I don’t believe in polls but a lot of Black people finally came to the fucking senses, especially when they seen that project 2025 bullshit and what the Republicans are doing.
My favorite stats prof in grad school used to say this:
Those polls are obsolete the moment they are published, or something to that effect.
When considering a poll, it is IMPERATIVE to know and evaluate the following:
Sample size: a statistical test is strengthened when the sample size is larger. In other words, polling 1,500 when the population exceeds 330 million people is bullshit.
Confidence level (alpha): indicates the percentage of times, given infinite repetitions of random sampling, the statistician is willing to be wrong. 95 percent confidence indicates investigator is willing to accept being wrong 5 percent of the time.
Sampling method: If the sampling is not random, the resulting data is meaningless. Random sampling means that every member of the population from which the sample is taken has an equal chance of being selected for polling.
Nature of the statistical test: a good statistician may be unfamiliar with the mathematic underpinnings of a statistical test. Competency with regard to this is exemplified by the investigators ability to choose the appropriate test for the given situation.
Of course, there are other considerations. I guarantee you that 99.9 percent of the people who wave poll numbers around don't even know what they are waving around.
Also, and far more important that is theoretically SHOULD be, it is IMPERATIVE TO KNOW WHO HAS FINANCED THE STUDY.
Effective pollings costs big bucks. Who do you think generally has the big bucks to finance a national poll?
Food for thought.
Cheers.