Update: Vice President Kamala Harris is now the Democratic presidential nominee

4 Dimensional

Rising Star
Platinum Member
I’m looking at all these “polls” with ballots turned in based on party registration and it makes you wonder.

How much registered Republicans are going to vote for Harris?

I’m assuming this election more than any previous one is going to see the biggest one registered party member vote for the other side in our history.

I’m wondering statistically how can we measure that?

@4 Dimensional

Anyone else?

I assume one way is based on the final results. If this thing is a HUGE blowout then the only logical
Explanation is a certain percentage of votes had to come from the other side to explain the variance from the norm dataset?

The final result would definitely be the best way to know the percentage of republicans the voted dem. That becomes a huge outlier in this elections. Other demographics to look at would be white women and black men’s percentage as well. If black men has a lower turnout for Dems, then it could be offset by the number of republicans that for Dems.

So, we’ll see what happens.
 

HeathCliff

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
That unlikely, hypothetical electoral map is if there were "no tossup (battleground) states". You probably don't even realize there have been battleground states for DECADES in every General Election, including this current 2024 election. So far, the Early Vote count, tells us that Trump is nowhere near winning all 7 battleground states.

You are clearly out of your depth, here.
When engaging with that joker, you need to keep in mind you're dealing with a someone who has BEEN demonstrated he's suffering from a severe case of the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Being out of his depth is not a bug, its a feature for him.
 

tical

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
The final result would definitely be the best way to know the percentage of republicans the voted dem. That becomes a huge outlier in this elections. Other demographics to look at would be white women and black men’s percentage as well. If black men has a lower turnout for Dems, then it could be offset by the number of republicans that for Dems.

So, we’ll see what happens.

Lots of permutations on this one. It’s going to be interesting..
 

T_Holmes

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
I’m looking at all these “polls” with ballots turned in based on party registration and it makes you wonder.

How much registered Republicans are going to vote for Harris?

I’m assuming this election more than any previous one is going to see the biggest one registered party member vote for the other side in our history.

I’m wondering statistically how can we measure that?

@4 Dimensional

Anyone else?

I assume one way is based on the final results. If this thing is a HUGE blowout then the only logical
Explanation is a certain percentage of votes had to come from the other side to explain the variance from the norm dataset?
This is kinda the thing that is throwing me. Because this is being reported as percentages where, historically, the idea of crossover voting (at least on any serious level) would not particularly matter.

And we don't know that it will, yet. But we do know that there are some areas where a large number of Republicans might vote Democrat or, at the very least, not vote Republican. Until we have a better metric for that, though, none of these numbers give clear pictures.

Hell, we may not have a clear picture until the actual counting is done. Which is interesting, but also annoying. If nothing else, we know that if the results don't match the presumed percentages, it will just be one more thing trump will try to twist into some sort of cheating narrative. I can imagine he's already been pushing that line harder because he's seen numbers that indicate that might be what happens.
 

Tdot_firestarta

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
If only the most strict immigration bill in the 21st century was passed earlier this year :smh:

Exactly

also I always find these random images of "Caravans" interesting it's always a story of mass hysteria with no verified dates, entry points, destinations, live reporters in the present time etc.
 

OutlawR.O.C.

R.I.P. shanebp1978
BGOL Investor






:smh:


Someone recently said that Trump pardoned individuals such as Harry O due to their violent criminal past as a fuck you to the black community since he felt our high turnout for Biden cost him the election.

I don't know if there's any truth to that but I found it interesting.

As far as him endorsing Trump it's a non story since very few people know or care who he is and I'd almost expect him to endorse Trump since he granted him freedom when no one else would.



This is the lawsuit version of:

 
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