UPDATE: Donald Trump Takes Office as the 47th US President

DC_Dude

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January 2025 spending 30% higher than January 2024 spending.

$5T tax cut in 4 weeks - with Trump promising not to touch any Medicaid or Medicare (how they were "supposed" to pay for it).

Sovereign Wealth Fund with more borrowed money.

Crypto Strategic Reserve with even more borrowed money.

And you think we're going to fix this shitstorm by cancelling a couple of condom packages to Mozambique?

You dumb fucks.
 

Dota

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BGOL Investor


I read this on Friday. I'm telling you now that this will totally shut government down. After the Clinton hiring freeze in the 90's, most technical implementation was switched over from government workers to contractors. Today the majority of government is just managing contractors. They say it's two contractors for every government worker. At the same time they been stripping down contracts before this was even announced.
 

DC_Dude

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I read this on Friday. I'm telling you now that this will totally shut government down. After the Clinton hiring freeze in the 90's, most technical implementation was switched over from government workers to contractors. Today the majority of government is just managing contractors. They say it's two contractors for every government worker. At the same time they been stripping down contracts before this was even announced.

I am not familiar with government contracting, but couldn't those consultant agencies pivot to items or work that aligns with this administration? Just curious
 

darth frosty

Dark Lord of the Sith
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Wells Fargo economists analyzed the potential impact of the Trump administration's efforts to reduce the size of the federal workforce on the labor market.



Investing.com -- In a report released Thursday, Wells Fargo economists analyzed the potential impact of the Trump administration's efforts to reduce the size of the federal workforce on the labor market.
The administration has prioritized workforce reduction since taking office, employing strategies such as a hiring freeze, deferred resignations, and layoffs. Despite these measures, federal employment constitutes a small portion of the total U.S. payrolls at 1.5%, excluding the Post Office.

Over the past year, the federal government, without the Post Office, added approximately 4,000 jobs to the economy, a fraction of the 168,000 net jobs created. The hiring freeze, which has been partially offset by exemptions for certain government activities, is anticipated to contribute to a decrease in federal employment as hiring halts while natural attrition continues.
In late January, the administration offered federal employees the option to resign with pay and benefits through September 30, 2025, with about 75,000 workers opting for deferred resignation.
Although there is no comprehensive tracking of the layoffs, especially of "probationary" employees, Wells Fargo estimates that the reduction in federal employment due to layoffs could be between 10,000 and 100,000.
“Our best guess is that between the hiring freeze and recent layoffs, total federal employment will decline by 25K-50K over the next few months,” economists led by Sarah House noted.
“This would be in addition to the 75K or so workers who enrolled in the deferred resignation program and will roll off the federal government's payroll on September 30,” they added.
The economists also expect indirect effects on private sector employment, particularly among businesses contracting with the federal government, though they believe the impact on job growth will be modest.
According to Wells Fargo, the February jobs report is likely to show a decrease in federal payrolls by 5,000 to 10,000, with larger reductions expected in the March and April data as layoffs coincide with the ongoing hiring freeze. This could lead to a slight increase in the unemployment rate in the near term.
The bank stresses that these estimates carry significant uncertainty, citing legal challenges to layoffs and potential reversals of decisions by the administration. They also highlight that their projections do not account for future workforce reductions that may be announced.
“On net, we see the steps taken thus far to reduce federal employment as exerting only a modest dampening effect on payrolls in the coming months, but they are consistent with our expectation for the jobs market to cool somewhat further this year,” economists concluded.
 

DC_Dude

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Warren Buffett calls Trump’s tariffs a tax on goods, says ‘the Tooth Fairy doesn’t pay ‘em’​

Published Sun, Mar 2 202512:28 PM EST
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Yun Li@YunLi626
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Warren Buffett at a press conference during the Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders Meeting on April 30, 2022.

Warren Buffett at a press conference during the Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders Meeting on April 30, 2022.
CNBC
Legendary investor Warren Buffett made a rare comment on President Donald Trump’s tariffs, saying punitive duties could trigger inflation and hurt consumers.
“Tariffs are actually, we’ve had a lot of experience with them. They’re an act of war, to some degree,” said Buffett, whose conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway has large businesses in insurance, railroad, manufacturing, energy and retail. He made the remarks in an interview with CBS News’ Norah O’Donnell for a new documentary on the late publisher of the Washington Post, Katharine Graham.

“Over time, they are a tax on goods. I mean, the Tooth Fairy doesn’t pay ’em!” Buffett said with a laughter. “And then what? You always have to ask that question in economics. You always say, ‘And then what?’”
This marks the first public remark from the 94-year-old “Oracle of Omaha” on Trump’s trade policies. Last week, Trump announced that the sweeping 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada will go into effect March 4 and that China will be charged an additional 10% tariff on the same date. China has vowed to retaliate.
During Trump’s first term, the Berkshire chair and CEO opined at length in 2018 and 2019 about the trade conflicts that erupted, warning that the Republican’s aggressive moves could cause negative consequences globally.
When asked about the current state of the economy by CBS, Buffett refrained from commenting on it directly.
“Well, I think that’s the most interesting subject in the world, but I won’t talk, I can’t talk about it, though. I really can’t,” Buffett said.

Buffett has been in a defensive mode over the past year as he rapidly dumped stocks and raised a record amount of cash. Some read Buffett’s conservative moves as a bearish call on the market and the economy, while others believe he’s preparing the conglomerate for his successor by paring outsized positions and building up cash.
Market volatility has ramped up as of late as concerns grew about a slowing economy, unpredictable policy changes from Trump as well as overall stock valuations. The S&P 500 is up just about 1% this year.
 

Dota

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I am not familiar with government contracting, but couldn't those consultant agencies pivot to items or work that aligns with this administration? Just curious

They already are by them getting rid of DEI programs in order to maintain their current government contracts because of the racist ass Executive Orders (I can't think of one of those top 10 who has kept their DEI program so far). :lol:

Yes these companies have commercial contracts but government is where they eat. Just about every technical government implementation that's done starts out as a RFP (request for proposal). This states what the government wants and contractors respond with their bids by putting a proposal together of how they'll do the work and for what amount. Of course the top 10 companies can't get everything so some contracts are designated for small businesses (this is were I saw those Indian cats eating lovely). Some contracts are awarded to companies in multiple year contracts or they can split the work.

An example would be the JEDI program which awarded cloud work to Amazon.

$10 BILLION Dollars

Because Trump hated Besos so much he had the contract scrapped and rebid in which it was split between 4 companies the second time. This was during Trump's 1st term as president.
 

DC_Dude

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They already are by them getting rid of DEI programs in order to maintain their current government contracts because of the racist ass Executive Orders (I can't think of one of those top 10 who has kept their DEI program so far). :lol:

Yes these companies have commercial contracts but government is where they eat. Just about every technical government implementation that's done starts out as a RFP (request for proposal). This states what the government wants and contractors respond with their bids by putting a proposal together of how they'll do the work and for what amount. Of course the top 10 companies can't get everything so some contracts are designated for small businesses (this is were I saw those Indian cats eating lovely). Some contracts are awarded to companies in multiple year contracts or they can split the work.

An example would be the JEDI program which awarded cloud work to Amazon.

$10 BILLION Dollars

Because Trump hated Besos so much he had the contract scrapped and rebid in which it was split between 4 companies the second time. This was during Trump's 1st term as president.
Ok gotcha.

That was helpful.
 

MasonPH650

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
I read this on Friday. I'm telling you now that this will totally shut government down. After the Clinton hiring freeze in the 90's, most technical implementation was switched over from government workers to contractors. Today the majority of government is just managing contractors. They say it's two contractors for every government worker. At the same time they been stripping down contracts before this was even announced.
I was a COTR, which means I managed contacts. I'm an engineer but rarely do engineers in the government do real engineering work. That hasn't been true in decades. That's why we have a hard time keeping young engineers. They can do actual engineering work with the contractor base and make nearly twice as much.
 

Dota

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
I was a COTR, which means I managed contacts. I'm an engineer but rarely do engineers in the government do real engineering work. That hasn't been true in decades. That's why we have a hard time keeping young engineers. They can do actual engineering work with the contractor base and make nearly twice as much.

Bro I've seen it and lived it until I said enough with the bullshit. It became too many moving goal post in trying to get promoted. I gained many opportunities as a fed but too many young white dudes were getting SIS level promotions in their early 40s and they would be the shot callers for the next 20 years.
 
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