2015: The next recession has started

Efkie

International
International Member
VIX is at 27.

55187423.jpg
 

easy_b

Easy_b is in the place to be.
BGOL Investor
the US is not to bad....the little correction thats is going on is getting rid of the soft money
 

kefta

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
All markets are rigged, gold, diamonds, oil. even food... You think the powers that be would leave the financial fate of the world up to fate? Remember the goal of these CAC's is to challenge god/fate/or nature by determining their own destiny... One reason for world domination is to have complete control of the trade market, and they do so by integrating people from all over the world, to their system and paying them off well for their participation as sentinels for their system..
As fucked up as it is, the world is so dependent on this system so much that all is needed is a lil kid stating the Emperor has no clothes on for everyone to see how much of a ruse the whole thing is...
And even that wont work due to the fact that nobody wants to give up our comfortable cushy way of life provided by the system....
C/S!!!
 

Mrfreddygoodbud

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
this whole system if controlled by fear of the masses..

dont pay attention to none of that shit... save your chips,

then when the markets come down... buy buy buy!!!


the only time you have to look out for, is when people start burning dollars in the street...

as long as they are still lining up on black friday to shop...


just save them chips and get ready for the next market manipulation...

we never get the true story...

but it doesnt matter what fear mongering story they are throwing

at you...


when you learn history and learn how to follow patterns..

you can capitalize on it, just like those who control the strings to....


fear mongering is big fuckin business..
 

Mixd

Duppy Maker
BGOL Investor
All markets are rigged, gold, diamonds, oil. even food... You think the powers that be would leave the financial fate of the world up to fate? Remember the goal of these CAC's is to challenge god/fate/or nature by determining their own destiny... One reason for world domination is to have complete control of the trade market, and they do so by integrating people from all over the world, to their system and paying them off well for their participation as sentinels for their system..
As fucked up as it is, the world is so dependent on this system so much that all is needed is a lil kid stating the Emperor has no clothes on for everyone to see how much of a ruse the whole thing is...
And even that wont work due to the fact that nobody wants to give up our comfortable cushy way of life provided by the system....
PREACH
babylawd.png
 

456.North.side

Rising Star
Registered
That Iran oil isnt going to help oil prices, and until we shake off that dynamic its going to be interesting.... got me looking at more section 8 properties lol
 

Dannyblueyes

Aka Illegal Danny
BGOL Investor
I saw a headline on the San Francisco Chronicle the other day that said that in 2015 the city received more venture capital investment then it has since 2000. These startup companies are creating more ridiculous apps everyday and their burn rate is phenomenal. Hopefully this is a sign of the end. Then those techy assholes can go home, those apartment prices will come down, and the city will be spared from becoming another hipster wasteland.

Even more so I hope this reverses the so-called progress of gentrification. The city screwed itself royally by chasing out all the people who have been sticking with it through the bad times in favor of new white money.
 

gene cisco

Not A BGOL Eunuch
BGOL Investor
I saw a headline on the San Francisco Chronicle the other day that said that in 2015 the city received more venture capital investment then it has since 2000. These startup companies are creating more ridiculous apps everyday and their burn rate is phenomenal. Hopefully this is a sign of the end. Then those techy assholes can go home, those apartment prices will come down, and the city will be spared from becoming another hipster wasteland.

Even more so I hope this reverses the so-called progress of gentrification. The city screwed itself royally by chasing out all the people who have been sticking with it through the bad times in favor of new white money.

Good luck with that. Those 'techy assholes' haven't even figured out how to use all that data they are collecting on people. They aren't going anywhere. People need their technology these days. Fools can't go five minutes without fumbling with their phones. This isn't 2000. Native Americans have a better chance of seeing cacs going back to Europe than you have of seeing techies leave the area.
 

Dannyblueyes

Aka Illegal Danny
BGOL Investor
Good luck with that. Those 'techy assholes' haven't even figured out how to use all that data they are collecting on people. They aren't going anywhere. People need their technology these days. Fools can't go five minutes without fumbling with their phones. This isn't 2000. Native Americans have a better chance of seeing cacs going back to Europe than you have of seeing techies leave the area.

San Francisco isn't the only area with the tech boom. Seattle Washington is already up there. Austin Texas and Richmond Virginia are developing too. the latter two have the advantage of cheap land and labor.

Plus the products some of these start-ups are making are borderline retarded. They got a company called rad pad which will help you find an apartment and also pay your roommate with a paper check if you give them money electronically. It's a service that Craigslist and your local bank can provide far better yet some how they have enough money to advertise at the Powell Street subway station. Don't get me started on NerdWallet. It's the square watermelon of tech.

San Francisco is like a college freshman who just got a shitload of brand new credit cards. Everything's golden until the lenders stop raising the limit.
 

Moving Target

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
BUMP.....KEEP POSTING!!! I have been on the hunt for this information and need to have a concrete plan of action (not if) but when things go south.
 

Moving Target

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
Good luck with that. Those 'techy assholes' haven't even figured out how to use all that data they are collecting on people. They aren't going anywhere. People need their technology these days. Fools can't go five minutes without fumbling with their phones. This isn't 2000. Native Americans have a better chance of seeing cacs going back to Europe than you have of seeing techies leave the area.


Maybe in Cali, they have not figured out how to use big data, but here in DC, its coming on fast. I used to be one of those techies until a better opportunity came along. The chick I used to work with had a PHD in data science (dunno how she even found a school with that program) but she was working with my organization then the "company" came in, saw the work she was doing. then offered her 6 figures and 2 weeks later she was gone. Data mining and big data manipulation and stats are huge here. but after seeing a demo of its abilities, I was convinced that its real. every human being has certain habits, likes and dislikes. some we are not even aware of until someone points it out. it is a way of narrowing down certain peculiarities that a target of interest has then using that huge database to find them. See it, it works. right down to the websites a person habitually visits or items of interest a person shops for.
 

Kubrick

Rising Star
OG Investor
I work for a financial company (in IT) and I can tell you that it does feel like a recession has started or is close. We have stopped spending along with hiring freeze and layoffs.
 

CoTtOnMoUf

DUMBED DOWN TO BLEND IN
BGOL Legend
you fear mongers are at it again?


settle down... don't get nervous.
all is ok. this is just one of many blips that we will hit along the way but this is NOT the beginning of another recession. :shades:
 

Dannyblueyes

Aka Illegal Danny
BGOL Investor
you fear mongers are at it again?


settle down... don't get nervous.
all is ok. this is just one of many blips that we will hit along the way but this is NOT the beginning of another recession. :shades:

I'm actually looking forward to a recession. This rampant lending has pushed rents into the stratosphere and fueled gentrification like nobody's business.

Even if tech hits the bricks San Francisco's biggest industries are tourism and conventions so as a DJ and sound engineer I still have those bases covered.
 

Kubrick

Rising Star
OG Investor
you fear mongers are at it again?


settle down... don't get nervous.
all is ok. this is just one of many blips that we will hit along the way but this is NOT the beginning of another recession. :shades:


Talk of another REcession is not fear mongering. Recessions are part of the economic cycle. Now if someone was saying this recession will be as bad as the last, then you can call that fear-mongering.
 

CoTtOnMoUf

DUMBED DOWN TO BLEND IN
BGOL Legend
Talk of another REcession is not fear mongering. Recessions are part of the economic cycle. Now if someone was saying this recession will be as bad as the last, then you can call that fear-mongering.

I think that claiming we're in a recession when we're not, is fear mongering !

We are not on a recession.
 

Famous1

Rising Star
Platinum Member
you fear mongers are at it again?


settle down... don't get nervous.
all is ok. this is just one of many blips that we will hit along the way but this is NOT the beginning of another

recession. :shades:

re·ces·sion
rəˈseSH(ə)n/
noun
  1. 1.
    a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
    synonyms: economic decline, downturn,depression, slump, slowdown
    "job losses are symptomatic of the recession"
 

Mixd

Duppy Maker
BGOL Investor
China GDP just was released http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/18/china-reveals-key-q4-2015-gdp-data.html
and it's down, so it was a major factor that all markets were waiting on and their markets are about to open along with the US markets in the morning.

Just saying... It's not going to be pretty, but we'll see what happens.

This turn of oil, and bringing down of the markets is not fear mongering. There are things at work about to reset the world economy. If it does not happen, many govts globally are going to implode. Almost every country is broke including America.

Add to that France
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/18/the-...ch-president-declares-economic-emergency.html
 

456.North.side

Rising Star
Registered
Oil prices just going back to where they should be.That $100 dollars a barrel shit was just pure greed.
agreed, they were really inflated I remember them saying that it would jump with a "reason" but wouldnt come back down, lol I saw a dude that passed on a 30k+ plus raise to stay with a big oil company back in 2012 leave last week, and I know another contractor that was in the 250k range that got the ax so they are "feeling" the pinch for sure.
 

456.North.side

Rising Star
Registered
I saw a headline on the San Francisco Chronicle the other day that said that in 2015 the city received more venture capital investment then it has since 2000. These startup companies are creating more ridiculous apps everyday and their burn rate is phenomenal. Hopefully this is a sign of the end. Then those techy assholes can go home, those apartment prices will come down, and the city will be spared from becoming another hipster wasteland.

Even more so I hope this reverses the so-called progress of gentrification. The city screwed itself royally by chasing out all the people who have been sticking with it through the bad times in favor of new white money.

we are all not ass holes :) , but look people in SEattle complain about this kinf of thing all the time. tech workers salaries drive up housing cost... and I agree but fuck man how do you think it was going to go? remember two things... "built it and they will come" and supply and demand rules... This is all you are seeing with the tech cities. Whats the alternative? companies have to setup shop somewhere? and wherever they do they have to pay to get people to show up... yes.... so it is what it is... If any of the large tech companies said they wanted to leave a spot, the city woudl line up every woman on the payrol 18 and over to blow any decision maker at those companies to stay... lol
 

DaAssWatcher

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
agreed, they were really inflated I remember them saying that it would jump with a "reason" but wouldnt come back down, lol I saw a dude that passed on a 30k+ plus raise to stay with a big oil company back in 2012 leave last week, and I know another contractor that was in the 250k range that got the ax so they are "feeling" the pinch for sure.
The mind fuck they pulled on the entire population was crazy.
Prices jumped to $2.10 for the 1st time and everyone was bitching.Then they hit $2.75 and cats were really crying.Them shits went over $3.00 I knew they were preparing people for the new normal.
You couldn't even sell an SUV at that time.
People were jumping for joy when prices went down to $2.95 not realizing gas used to be $1.10.

They gonna hit us with $4.00 gas real soon and everyones gonna be jumping for joy at the thought of $3.50 gas later on.SMH
 

Dannyblueyes

Aka Illegal Danny
BGOL Investor
we are all not ass holes :) , but look people in SEattle complain about this kinf of thing all the time. tech workers salaries drive up housing cost... and I agree but fuck man how do you think it was going to go? remember two things... "built it and they will come" and supply and demand rules... This is all you are seeing with the tech cities. Whats the alternative? companies have to setup shop somewhere? and wherever they do they have to pay to get people to show up... yes.... so it is what it is... If any of the large tech companies said they wanted to leave a spot, the city woudl line up every woman on the payrol 18 and over to blow any decision maker at those companies to stay... lol

To tell you the truth is really not the techies I hate. It's the way the city bends over backwards for them at the expense of everyone else. That money is a big reason that AIR BNB has been allowed to cut rental units by a third. It's also why so many working class people have been forced out of homes they've lived in for decades so that they can be redeveloped for bigger money.

Worst of all these companies tend to have VERY racist hiring policies and that attitude seeps into all aspects of city life. It's the reason the cops can get away with lynching black men to near Ohio levels and nobody cares. It's also why all signs of black culture have completely disappeared from the western addition. I know that cacs will be cacs, but without someone to keep them in check they turn into monsters.

That's why I'm praying for a recession.
 

Matt Beesy

Bgol Mod & Creator Of The Crypto Thread On Bgol
Super Moderator
I am an personal advisor for one of the most successful investors / hedge fund managers in the world ..... word on the streets is in the next month or two we go to record highs and then we drop like a bullet and go back into recession for the next 5 years........ this dude im working for is averaging around 29% profit a year no matter which direction the market goes......

Futures right now are up 26 points on the s&p at 345am meaning tommorrow will probably be a big day on wallstreet..... Hopefully we see a 300 point day....... Bonds will go down and gold will probably go down a $1 or two...... oil will stay horizontal.
 
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futureshock

Renegade of this atomic age
Registered
What happened to calls to build all of those pipelines to lower the cost of gas and oil from the Faux crowd?

IF a glikkkan (Bush...cough) were to become POTUS would they seek to prop up the oil industry once again?


Obama was on that green team and he could not find any fuks to give about that crowd. After all that they put us through....it is nice to see them shaking in their texas boots.

Big banks are cringing as crude oil is crumbling.


Firms on Wall Street helped bankroll America's energy boom, financing very expensive drilling projects that ended up flooding the world with oil.

Now that the oil glut has caused prices to crash below $30 a barrel, turmoil is rippling through the energy industry and souring many of those loans. Dozens of oil companies have gone bankrupt and the ones that haven't are feeling enough financial stress to slash spending and cut tens of thousands of jobs.

Three of America's biggest banks warned last week that oil prices will continue to create headaches on Wall Street -- especially if doomsday scenarios of $20 or even $10 oil play out.

For instance, Wells Fargo (WFC) is sitting on more than $17 billion in loans to the oil and gas sector. The bank is setting aside $1.2 billion in reserves to cover losses because of the "continued deterioration within the energy sector."

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is setting aside an extra $124 million to cover potential losses in its oil and gas loans. It warned that figure could rise to $750 million if oil prices unexpectedly stay at their current $30 level for the next 18 months.

"The biggest area of stress" is the oil and gas space, Marianne Lake, JPMorgan's chief financial officer, told analysts during a call on Thursday. "As the outlook for oil has weakened, we would expect to see some additional reserve build in 2016."

Citigroup (C) built up loan loss reserves in the energy space by $300 million. The bank said the move reflects its view that "oil prices are likely to remain low for a longer period of time."

If oil stays around $30 a barrel, Citi is bracing for about $600 million of energy credit losses in the first half of 2016. Citi said that figure could double to $1.2 billion if oil dropped to $25 a barrel and stayed there.

150114162636-oil-stocks-hurting-banks-1024x576.png



Related: $10 oil: Crazy or the real floor beneath the oil crash?

More oil companies will die

The oil crash has already caused 42 North American oil companies to file for bankruptcy since the beginning of 2015, according to a list compiled by Houston law firm Haynes and Boone. It's only likely to get worse. Standard & Poor's estimates that 50% of energy junk bonds are "distressed,"meaning they are at risk of default.

"There is a lot of distress in the industry. There will be a lot of pain but they'll get through it," said Buddy Clark, a 33-year veteran of the energy finance space and a partner at Haynes and Boone.

The financial pain has gotten so great that now there's murmurs of a bail out for the U.S. oil industry, though it's clear any assistance would run into political opposition.

Related: Is it time to bail out the U.S. oil industry?

Are banks ready?

All of this raises the question: Is Wall Street doing enough to prepare for the oil storm?

"One year from now, are you going to look back and say, 'Whoops, we didn't get ahead of this enough,'" outspoken banking analyst Mike Mayo asked JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon during Thursday's conference call.

Dimon said if it were up to him, he'd reserve against the potential for even greater losses. However, he said those decisions are limited by accounting rules.

Still, Dimon said the energy portfolio makes up just a small portion of JPMorgan's balance sheet and many of the loans are backed by physical assets. That means banks can sell off assets to recover money if a company defaults on its loans.

"We're not worried about the big oil companies. These are mostly the smaller ones that you're talking," Dimon said.

Paul Miller, a banking analyst at FBR, said oil loans don't represent nearly the same threat to banks that mortgages did last decade. He also pointed out that banks have been forced to stockpile capital to help them absorb losses.

"The big banks might have 1% to 6% of exposure. That's not going to kill them. This is not like 2006 or 2007," Miller said.

Despite the turmoil, JPMorgan isn't planning to run away from the oil patch.

"To the extent we can responsibly support clients, we're going to. And if we lose a little bit more money because of it, so be it," Dimon said.
 
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456.North.side

Rising Star
Registered
To tell you the truth is really not the techies I hate. It's the way the city bends over backwards for them at the expense of everyone else. That money is a big reason that AIR BNB has been allowed to cut rental units by a third. It's also why so many working class people have been forced out of homes they've lived in for decades so that they can be redeveloped for bigger money.

Worst of all these companies tend to have VERY racist hiring policies and that attitude seeps into all aspects of city life. It's the reason the cops can get away with lynching black men to near Ohio levels and nobody cares. It's also why all signs of black culture have completely disappeared from the western addition. I know that cacs will be cacs, but without someone to keep them in check they turn into monsters.

That's why I'm praying for a recession.

thats a interesting approach, a recession for a solution. I work at one of the top tech companies now and i know cities and states bend over to get the companies to move in. Im not sure how tech companies are the blame for cops in other states... but if thats what you sold yourself on then go for it.. but how will a recession help?
 
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