**** 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Tropical Storm Rafael (60 mph) | Heading to the Gulf ****
- Thread starter 4 Dimensional
- Start date
Yep, those people on the Outer Banks are doomedNC has just had a tropical low-pressure system move through the last two days, dumping nearly 20 inches of rain on our coast.
Some of the homes in the outer banks continue to suffer from the rising sea levels.
I the 850 was asking for some rain in ATL, send that shit to him
The GFS, ECMWF, and the Canadian models are picking up on a major storm in the gulf and west Florida is the target. Still monitoring. The NHC has now acknowledged potential formation in the next 7 days.
No, this season has been a little strange so far we ain’t done with hurricanes until November.
The National Hurricane Center has increased the development chances to 40% within seven days. Forecast models continue to indicate tropical development, with the GFS and Canadian models simulating a very powerful hurricane. The Gulf Coast should be on high alert.
GFS Model
ECMWF
Canadian Model
GFS Model
ECMWF
Canadian Model
This is going to be extremely interested if it formsThe National Hurricane Center has increased the development chances to 40% within seven days. Forecast models continue to indicate tropical development, with the GFS and Canadian models simulating a very powerful hurricane. The Gulf Coast should be on high alert.
GFS Model
ECMWF
Canadian Model
Yep if this stay true this system coming directly for us….The National Hurricane Center has increased the development chances to 40% within seven days. Forecast models continue to indicate tropical development, with the GFS and Canadian models simulating a very powerful hurricane. The Gulf Coast should be on high alert.
GFS Model
ECMWF
Canadian Model
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@4 Dimensional a local weather guy said this thing likely to be Catastrophic if it forms like projections
High risk of tropical development, US hurricane threat next week
09/19/2024
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
The potential for dangerous conditions along the United States Gulf Coast will likely ramp up next week as meteorologists anticipate a tropical storm that could strengthen to a hurricane will enter the region.
AccuWeather meteorologists continue to highlight a high risk of tropical development next week from the northwestern Caribbean to the south-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Any system that evolves, regardless of intensity, is likely to threaten the United States along the Gulf coast.
“There is the potential for a tropical storm that forms in this area to strengthen into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico,” Senior Director of AccuWeather Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin said, “Historically, a storm moving northward from the Caribbean this time of the year not only strengthens but often rapidly strengthens. Major hurricanes have developed in similar situations in the past.”
AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno explained that the jet stream usually directs established tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico this time of the year.
“Typically, the jet stream tends to pull systems to the north and east that enter the Gulf with a higher probability of a direct strike from Louisiana to the Florida west coast versus the Texas coast,” Rayno said.
For this reason, there are likely to be at least indirect impacts throughout the Gulf Coast during the middle and latter part of next week, with escalating impacts in some areas, depending on the track of the tropical feature. Conditions ranging from building surf and seas to the potential for storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rainfall are all possible.
Key development factors
Factors expected to lead to tropical development from the western Caribbean to part of the southern Gulf of Mexico include the formation of the Central America gyre, a large, slowly spinning area of low pressure that makes it easy for showers and thunderstorms to develop and cluster. This gyre is much more common in the spring and later in the autumn.
The second factor will be a dip in the jet stream, which will not only help the gyre to strengthen but also influence the track of a tropical feature after it forms.
“Should all factors come together, this storm, which is expected to become a hurricane, can be highly impactful and one of the ways this season is remembered”
Dan DePodwin, Senior Director of AccuWeather Forecasting Operations
“If the jet stream ends up being weak, then a tropical feature can still wander into the western Gulf of Mexico and end up near Texas,” Rayno said, “Most likely, though, there is usually enough jet stream influence to pull a system to the north and east at some point.”
Another factor is the extremely warm water in the anticipated development zone. Surface water temperatures throughout the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are sufficiently warm.
“The warm water extends hundreds of feet [deep] from the surface in the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf, so that when winds begin to churn the waters, there is minimal cooling of that surface water,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
This deep, warm water can also greatly increase the chances of rapid intensification.
Wind shear, or the stiff breezes that blow from one direction or change directions, is another factor that can make or break tropical features.
Strong wind shear can prevent the formation of a tropical storm or cause a tropical storm or hurricane to weaken. When wind shear is low, the circulation around a tropical storm or hurricane is not altered, and the feature can strengthen or maintain intensity. In some cases, a tropical storm or hurricane that moves along with wind shear, which is what could happen in the gulf after a time, can assist with strengthening.
“Should all factors come together, this storm, which is expected to become a hurricane, can be highly impactful and one of the ways this season is remembered,” DePodwin warned.
Who should be concerned?
All interests along the U.S. Gulf coast, southeastern Mexico, Cuba and part of Central America should closely monitor the situation through next week. A powerful storm could affect local, state and federal operations, as well as the vacation, fishing, cruise and petroleum industries.Impacts may extend beyond the U.S. Gulf Coast. Steering breezes can guide a system along for hundreds, even thousands, of miles beyond its initial landfall as a tropical rainstorm.
Yeah, man. I’m monitoring closely. I’ll make sure to keep you updated as much as I can. I’m closing on a house next week, so things are about to get really busy for me.
Oh yea that’s amazing bro…
I’m probably gonna start the process soon as well, we haven’t decided on the area yet. I love the idea of New Orleans but my peeps scared of NOLA.
Soooo now that her moms passed, she’s down for moving once pops is no longer around.
I might be able to slide Kenner/Metairie. I’d still have my NoLa feel and have them outta New Orleans.
Atl or Htown would be nice but big cities ain’t appealing to her.
For as the weather, I know the our in-house local hood weatherman will come thru when he can
Gulf Of Mexico
A diurnal surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche along 92W, with scattered showers developing along and near the northern portion of the trough axis. Another surface trough is noted over the SE Gulf along 24N and E of 85W with no notable convection nearby. Otherwise, high pressure of 1013 mb centered near 29N94W is dominating Gulf weather, bringing dry conditions, light to gentle winds, and seas of less than 3 ft.For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds may pulse in the eastern Bay of Campeche nightly through the next several days. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days. Regardless of development, winds and seas will start increasing across the SE Gulf early next week.
I the 850 was asking for some rain in ATL, send that shit to him
I don't like the heat as much as I did in my younger days.
I'll take some rain if it lowers the degrees a bit.
The National Hurricane Center is giving a 70% chance of development in the next seven days.
All three forecast models indicate some impact on the Gulf. The intensity and location of the effect are too far out to be specific, but people along the Gulf Coast should be prepared. The timing of impact seems to be around five days from now.
GFS Model
ECMWF Model
Canadian Model
All three forecast models indicate some impact on the Gulf. The intensity and location of the effect are too far out to be specific, but people along the Gulf Coast should be prepared. The timing of impact seems to be around five days from now.
GFS Model
ECMWF Model
Canadian Model
Damn was supposed to be in Orlando Saturday to watch Colorado vs UCF.The National Hurricane Center is giving a 70% chance of development in the next seven days.
All three forecast models indicate some impact on the Gulf. The intensity and location of the effect are too far out to be specific, but people along the Gulf Coast should be prepared. The timing of impact seems to be around five days from now.
GFS Model
ECMWF Model
Canadian Model
That shit probably ain’t happening
Yeah, that game could get cancelled. Definitely have a backup plan. Lol
Probably starting this old job again this week, so my Back up plan is go to work
But I damn sho was gonna let them know, “I know I’m just starting back but I there’s a trip schedule for this weekend”
From what you know and understand about storms, do you still feel there’s a chance for it to be major?
Probably starting this old job again this week, so my Back up plan is go to work
But I damn sho was gonna let them know, “I know I’m just starting back but I there’s a trip schedule for this weekend”
From what you know and understand about storms, do you still feel there’s a chance for it to be major?
We never really know until the events unfolds. Things like dry air intrusion and wind shear are very hard to predict, and those variables suppress storm intensification.
Based on what I see from the models, I would predict at least a cat 2. But models can be wrong as fuck, too.
Gotcha, there’s plenty y’all can predict but there’s a shit load of unknown within the developmental stage of these storms.
Kinfolk just know because if you, I’m able to use These sophisticated termanology pertaining to the storms, quite Fluently
So just know the Mask Man fucks with you…
I appreciate the work you put in and the help you provide for us
Appreciate it, family. Glad that you’re able to rely the messages to your people properly. This thread is meant to educate as much as it is to inform.
And I appreciate you and Easy hold the thread down when I can’t. I’ve been making these hurricane threads for over 10 years now. It’s wild to see how much I have evolved. But also, the folks who actively participate in the thread.
When I first got here on this board, I was just a master student. Now, I am an employed professional with major skin in the game. We all have learned a great deal, and continue to learn.
It’s truly a beautiful thang that we hear the growth but also kinda seen it(to a degree)
One of my favorite moment, during Ida I post in our group text, something you made and info about it
Moms was like, “Where did this come from, the weather channel haven’t reported on that”
I just said, “I know a hood meteorologist”
The beginning stages
Orlando is on the east side of Florida so basically their is no chance of the game being cancelled or impacted by the storm
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look like its coming right up through GA
The flooding is going to be bad, especially in South Central Georgia.