At the very end of July,
Ukrainian forces liberated
Staromaiorske, a tiny village in southeastern Ukraine. It wasn’t a full breakthrough — at least not yet. But it was a real victory in Ukraine’s otherwise lackluster weeks-old
counteroffensive.
Ukraine had tried to tamp down expectations about the counteroffensive long before it had begun. But Kyiv’s
past successes and
Moscow’s past failures, the
deliveries of new advanced Western weapons, and a fresh crop of Western-trained Ukrainian recruits all had a lot of folks very hyped — maybe overly so — about what Kyiv could achieve.
This, despite
sober analysis from plenty of observers who said this counteroffensive would more likely be a slog, especially given the impressive, heavily mined
Russian fortifications along a vast front line. Experts were also uncertain how well Ukrainian troops would be able to maneuver with advanced weapons, like main battle tanks, and whether they could overcome supply and logistics challenges.
The good news is that, weeks into a counteroffensive, we have some clearer answers to those questions. The bad news is those answers were not great, if you’re Ukraine or its backers. Russian fortifications are as formidable as advertised. Western equipment can withstand a lot, but vast minefields are vast minefields, and Kyiv and its newly trained forces have largely failed at conducting combined arms operations on a large scale — that is, coordinating troops and all this different weaponry, like armored vehicles and artillery, to blitz through Russian lines. Kyiv has also
suffered high casualties in its attempts to do so.
And what’s changed now.
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