Russia’s War Machine Tested by Rift Between Military, Wagner Group
Paramilitary group’s founder is increasingly being sidelined as Moscow recalibrates its war effort
By Matthew LuxmooreFollow
Updated Feb. 21, 2023 at 6:57 pm ET
The paramilitary unit’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has increasingly been sidelined as Moscow recalibrates its war effort.
www.wsj.com
Serious divisions are being exposed in Russia’s war effort amid a deepening public standoff between top military officials and the owner of a paramilitary force fighting alongside the regular army.
The Wagner paramilitary unit, which has ballooned in size since recruiting tens of thousands of convicts from Russian prisons in recent months, has suffered the majority of casualties since it began spearheading a monthslong campaign to take the city of Bakhmut in east Ukraine.
Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has used his force’s battlefield presence to gain sway with the Kremlin, seeking to take credit for victories such as January’s seizure of Soledar north of Bakhmut and the capture of Severodonetsk last summer.
But he is increasingly being sidelined as Moscow recalibrates its war effort, replacing the previous commander overseeing the Ukraine campaign and constraining Mr. Prigozhin’s ability to expand his forces.
Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has openly criticized the Russian military hierarchy for months.
In a series of audio messages posted to his Telegram channel in the past 48 hours, Mr. Prigozhin launched his most direct attacks yet against Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, for allegedly preventing his fighters from getting the ammunition they need to continue their offensive campaign.
“There is simply direct opposition going on, which is nothing more than an attempt to destroy Wagner PMC,” Mr. Prigozhin said, saying the ammunition was sitting in warehouses but officials were preventing it from reaching his men. “It can be equated with treason, at a time when Wagner PMC is fighting for Bakhmut, losing hundreds of its fighters every day.”
Mr. Prigozhin’s attacks came as Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared in Moscow before a hall packed with lawmakers, military officials and religious leaders for a state of the nation speech in which he focused on the continuing military campaign in Ukraine. He also said Moscow would suspend its participation in the last remaining major nuclear-arms-control treaty between the country and the U.S.
Mr. Prigozhin’s accusations preceded a visit by China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, to Moscow on Tuesday afternoon, Russian state news agency TASS reported. Mr. Wang met with Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, and was expected to meet with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday, TASS reported. The U.S. has expressed concern that China may be considering supplying lethal weapons to Russia.
Ukrainian and Western officials had warned of a significant new Russian offensive ahead of the first anniversary of the invasion this week, but Russia has failed to make any significant advances. Mr. Prigozhin’s incendiary claims threaten to further expose cracks in Russia’s faltering war effort, which has largely stalled since the seizure of Severodonetsk last summer.
The comments also leave Mr. Prigozhin himself susceptible to punishment, since any statement deemed to discredit the armed forces can be a criminal offense in Russia. Mr. Prigozhin appeared to acknowledge this in his audio recordings, insisting he wasn’t engaging in extremism or trying to offend anyone.
Earlier this month, Mr. Prigozhin said Wagner will no longer be recruiting convicts from prisons, marking an end to one of the sources of troops that has helped tip the fighting in eastern Ukraine in Moscow’s favor.
Ukraine, meanwhile, says preparations for a new wave of mobilization in Russia are in full swing. Its military intelligence service on Tuesday said it had evidence that a new drive for troops would target university students among other categories of fighting-age men.
A stamped and dated document posted to the service’s website on Tuesday, bearing the name of Tomsk State University in Siberia, lists measures that the school should take to ensure the success of a new mobilization wave. The Wall Street Journal wasn’t able to confirm the documents.
Earlier this month, Ukraine warned that Russia was ready to launch a new mobilization but was struggling to integrate troops it had already drafted and was waiting to gauge the success of a stepped-up offensive ahead of the first anniversary of its invasion this week.
“Everything is ready,” Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, said in an interview on Feb. 11. “The personnel is in place, the lists are ready, the people tasked with carrying out recruitment and training are on standby.”
This also comes amid a flurry of diplomatic visits to Kyiv ahead of the anniversary, with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Tuesday becoming the latest Western leader to visit the Ukrainian capital and reiterate her country’s readiness to shore up Ukraine’s defense.
Following on from President Biden’s visit to Kyiv on Monday, during which he also pledged continued support to Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had discussed with Mr. Biden how to end the war with Russia this year.
“Our defense needs are clear,” Mr. Zelensky said in his nightly video address on Monday. “And what actions are needed for this—first and foremost actions by our fighters on the front line—is also clear to our partners. Only decisiveness is needed.”
Mr. Biden gave a speech to a crowd outside Warsaw’s Royal Castle on Tuesday as part of an effort to rally allies in support of Ukraine. “Brutality will never grind down the will of the free,” he said, and “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never.”