Long Range Forecast: ‘X-Men: Apocalypse’ & ‘Alice Through the Looking Glass’
AUTHOR
BOXOFFICE STAFF PUBLISHED
APRIL 1, 2016 COMMENTS
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One of the summer’s biggest box office battles is likely to take place on May 27 when both Fox’s
X-Men: Apocalypse and Disney’s
Alice Through the Looking Glassenter the marketplace over Memorial Day weekend. While 2010’s
Alice in Wonderland was a stronger performer than 2014’s
X-Men: Days of Future Past, BoxOffice feels
X-Men: Apocalypse should have the significant edge over
Alice Through the Looking Glass in their upcoming box office battle.
X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox)
PROS:
– 2014’s
X-Men: Days of Future Past helped rebuild the popularity of the
X-Menfranchise with a four-day opening weekend take of $110.6 million and final domestic gross of $233.9 million. The film was also very well received by moviegoers and critics alike.
–
X-Men: Apocalypse has been performing well on Twitter this far out. Recent activity for the film has been 22 percent softer than Twitter activity for
Deadpoolat the same point in its cycle earlier this year. In addition,
X-Men: Apocalypse has been performing significantly stronger than
Alice Through the Looking Glass on Twitter.
– While the stand-alone aspect of
Deadpool may not transfer into a huge boost for
X-Men: Apocalypse, the strong reception to
Deadpool could provide a bit of a boost, especially given the strong reception to
X-Men: Days of Future Past as well.
– The additions of Apocalypse, Psylocke and Archangel and the re-additions of Cyclops and Jean Grey should help further build anticipation for the film among
X-Men fans.
CONS:
– The level of competition
X-Men: Apocalypse will face. In addition to opening the same weekend as
Alice Through the Looking Glass, the film arrives just three weeks after Disney’s highly anticipated
Captain America: Civil War and one week before Paramount’s
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows. Given that level of competition, there may only be so much room for improvement over the performance of
Days of Future Past.
– Given how well received
X-Men: Days of Future Past was by moviegoers and critics it will be tough for
X-Men: Apocalypse to match the reception to that film.
Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney)
PROS:
– 2010’s
Alice in Wonderland had a break-out performance with a $116.1 million three-day debut and a final domestic gross of $334.2 million. While
Alice Through the Looking Glass is likely to fall off significantly from that performance, it is a very high point to start from.
– His drawing power isn’t what it once was, but Johnny Depp is still a strong draw at the box office, especially when it comes to fantasy roles. And in a fairly similar situation (after a four-year wait in between films), 2011’s
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides performed well at the box office.
– Initial online reaction to the new “white rabbit” trailer for
Alice Through the Looking Glass looks to be quite positive.
CONS:
– Opening against
X-Men: Apocalypse will be tough. In addition, the film will also face competition for family audiences initially from Sony’s
The Angry Birds Movieand from both
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows and fellow Disney release
Finding Dory later in its run.
– The six-year gap between
Alice Through the Looking Glass and its predecessor is likely to limit the film’s potential.
– Grosses for
Alice in Wonderland were boosted significantly by the film’s 3D admissions, especially coming so soon after
Avatar. The 3D boost to grosses for
Alice Through the Looking Glass will likely be a lot less than it was for its predecessor.
Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.
Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
X-Men: Apocalypse May 27, 2016 Fox $124,000,000* $260,000,000
Alice Through the Looking Glass May 27, 2016 Disney $74,000,000* $180,000,000
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising May 20, 2016 Universal $54,000,000 $145,000,000
The Angry Birds Movie May 20, 2016 Sony / Columbia $43,000,000 $140,000,000
The Nice Guys May 20, 2016 Warner Bros. $12,000,000 $37,000,000
Money Monster May 13, 2016 Sony / TriStar $11,000,000 $32,000,000
The Darkness May 13, 2016 High Top / BH Tilt $6,000,000 $13,000,000
Captain America: Civil War May 6, 2016 Disney $167,000,000 $435,000,0