So when’s the housing bubble bursting?

Helico-pterFunk

Rising Star
BGOL Legend








 

Helico-pterFunk

Rising Star
BGOL Legend




 

DC_Dude

Rising Star
BGOL Investor

Most Popular Metros for Gen Z Homebuyers​

Written by
JACOB CHANNEL
Edited by
DAN SHEPARD
PEARLY HUANG
Updated on: June 5th, 2023
lt-leaf-logo
Why use LendingTree?

Though many Generation Zers born between 1997 and 2012 are children or young teens, some older members are attending college, starting careers and buying homes for the first time.
But where are Gen Zers looking to buy? To answer, LendingTree analyzed mortgage purchase requests from adult Gen Z users of the LendingTree platform across the nation’s 50 largest metros from Jan. 1 through Dec. 31, 2022.
Although adult Gen Zers (ages 18 to 25) account for an average of 14.91% of potential homebuyers across the nation’s 50 largest metros, that figure will likely grow over the coming years.
On this page

Key findings​

  • At 22.59%, Salt Lake City has the largest share of mortgage requests from Gen Zers. Though the average mortgage amount in Salt Lake City is higher than in many of the nation’s other large metros, it’s a hot spot for younger homebuyers, likely owing to — among other factors — its strong jobs market and a good blend of urban and rural amenities.
  • After Salt Lake City, relatively inexpensive Oklahoma City and Birmingham, Ala., are the next most popular metros among Gen Z buyers. Respectively, 22.36% and 20.79% of mortgage requests in these two metros come from Gen Zers.
  • In expensive San Francisco, New York and San Jose, Calif., the smallest percentage of mortgages are being requested by Gen Zers. Respectively, 7.76%, 8.88% and 9.70% of mortgage requests in these metros come from Gen Zers. While these shares are lower than the 50-metro average of 14.91%, they’re still nothing to sneeze at. As Gen Zers age over the coming years, these shares will likely rise even higher.
  • All in all, six of the 10 least popular metros for potential Gen Z buyers are in California. This shows how much of an obstacle the state’s expensive real estate can be for younger buyers to overcome.
  • The average credit score of Gen Z mortgage borrowers can vary widely across the U.S. The average credit score among Gen Zers who made mortgage purchase requests is highest in Buffalo, N.Y., at 707 56 points above the average score of 651 in New Orleans, where it’s the lowest.
  • Down payment amounts also vary by metro. There’s a $59,034 difference between the average down payment among potential Gen Z homebuyers of $77,786 in San Jose and $18,752 in Oklahoma City — the highest and the lowest across the 50 largest metros.
  • Like credit scores and down payments, mortgage amounts can change quite a bit depending on where buyers live. In San Jose, the average mortgage amount offered to Gen Zers is $541,436. That’s $347,836 more than the $193,600 average in Cleveland, where potential Gen Z homebuyers borrow the least.

Most popular metros for Gen Z homebuyers​

No. 1: Salt Lake City

  • Share of mortgage requests from Gen Zers: 22.59%
  • Average Gen Z homebuyer age: 22
  • Average credit score among potential Gen Z homebuyers: 678
  • Average down payment amount among potential Gen Z homebuyers: $30,456
  • Average requested loan amount among potential Gen Z homebuyers: $340,484

No. 2: Oklahoma City

  • Share of mortgage requests from Gen Zers: 22.36%
  • Average Gen Z homebuyer age: 22
  • Average credit score among potential Gen Z homebuyers: 680
  • Average down payment amount among potential Gen Z homebuyers: $18,752
  • Average requested loan amount among potential Gen Z homebuyers: $208,475

No. 3: Birmingham, Ala.

  • Share of mortgage requests from Gen Zers: 20.79%
  • Average Gen Z homebuyer age: 22
  • Average credit score among potential Gen Z homebuyers: 679
  • Average down payment amount among potential Gen Z homebuyers: $22,024
  • Average requested loan amount among potential Gen Z homebuyers: $215,894

Most-popular-metros-for-Gen-Z-homebuyers.jpg

Least popular metros for Gen Z homebuyers​

No. 1: San Francisco

  • Share of mortgage requests from Gen Zers: 7.76%
  • Average Gen Z homebuyer age: 23
  • Average credit score among potential Gen Z homebuyers: 674
  • Average down payment amount among potential Gen Z homebuyers: $66,561
  • Average requested loan amount among potential Gen Z homebuyers: $531,089

No. 2: New York

  • Share of mortgage requests from Gen Zers: 8.88%
  • Average Gen Z homebuyer age: 23
  • Average credit score among potential Gen Z homebuyers: 697
  • Average down payment amount among potential Gen Z homebuyers: $46,476
  • Average requested loan amount among potential Gen Z homebuyers: $340,501

No. 3: San Jose, Calif.

  • Share of mortgage requests from Gen Zers: 9.70%
  • Average Gen Z homebuyer age: 23
  • Average credit score among potential Gen Z homebuyers: 683
  • Average down payment amount among potential Gen Z homebuyers: $77,786
  • Average requested loan amount among potential Gen Z homebuyers: $541,436

Least-popular-metros-for-Gen-Z-homebuyers.jpg




What’s in store for Gen Z buyers in 2023 and beyond​

Our findings illustrate that Gen Zers make up a noteworthy share of homebuyers in many of the nation’s largest metros. While this doesn’t undercut how difficult it can be to buy a home — especially for younger buyers without as much cash or experience in the housing market — it helps dispel the myth that homeownership is impossible for all young Americans.
These findings don’t mean that the future of homebuying will be smooth sailing for Gen Zers. In fact, because mortgage rates have risen year over year while home prices have remained high, many would-be buyers will likely find buying a home to be anything but easy. This is especially true for adult Gen Zers, many of whom don’t earn especially high incomes because they’re still in college or starting their careers.
Owing to these challenges, cheaper alternatives to buying, like renting or living with family, may remain the best option for many members of Generation Z.
Fortunately, while these more affordable options might be more attainable for now, Gen Zers will likely have plenty of opportunities to become homebuyers over the coming years as their earnings increase. Though it may not happen overnight, Gen Zers will likely make up the biggest share of homebuyers in the U.S. at some point, in the same way that millennials eventually became the dominant force in the housing market.

Tips for Gen Z homebuyers​

Rising rates, high home prices and low housing inventory have made homebuying more difficult for many Gen Zers. But that doesn’t mean homebuying is an impossible goal for members of the generation.
Here are three tips that can help Gen Zers make the homebuying process more manageable:
  • Boost your credit scores and savings. Because it’s a competitive seller’s market in many areas, would-be homebuyers need strong credit scores and substantial cash for a down payment to make a purchase. By focusing on paying down other debts before looking for a home to purchase, Gen Zers can boost their credit scores and free up extra cash that can go toward a home.
  • Shop around for a mortgage. Shopping around for a mortgage before buying a home can help borrowers find a better mortgage rate, which can lower their monthly payments and help them figure out how much money they’ll qualify for and how expensive a house they’ll be able to afford.
  • Consider first-time buyer programs. Various programs available to first-time homebuyers can make homeownership a more achievable goal for those with smaller down payments and lower credit scores. These programs are especially useful to Gen Zers, many of whom are first-time buyers.

Methodology​

LendingTree used generational definitions from the Pew Research Center to define the age range for Gen Zers as being born between 1997 and 2012.
Metropolitan statistical area (MSA) rankings were generated by looking at the percentage of total purchase mortgage requests generated on the LendingTree platform from adult Gen Z borrowers (18 to 25) as a percentage of the total number of requests generated by borrowers of all ages. The larger the share of requests from Gen Zers, the higher ranking a metro received.
Borrower data was derived from mortgage purchase requests made by users of the LendingTree mortgage shopping platform across the nation’s 50 largest metros from Jan. 1 through Dec. 31, 2022.
 

Helico-pterFunk

Rising Star
BGOL Legend




 

Helico-pterFunk

Rising Star
BGOL Legend




 

praetor

Rising Star
OG Investor


Median Monthly House Payment, by State:

1. Hawaii: $4,870
2. California: $4,590
3. Massachusetts: $3,830
4. Washington: $3,700
5. New Jersey: $3,600
6. Colorado: $3,310
7. New Hampshire: $3,290
8. Oregon: $3,180
9. Utah: $3,160
10. New York: $3,070
11. Rhode Island: $2,940
12. Montana: $2,840
13. Connecticut: $2,760
14. Idaho: $2,750
15. Maryland: $2,600

There are now a record 26 states with a median house payment that is above $2,000/month.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates are back above 7% and rising quickly.
 

doe moe

Rising Star
Platinum Member

‘There’s nothing in the data that shows prices crash’: America’s housing market is showing remarkable resilience​


The housing market may feel out of whack to home buyers coping with fast-rising home prices and 7% mortgage rates. But like it or not, the housing market is in the pink of health.


Several economic indicators that measure housing activity — from home prices to sentiment surveys — show that home builders and sellers (the few that are out there) are finding strong demand from home buyers.

News of the housing market’s relative health may be welcome to some — like real-estate agents and investors — but it’s becoming a concern for economists. The more buoyant the housing market, economists say, the more likely the U.S. Federal Reserve will unveil another interest-rate hike, which further heightens the risk of a recession.



This feature is powered by text-to-speech technology. Want to see it on more articles?
Give your feedback below or email audiofeedback@marketwatch.com.



The housing market may feel out of whack to home buyers coping with fast-rising home prices and 7% mortgage rates. But like it or not, the housing market is in the pink of health.

Several economic indicators that measure housing activity — from home prices to sentiment surveys — show that home builders and sellers (the few that are out there) are finding strong demand from home buyers.

News of the housing market’s relative health may be welcome to some — like real-estate agents and investors — but it’s becoming a concern for economists. The more buoyant the housing market, economists say, the more likely the U.S. Federal Reserve will unveil another interest-rate hike, which further heightens the risk of a recession.

‘The housing market has started to recover, and this is a problem for the Fed because more demand for housing will boost home prices and rents.’
— Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo

“The housing market has started to recover, and this is a problem for the Fed because more demand for housing will boost home prices and rents,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, wrote in a note in May. And housing is a big part of how the government measures inflation, he added. This will make it more difficult to reduce inflation from 5% to the Fed’s 2% inflation target, he said.

If the Fed launches another rate hike, it would push mortgage rates, which are already in the 7% range, to go even higher.

“The housing market is in a very — if fragile — recovery,” Mike Simonsen, founder and president of real-estate analytics firm Altos Research, told MarketWatch.

“There appears to be more demand than available supply for homes, especially in the real-estate market,” he explained, which is keeping home prices high, but that doesn’t mean demand could evaporate if the current situation changes. Recall when rates doubled from pandemic-era lows in 2021 to 7% last year, which zapped home-buying momentum.

House hunters have adjusted their expectations. But if rates were to jump from 7% today to even higher levels, “I would not be at all surprised if homebuyers stopped abruptly again,” Simonsen said, stating his thesis for the fragility of the sector. Americans broadly expect rates to go over 8%, according to a March survey by the New York Federal Reserve.
 

4 Dimensional

Rising Star
Platinum Member
what’s crazy is that I’m financially ready to move. Credit score is now over 800, I have paid down my credit debt and I can afford something nice.

What is prevent me from buying right now? My fuckn contract with my job ends at the end of the year and I’m looking for a new gig now. I don’t want to end up with a 2-3k house payment on my current salary and I am unable to find another job to replace it. I don’t want to drain my savings in the process.

So I am current looking for a new job. I have until the end of the year. Good thing my part time job is a professor. I’ll still be able to pay my bills.

But right now, I’m utilizing this time to secure a more stable position or at least find another contract job.
 

Helico-pterFunk

Rising Star
BGOL Legend




 

Helico-pterFunk

Rising Star
BGOL Legend


 

Helico-pterFunk

Rising Star
BGOL Legend




 

praetor

Rising Star
OG Investor


I don't track residential as closely as I should in LA, but market seems quite hot right now even with rates approaching 7%.

A client of ours has struck out on numerous properties, so he's asked us to help him try to purchase a probate in court. Here's what an average resi buyer is willing to put up with right now in LA:

1. Two people have died in the house on separate occasions in the past 3 years. For me that's a no, but he wants the damn house so bad he's willing to risk living with ghosts!!

2. We have to go to court to overbid the accepted offer. We'll need to battle early morning traffic to get to Downtown LA at 8:30am. Might be the worst part

3. He's willing to bid about 10% over the accepted offer!

4. Needs to bring a cashiers check for 10% of his offer. If accepted it's automatically non-refundable. Better close or lose the 10%.

5. Plans to close with about 50% down. Cash heavy!

6. It's a gut job. He'll still need to plough a bunch of money into it.

7. It's an average deal at best, and we've told him that. But he wants/needs the house, so here we go!
 

Helico-pterFunk

Rising Star
BGOL Legend




 

praetor

Rising Star
OG Investor

I'm wondering if they are actually trying to occupy that unit instead of writing it off as a loss. It's been on the market off and on for two years. They could have just converted it to a rental.
 

Helico-pterFunk

Rising Star
BGOL Legend
“The average rental price in Manhattan was just under $5,000 in May.

The median rental price in Brooklyn also increased to $3,250 in May, an 18 percent rise from the previous year.”



 
Top