes—and how well that fits into your budget
Pro Tips for Selling in Today’s Real Estate Market
Divounguy has this expert advice for sellers:- Work with a real estate agent to get your pricing right, encourage buyer competition and sell faster
- Get your home in shape to sell sooner rather than later
- Set up your home’s online curb appeal
- Include a 3-D home virtual tour or an interactive floor plan in your listings for more page views and saves
What the latest inflation data suggests about Canada's housing market
Statistics Canada has released new data about how the economy started off the new year, saying the country's inflation rate has slowed and now sits at 2.9 per cent. One economist explains what's behind the decline.
I turned my Home Depot shed into a dream tiny home after 3 years of living in my car – it even has a guest bedroom
She has enough space for a guest bedroom and built-in closet
Alexa Cimino
Feb 17 2024
nypost.com
Sophie Hilaire has turned a Home Depot shed into the tiny home of her dreams
The home includes an office, dining room, living room, kitchen, bathroom, and two lofted bedrooms
The project took Sophie 18 months to complete
She has enough space for a guest bedroom and built-in closet
Alexa Cimino
Feb 17 2024
I turned my Home Depot shed into a tiny home after 3 years of living in my car
A WOMAN has gone viral for turning a shed into the home of her dreams after living out of a van for years. Sophie Hilaire, who documented her home conversion project on Instagram, posted a video of…
www.the-sun.com
I turned a Home Depot shed into a fully functioning home after living in a van for 3 years
Instagram creator Sophie Hilaire’s viral tour of her home, which is fashioned from a Home Depot shed, is nothing short of jaw-dropping.
nypost.com
Sophie Hilaire has turned a Home Depot shed into the tiny home of her dreams
The home includes an office, dining room, living room, kitchen, bathroom, and two lofted bedrooms
The project took Sophie 18 months to complete