I’m looking at all these “polls” with ballots turned in based on party registration and it makes you wonder.
How much registered Republicans are going to vote for Harris?
I’m assuming this election more than any previous one is going to see the biggest one registered party member vote for the other side in our history.
I’m wondering statistically how can we measure that?
@4 Dimensional
Anyone else?
I assume one way is based on the final results. If this thing is a HUGE blowout then the only logical
Explanation is a certain percentage of votes had to come from the other side to explain the variance from the norm dataset?
When engaging with that joker, you need to keep in mind you're dealing with a someone who has BEEN demonstrated he's suffering from a severe case of the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Being out of his depth is not a bug, its a feature for him.That unlikely, hypothetical electoral map is if there were "no tossup (battleground) states". You probably don't even realize there have been battleground states for DECADES in every General Election, including this current 2024 election. So far, the Early Vote count, tells us that Trump is nowhere near winning all 7 battleground states.
You are clearly out of your depth, here.
The final result would definitely be the best way to know the percentage of republicans the voted dem. That becomes a huge outlier in this elections. Other demographics to look at would be white women and black men’s percentage as well. If black men has a lower turnout for Dems, then it could be offset by the number of republicans that for Dems.
So, we’ll see what happens.
This is kinda the thing that is throwing me. Because this is being reported as percentages where, historically, the idea of crossover voting (at least on any serious level) would not particularly matter.I’m looking at all these “polls” with ballots turned in based on party registration and it makes you wonder.
How much registered Republicans are going to vote for Harris?
I’m assuming this election more than any previous one is going to see the biggest one registered party member vote for the other side in our history.
I’m wondering statistically how can we measure that?
@4 Dimensional
Anyone else?
I assume one way is based on the final results. If this thing is a HUGE blowout then the only logical
Explanation is a certain percentage of votes had to come from the other side to explain the variance from the norm dataset?
If only the most strict immigration bill in the 21st century was passed earlier this year
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